NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyPOR+4.5U 231.5+136DEN-4.5O 231.5-162
NBA · Monday 2 November
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Nuggets at home. Our number gives Denver 62.2%, the price gives 59.3%, and a 2.9-point gap is short of the 5 we need.
The Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets tips off Monday 2 November at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena. DraftKings has the Nuggets -162 and the Trail Blazers +136. With the margin out, that is 59.3% for Denver and 40.7% for Portland. Our number sits 2.9 points toward the Nuggets. We bet at 5, so this is a pass.
How 62.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Neither team played one.
The Nuggets went 28-13 at Ball Arena, a 68.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Trail Blazers went 18-23 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate over 41 games. The average is 62.2% for Denver and 37.8% for Portland.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the pair comes to 104.2%. Taken out, the Nuggets are 59.3% and the Trail Blazers 40.7%.
None of this season is in our number. Denver is 3-2, 1-1 at home, and last won 127-120 at the Phoenix Suns on Friday 30 October. Portland is 4-1, 3-0 on the road, and last won 112-90 at the Utah Jazz on Saturday 31 October. Five games prove nothing, and the method reads 2025-26 only.
Denver at home, Portland on the road
At home the Nuggets scored 120.8 points a game and allowed 115.2, a margin of 5.6. On the road the Trail Blazers scored 112.7 and allowed 116.8, a margin of -4.1. Those are the two halves the method uses.
The halves it leaves out: Denver on the road went 26-15, scoring 123.3 and allowing 118.6. Portland at home went 24-17, scoring 118.3 and allowing 114.8. The Trail Blazers were a different team in their own arena, and this game is not in it.
The season around it
Denver finished 54-28, third in the West, with a point difference of 5.2 a game. Portland finished 42-40, seventh, at -0.3 a game. In the playoffs the Nuggets lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Trail Blazers lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Denver went 15-13 and Portland 11-12. The Nuggets played 9 overtime games and the Trail Blazers 3. Denver won by 10 or more 28 times and lost by 10 or more 9 times; Portland’s counts were 23 and 18.
The Nuggets won three of the four meetings. In Denver, they won 128-112 on 22 March and 137-132 in overtime on 6 April; those games are in our number, two of Denver’s 41 home games and two of Portland’s 41 road games. In Portland, the Trail Blazers won 109-107 on 31 October 2025 and the Nuggets won 157-103 on 20 February; those are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 2.9 points toward the Nuggets, against a threshold of 5. The price is close to what last season’s home and road records say it should be.
The line read Nuggets -162 and Trail Blazers +136 on 1 November 2026 at 23:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so there has been no move since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer Denver price makes a bet. At -133 or longer the Nuggets are a bet whatever Portland is priced at; against the current Portland price of +136, the figure is -131.
For the Trail Blazers to become the bet, the price has to drift a long way. At +205 or longer they are a bet whatever Denver is priced at; against the current Denver price of -162, the figure is +231.
ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026 at 23:31 UTC, lists Ja Morant (hamstring) and Shaedon Sharpe (knee) out for Portland, and Alpha Diallo (personal), Spencer Jones (hamstring) and Julian Strawther (knee) out for Denver. No absence on the list re-runs our method, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 231.5, over -110 and under -110. Denver’s home games went over 231.5 in 26 of 41 and Portland’s road games in 18 of 41. Across all 82 games the counts were 56 for the Nuggets and 43 for the Trail Blazers. Denver’s home games averaged 236.0 points and Portland’s road games 229.5.
That is 63.4% and 43.9%, an average of 53.7% for the over. The market prices the over at 50.0%, so our count leans over by 3.7 points. That is below 5, and the method stakes the moneyline only. Pass.
The spread is Nuggets -4.5 at -108 and Trail Blazers +4.5 at -112, unchanged from the open. Counted against that line, Denver’s home games give 23 of 41 and Portland’s road games 21 of 41. Nuggets -4.5 lands 52.4% of the time against 49.6% priced, a lean of 2.9 points. A lean, not a bet. No bet on this game.
Trail Blazers at Nuggets, Monday 2 November, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena, Denver. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 23:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 1 November 2026, 23:31 UTC.