NBA
NBA · Tuesday 27 October
Pistons vs Knicks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has the Pistons 4.9 points underpriced, and we bet at 5.
The Detroit Pistons are +130 and the New York Knicks -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 41.7% for Detroit and 58.3% for New York. Our prediction gives Detroit 46.6%. The gap is 4.9 points toward the Pistons, and our rule needs 5.0 before it stakes anything.
How 46.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. Each team played one, and both are left out.
The Knicks went 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, a 75.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Pistons went 28-13 on the road, a 31.7% road loss rate over 41 games. The average is 53.4% for New York and 46.6% for Detroit.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At +130 and -155 the pair comes to 104.3%. With that taken out, the Knicks are 58.3% and the Pistons 41.7%.
The 2026-27 season is not in our number. Detroit is 3-0, 2-0 on the road, and last won 106-93 at the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday 25 October. New York is 0-3, 0-2 at home, and last lost 111-102 to the Orlando Magic on the same day. Three games each is too few to measure anything, and the method does not try.
New York at home, Detroit on the road
At home the Knicks scored 119.0 points a game and allowed 109.0, a margin of 10.0. On the road the Pistons scored 116.8 and allowed 111.0, a margin of 5.8.
The halves the method leaves out favour Detroit too. The Pistons went 31-9 at home, scoring 118.6 and allowing 108.2. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0.
The season around it
Detroit finished 60-22, the first seed in the Eastern Conference, and outscored opponents by 8.2 points a game (117.8 to 109.6). New York finished 53-29, the third seed, at plus 6.4 a game (116.5 to 110.1). The Pistons won 34 games by 10 or more and lost 8 that way. The Knicks won 32 by 10 or more and lost 19.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New York went 11-5 and Detroit 14-10. Detroit played 5 overtime games, New York 2. In the playoffs the Knicks beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1. The Pistons beat the Orlando Magic 4-3 and lost to Cleveland 4-3.
Detroit won all three games between the teams last season. Two were in Detroit: 121-90 on Monday 5 January 2026 and 118-80 on Friday 6 February 2026. Those are in neither half. The third was in New York, 126-111 to the Pistons on Thursday 19 February 2026, and it is in our number as one of the Knicks’ 40 home games and one of the Pistons’ 41 road games.
Pick: No bet
No bet. The gap is 4.9 points toward the Pistons, against a threshold of 5.0. A rule with a threshold has to hold at the edge, or it is no rule.
The line read Pistons +130 and Knicks -155 on 27 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Pistons +136 and Knicks -162, when the market gave Detroit 40.7%. Since opening it has moved toward the Pistons by 1.0 point, which is exactly what keeps this short of a bet.
The price is close to right by our measure. Last season’s road record says Detroit wins this game 46.6% of the time; the market says 41.7%. That difference is real but smaller than the error we allow for a method built on two win rates from one season.
What kills the bet
A longer Detroit price turns this into a bet. Against the current Knicks price of -155, the Pistons are a bet at +131 or longer. The price is +130. Whatever New York is priced at, Detroit is a bet at +141 or longer.
For the Knicks to become the bet, the price would have to go a long way the other way. Against the current Pistons price of +130, New York needs +145 or longer. Whatever Detroit is priced at, New York needs +107 or longer.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 27 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Jalen Duren (hamstring) out for Detroit, with Isaiah Joe (hip) and Ausar Thompson (ankle) day-to-day. Jose Alvarado (ankle) is out for New York. The list does not change our number, which reads last season’s results only. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 219.5, over -108 and under -112. The Knicks’ home games went over 219.5 in 24 of 40, a 60.0% rate, and averaged 228.0 points. The Pistons’ road games went over in 27 of 41, 65.9%, and averaged 227.8. Across all 82 games, New York went over in 47 and Detroit in 51.
Averaged, our count puts the over at 62.9%. With the margin removed the market has the over at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, a gap of 13.4 points toward the over. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Knicks -3.5 at -108 and Pistons +3.5 at -112, unchanged from the open. New York at home beat that line in 27 of 40 games. Detroit on the road beat it in 31 of 41. Averaged, Knicks -3.5 lands 45.9% of the time against 49.6% priced, a gap of 3.6 points toward Pistons +3.5. That is a lean too, and a smaller one than the moneyline gap we have already passed on. No bet on this game.
Pistons at Knicks, Tuesday 27 October, 8:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.