The race for the NBA Rookie of the Year award is shaping up to be one of the most exciting storylines of the new season. Several top prospects from the 2025 draft class have already flashed star potential in both Summer League and preseason action, while others are poised to make an immediate impact for their new teams.

Before diving into the early favorites and sleepers, make sure to check out our NBA Championship predictions and today’s NBA picks for expert analysis throughout the season.

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

The latest odds for the NBA Rookie of the Year, provided by top sports betting sites, are as follows:​

Experts believed the 2025 draft class was among the most talented in recent memory. While that may be the case, we do have a clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner, per the early odds. That would be none other than Cooper Flagg, who shockingly wound up going to the Dallas Mavericks after they won the lottery despite long odds. Flagg has been heralded for years as one of the NBA’s next megastars, and he’s a heavy favorite to take home top rookie honors at -180.

That said, the chalk doesn’t always hit. While Flagg looks like a can’t-miss based on those odds, there’s an awful lot of value out there if you’re looking to fade him at that number. Let’s do a deeper dive into how the race may unfold, shall we? 

For those looking to delve deeper into betting strategies, consulting insights from the best handicappers can provide valuable perspectives. Additionally, keeping an eye on the latest NBA odds is essential for making informed decisions.​

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NBA Rookie of the Year Contenders

The following players are considered the favorites to win the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year race:

Cooper Flagg (-180)

Cooper Flagg only spent one season in college, but he showed why he was the No. 1 prospect in his class coming out of high school. In 37 games for the Duke Blue Devils, Flagg averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and better than a block and steals per game. The 6’9” forward won the Naismith National Player of the Year, becoming the first true freshman since Zion Williamson in 2019 to do so. 

Scouts love Flagg’s versatility and tenacity on both ends of the floor. He has the size to guard just about every position on the floor, and his ability to stuff the stat sheet should make him a compelling Rookie of the Year candidate for voters. Through 3 preseason games for Dallas, Flagg is averaging 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in just over 20 minutes per game. 

While most No. 1 picks find themselves on poor teams by default, this isn’t the case for Flagg. In Dallas, he’ll be surrounded by a veteran-laden team alongside at least 3 future Hall-of-Fame players in Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, and, eventually, Kyrie Irving. Flagg will do plenty of the ball-handling for as long as Irving remains sidelined with his knee injury suffered last season, but he’s unlikely to play a high-usage role offensively with Dallas having a few more established NBA-caliber players around him.

As a result, it’s not unreasonable to think some other rookies could be poised to put up more impressive statistical seasons, even if Flagg’s contributions are coming for a potential playoff team. While I understand why he’s a -180 favorite, I’d be reluctant to go in on him at such heavy odds before the season even begins.

Tre Johnson (+1000)

Speaking of rookies who may put up more impressive on-paper numbers, enter Tre Johnson. The 19-year-old was the No. 6 pick in the draft out of Texas by the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are firmly in the midst of a rebuilding effort, so it’s safe to assume Johnson will get ample playing time right away. Washington also traded away last season’s leading scorer – Jordan Poole – which should clear more playing time for some of the team’s youngsters.

While the Wiz are still a bit heavy on guards – including Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, and CJ McCollum – they’d be silly to not give Johnson a sizable role from the jump. Last season with the Longhorns, he was one of the most electrifying scorers in the nation. The 19-year-old averaged nearly 20 points per game as a true freshman, and he’s arguably the most athletic player in the ‘25 class. He took home SEC Freshman of the Year honors in his lone season in Austin.

Johnson shot an efficient 39.7 percent from 3-point range in college. Combine that with his explosiveness and ability to beat defenders off the dribble and you’ve got the recipe for a versatile scorer capable of contributing at all 3 levels. I do think efficiency could be an issue as a rookie considering his occasionally-erratic shot selection in college, but the Wizards are in a position to give him as many minutes as he can handle and live with the growing pains.

I see why Johnson is the 2nd favorite at +1000, but let’s see what else is out there.

Ace Bailey (+1000)

Ace Bailey spent much of his freshman season jockeying with Rutgers teammate Dylan Harper in a race to see who would wind up as the No. 2 pick in the draft behind Flagg. Harper ultimately won that race, yet it’s Bailey who enters his initial pro season with the slightly better Rookie of the Year odds (+1000). 

Bailey wound up falling to the Utah Jazz with the No. 5 pick. The 6’8” forward is a pure scorer who often draws comparisons to Carmelo Anthony. That may be a blessing – Melo is a Hall-of-Famer, after all – but also a curse. Anthony wasn’t much of a playmaker, often choosing to seek his own shot rather than setting up teammates. We saw plenty of that from Bailey in Rutgers, which is part of why he ultimately saw his stock dip slightly on draft night.

As is the case with Johnson, though, a lack of opportunity this season should not be a problem. Despite entering a rebuild several years ago following the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert trades, the Jazz are still in search of their next franchise cornerstone. They’ve whiffed on their fair share of premium draft picks in recent years, though Bailey is arguably the most touted prospect they’ve landed. 

Through 3 preseason games, Bailey’s shown a knack for putting points on the board. He averaged 22.5 points in north of 30 minutes per game through his first couple of warmup outings, though he sputtered to 3 points on dismal 1-for-5 shooting in his most recent game. Rather than giving him the ball at the top of the key and asking him to break down defenders, the Jazz are scheming to get Bailey the ball when he’s on the move, often coming off of screens. Not only does that let Bailey use his athleticism to his advantage, but it also helps him to generate clean looks against scrambling defenders, which should help his efficiency. He took just 28 dribbles to get to his first 29 shots in the preseason, which is a fantastic sign.

Because he should average well north of 30 minutes per game for a team starved for scoring, I love the value we’re getting with Ace’s +1000 Rookie of the Year odds.

