Titans at Ravens Final Score: Ravens Win 24-18

Final: Baltimore Ravens 24, Tennessee Titans 18, Sunday 4 October at M&T Bank Stadium.

Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Baltimore has gone from 8.5 to 11.5, and that is too close to my number. No bet on this spread.”

What decided it

Baltimore won the second quarter by 17. Baltimore turned the ball over 0 times to Tennessee’s 2, and gained 384 yards to 297.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is BAL -11.5, with a total of 41.5. Baltimore did not cover as the favourite. The 42 points went over the total.

What comes next

Tennessee plays next against the Houston Texans on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Baltimore plays next at the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “No bet on Ravens -11.5 – Titans at Ravens prediction, odds and best picks”.

Baltimore has gone from 8.5 to 11.5, and that is too close to my number. No bet on this spread.

My number is plain arithmetic. I take each team’s points differential per game from last season, subtract one from the other, and set the result against the spread. When the spread sits two points or more away from my number, it is a bet. Inside two points, I pass.

Pick: no bet at Ravens -11.5

Tennessee went 3-14 last season and was outscored by 194 points. Baltimore went 8-9 and finished plus 26. Per game, that is minus 11.4 against plus 1.5. The gap is just under 13 points, and the market asks for 11.5.

A point and a half is inside my two-point bar. The market has arrived at nearly the same number I have, and there is nothing left over to take. Tennessee scored 16.7 a game last season and allowed 28.1. Those are the figures of a team that should be a double-digit underdog, and it is one.

Where the price has gone

Baltimore was first seen at -8.5 on 16 September. By 23 September -10 and -10.5 were showing, and on 28 September all nine US sportsbooks in that read hung -11.5. On 1 October all 11 books in the read still do, DraftKings among them, the same on ESPN. That is three points of movement toward Baltimore in under two weeks.

At -8.5 my rule would have backed Baltimore, with a gap of four and a half points. That price has gone, and I am not chasing it.

Every price on this page is the median of the books in the 1 October read, taken at 07:10 UTC. Kickoff is Sunday 4 October at 1:00 PM ET, so there is time for the number to come back.

A bet again at Ravens -10.5, or at Titans +15. From 11 to 14.5, pass.

The case for Tennessee, and why it falls short

If I wanted to talk myself into Tennessee +11.5, I would start with this season. The Titans are 0-3, but the losses were 23-10 to the Jets, 24-20 to Philadelphia and 12-7 at the Giants. Two of the three were decided by five points or fewer.

Then I would look at where this game is played. Baltimore went 3-6 at home last season, scoring 21.9 a game and allowing 25.4, and it was far better on the road at 5-3. It has lost its only home game this season, 24-17 to New Orleans. Tennessee on the road last season went 2-6, scoring 15.0 and allowing 29.0.

Put Baltimore’s home figures against Tennessee’s road figures and it comes out at about ten and a half points. That is a point closer to the Titans than the price. One point is still inside my bar, so it stays a pass.

The total

Forty-two and a half, and no bet. Ten books hang 42.5 and one hangs 43. On Monday it was 43.5.

The history leans over. Baltimore’s games went over 42.5 in 12 of 17 last season and Tennessee’s in 11 of 17. The market has gone the other way: totals as high as 47.5 were first seen on 16 September.

This season is the case for the move. Tennessee’s three games have totalled 33, 44 and 19 points. Three games against 17 is not enough for me to bet either direction.

What the moneyline says

The median moneylines are Tennessee +494 and Baltimore -714. With the bookmaker margin taken out, that is a 16.1 percent chance for Tennessee to win outright.

I am not paying -714 for anything. Tennessee won 3 of 17 last season, about 18 percent, so +494 is close to fair and no gift either way.

Last season, game by game

Baltimore won by 12 points or more six times in 17 games last season. Tennessee lost by 12 or more eight times. Both rows sit close to the number the market has hung, which is the whole reason I am out.

One more figure from that chart. Only five of Tennessee’s 17 games last season finished inside seven points either way, and the same was true of Baltimore. Neither team played many close games, which is why I would rather wait for a number than guess at the margin.

No bet at Ravens -11.5. In at -10.5 on Baltimore, or +15 on Tennessee.

Injury report

From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.

Tennessee Titans: Questionable: John Franklin-Myers (DE, back), Tony Pollard (RB, foot), Tyjae Spears (RB, ankle); on injured reserve: Jackson Slater (G, foot), Fernando Carmona (G, ankle – sprain), Milo Eifler (LB, undisclosed), Kendell Brooks (S, undisclosed), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, undisclosed), Dorian Mausi (LB, undisclosed), Joshua Williams (CB, pectoral), Jaylen Harrell (LB, knee – acl), Jaren Kanak (TE, pectoral).

Baltimore Ravens: Out: Jovaughn Gwyn (G, lower leg – surgery), Ethan Pocic (C, knee); questionable: Chris Moore (WR, ankle), Durham Smythe (TE, heel), Zay Flowers (WR, hamstring), John Simpson (G, groin), Lamar Jackson (QB, back), Marlon Humphrey (CB, hamstring), Trey Hendrickson (LB, finger – fracture), Ronnie Stanley (OT, toe); on injured reserve: T.J. Tampa (CB, knee), Ja’Kobi Lane (WR, wrist – surgery), Bilhal Kone (CB, lower body), Adam Randall (RB, undisclosed), Danny Pinter (C, knee – surgery), Jahquez Robinson (S, undisclosed), Skylar Thompson (QB, undisclosed).