Nets vs Knicks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Nets at +575. Our number gives Brooklyn at Madison Square Garden 22.3%; the price gives them 14.2%.

The Brooklyn Nets are +575 and the New York Knicks -850 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 14.2% for Brooklyn and 85.8% for New York. Last season’s home and road records put Brooklyn 8.1 points higher than that. We bet at a gap of 5.

How 77.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. New York played one, and Brooklyn played none.

The Knicks went 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, a 75.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Nets went 8-33 on the road and lost 33 of 41, an 80.5% road loss rate. The average is 77.7% for New York and 22.3% for Brooklyn.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -850 and +575 the pair adds to 104.3%. With the margin taken out, the Knicks are 85.8% and the Nets 14.2%. Ours is 22.3%. The 8.1-point gap is the whole argument.

This season has started badly for both teams, and none of it is in our number. The Knicks are 2-4, 1-2 at home, and lost 98-93 at the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday 30 October. The Nets are 0-5, 0-2 on the road, and lost 110-94 to the Detroit Pistons on the same night. Six games and five games prove nothing as rates. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so it also cannot see what changed over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.

New York at home, Brooklyn on the road

At home the Knicks scored 119.0 points a game and allowed 109.0, a surplus of 10.0. The Nets on the road scored 103.5 and allowed 116.8, a deficit of 13.3.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Brooklyn at home went 12-29, scoring 108.4 and allowing 115.0. New York on the road went 22-19, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0.

The season around it

Over the full 2025-26 season the Knicks finished 53-29, third in the East. They scored 116.5 a game and allowed 110.1, a difference of 6.4. The Nets finished 20-62, 13th in the East. They scored 105.9 and allowed 115.9, a difference of minus 10.0.

The margins split the same way. New York won by 10 or more 32 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times. Brooklyn won by 10 or more 12 times and lost by 10 or more 43 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, the Knicks went 11-5 and the Nets 2-12.

In the playoffs New York beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1. Brooklyn missed the playoffs.

The Knicks won the four meetings. Two were in New York: the Knicks won 134-98 on 9 November 2025 and 120-66 on 21 January 2026. Those games are in our number, two of the Knicks’ 40 home games and two of the Nets’ 41 road games. In Brooklyn the Knicks won 113-100 on 24 November 2025 and 93-92 on 20 March 2026. Those are in neither half.

Pick: Nets +575

Bet the Nets on the moneyline at +575. The gap is 8.1 points toward Brooklyn, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Nets +575 and Knicks -850 on 1 November 2026 at 23:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, Nets +575 and Knicks -850, so it has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Brooklyn price. At +477 or longer the Nets are a bet whatever New York is priced at. With the Knicks at -850, they stay a bet down to +433.

For the Knicks to become the bet, their price would have to drift to -266 or longer. It is -850.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 1 November 2026 at 23:31 UTC, has Jose Alvarado (ankle) out for New York. For Brooklyn it has Mikel Brown Jr. (rest), Egor Demin (leg) and Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) out. Our method has no key-player rule for the NBA, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Brooklyn a 77.7% chance of losing. The case is that +575 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 222.5, over -110 and under -110. The Knicks’ home games went over 222.5 in 23 of 40, and the Nets’ road games in 16 of 41. New York’s home games averaged 228.0 points, and Brooklyn’s road games averaged 220.3.

That is 57.5% and 39.0%, an average of 48.3% for the over. The market prices the over at 50.0%, so our count leans to the under by 1.7 points. That is under the threshold. Pass on the total.

The spread is Knicks -14.5 at -110 and Nets +14.5 at -110. It opened at the same number. New York won at home by 15 or more in 14 of 40 games. Brooklyn on the road won, or lost by 14 or fewer, in 22 of 41. Averaged, Knicks -14.5 lands 40.7% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 9.3 points toward Nets +14.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Nets at +575.

Nets at Knicks, Monday 2 November, 7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 23:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026, 23:31 UTC.