Dylan Harper (+1100)

While Bailey has drawn rave reviews early on, we’ve heard similar takes on Dylan Harper to start his NBA preseason career. The No. 2 pick in the draft will be paired with Victor Wembanyama on the San Antonio Spurs, who have outside aspirations at nabbing a Western Conference playoff spot.

Harper’s fit with the Spurs was a little questionable given the presence of a similar young guard in De’Aaron Fox, but Fox’s injury absence early in the season should give Harper a chance to play a larger-than-expected role right away. Harper has elite size for a lead guard at 6’6”, yet he plays with poise well beyond his years. He’s drawn some comparisons to James Harden, which is awfully high praise for a teenager.

The Spurs have also produced back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners in Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, so there’s precedent here. That said, Harper’s path to playing time isn’t quite as clear as those of a couple of other first-year players

We think the following players offer betting value to win the NBA ROY based on their current odds and projected seasons:

NBA ROY Betting Value

We think the following players offer betting value to win the NBA ROY based on their current odds and projected seasons:

Kon Knueppel (+1500)

While Flagg was the clear-cut top prospect coming out of Duke, he was far from the only Blue Devil to hear his name called in the first round. His teammate, Kon Knueppel, went with the No. 4 overall pick to the Charlotte Hornets.

Knueppel was hailed by scouts as the best shooting prospect in the class, and we’ve seen glimpses of that so far in the preseason. He led the Hornets with 18 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder in his very first game, and he should have ample playing time as a part of a constantly retootling Charlotte franchise.

That said, usage could be a sore spot for Knueppel’s Rookie of the Year case. Charlotte has an established offensive hierarchy already in place with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller likely to dominate touches. Miles Bridges is also still here, and the veteran forward will also command touches. That could leave Knueppel out in the cold offensively, and he’s unlikely to initiate offense as consistently as he did last season in Durham.

If Knueppel is relegated to being a spot-up shooter and something like the Hornets’ No. 4 option offensively, he’s going to have a tough time beating the rest of the field for Rookie of the Year honors.

Jeremiah Fears (+4000)

Jeremiah Fears is a talented enough prospect to go first overall in some drafts. However, due to the strength of the ‘25 class, the Oklahoma product slid all the way to the New Orleans Pelicans at No. 7. Early returns suggest the Pels may have gotten a steal.

In Tuesday’s preseason game against a talented Houston Rockets defense, Fears contributed 20 points on efficient 8-for-15 shooting from the floor. For good measure, he added 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and a couple of steals, all in just 22 minutes of action. Fears is likely to come off the bench, but he should have a role leading the second unit, especially with Dejounte Murray expected to be sidelined until around January due to an Achilles injury.

The Pelicans are another potentially crowded offense with Poole and Zion Williamson among those soaking up usage, but I think Willie Green is going to have a very tough time keeping the rookie off the floor. While his long distance shooting is still a work in progress, Fears’ quickness should help him score consistently, even against bigger NBA defenders. He averaged better than 17 points per game as a freshman in Norman despite connecting on just under 29 percent of his looks from 3-point range.

While Rookie of the Year is a bit of a long shot, we are getting pretty interesting value here at Fears’ +4000 odds.

The Top NBA Rookie of the Year Longshot

The Portland Trail Blazers certainly raised some eyebrows when they selected Yang Hansen (+5000) with the 16th pick in the draft back in July. Hansen was tapped by most draftniks as a likely second-rounder, yet Portland pulled the trigger on the big man just after the lottery. It was a particularly shocking move considering the Blazers used last year’s lottery pick on another seven-footer, Donovan Clingan.

However, it may be the Blazers who ultimately get the last laugh. Hansen is a behemoth at 7’1” and 260 pounds, yet he’s hardly a lumbering oaf out there. Hansen was one of the most talked-about players at the Las Vegas Summer League after he averaged 10.8 points, 5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.2 blocks, and 1.4 steals across 4 games.

Hansen is an incredibly gifted passer, and his ability to find his teammates drew immediate comparisons to 3-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. In his second game of preseason action against the Sacramento Kings, Hansen contributed 16 points (5-for-8 shooting) along with 4 rebounds and 3 blocks in only 17 minutes of action. I think he’s likely to be fairly inconsistent, as is the case with most rookie bigs, but he has already shown impressive polish for what most believed was a very raw prospect entering the league. Playing time could also be a concern, as he’s likely to start the season as Clingan’s backup. Robert Williams II could also eat into his minutes when healthy. 

Hansen’s best attribute is his passing ability, but he’s got a ways to go in other areas. Scoring will come and go against NBA-caliber defenses, while he may be overmatched defensively as he acclimates to the speed of the league at first. I think he’s an extreme long shot given the quality of this rookie class, but you can do worse than a low-dollar flier at Hansen’s +5000 odds here.

NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions

Flagg is a clear favorite. While it’s hard to bet against him, I’m really not a fan of the -180 odds. He’d likely be closer to a -500 favorite in a weaker class like the one we saw come out last season, but Flagg has serious competition elsewhere. 

Fears, Johnson, and Harper are all viable contenders, but my favorite bet on the board is Ace Bailey at +1000. In Utah, he’ll be blessed with no shortage of playing time, and he’s likely to be a focal point of the team’s offense from the jump, given the absence of other more established options. Mix in a capable young coach in Will Hardy, scheming to put Bailey in a position to succeed, and you’ve got a recipe for a potentially outstanding campaign for a young NBA debutant.

I understand why you may want to bet Flagg, but I’m all about Bailey, given the discrepancy in the betting value.

Bet: Ace Bailey (+1000)

NBA Rookie of the Year Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NBA Rookie of the Year winners: