NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyNE+7U 50.5+245BUF-7O 50.5-305
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Patriots at Bills Final Score: Patriots Win 29-26
Final: New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26, Sunday 4 October at Highmark Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “The pick is New England +7 where it is dealt, and +6.5 is still a bet.” Patriots +7 won: New England won by 3.
What decided it
New England won the first quarter by 7. New England turned the ball over 2 times to Buffalo’s 2, and gained 405 yards to 340.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 29 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 26 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is BUF -7, with a total of 49.5. Buffalo did not cover as the favourite. The 55 points went over the total.
What comes next
New England plays next against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Buffalo plays next at the Los Angeles Rams on Monday 12 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the Patriots +7 – Patriots at Bills prediction, odds and best picks”.
Buffalo -6.5 is about five and a half points longer than last season’s rates support. The pick is New England +7 where it is dealt, and +6.5 is still a bet.
The price has moved three to four points in twelve days. On 16 September books had Buffalo at -3 and -4. By 28 September the median of 10 US sportsbooks was -7. On 1 October at 07:10 UTC the median of 11 was -6.5, with six books at -6.5 and five at -7. The line history does not record which book dealt the first number, so I can give the date and not the name.
The number the argument rests on
New England scored 28.8 points a game in 2025 and allowed 18.8, a differential of +170 over 17 games. Buffalo scored 28.3 and allowed 21.5, a differential of +116. Per game, that is +10.0 for New England and +6.8 for Buffalo.
My method in one clause: half the gap between the two per-game differentials, plus two and a half points for home field. The gap is 3.2 in New England’s favour. Half of it is 1.6. Add home field and this game prices at Buffalo by about one point. The market has six and a half.
That is an edge of about five and a half points. My threshold is two points. Below two I pass, because a season-rate estimate carries more error than that.
Pick: Patriots +7
The move came in steps: -5.5 first appeared on 23 September, and -7 and -6.5 on 28 September. I cannot price the reason for it, and I am not going to guess at one.
Seven matters. At +7 a Buffalo win by exactly a touchdown is a push, and at +6.5 it is a loss. Five books still deal New England +7: LowVig at -109, BetMGM, Bovada and Fanatics at -115, and BetUS at -120. DraftKings has +6.5 at even money, the same on ESPN. Take the seven and pay the extra for it. At +6.5 the edge is still about five and a half points, so it is still a bet.
Last season, game by game
New England went 14-3 and 8-0 away from home. Its three losses were by 7, 7 and 4 points, so in 17 games it never lost by more than a touchdown.
These two met twice. New England won 23-20 in Buffalo on 5 October 2025, and Buffalo won 35-31 in New England on 14 December. Two games decided by three and four points. Two games is not a rate, and I will not treat it as one.
What this season says, and what it cannot
Buffalo is 3-0. It won 36-31 at Houston, beat Detroit 41-31 and beat the Chargers 24-16, a 101-78 aggregate.
New England is 1-2. It lost 13-10 at Seattle, beat Pittsburgh 20-3, then lost 35-6 at Jacksonville on 27 September. That is the largest loss by either team since the start of 2025, and it arrived in the same week the line reached seven.
Three games each is too few to move a 17-game rate by six points. The market has moved as if it can. That disagreement is the whole bet, and I would rather say so plainly than dress it up.
The total
Forty-eight and a half, the median of 11 books, down from 49.5 and 50.5 on 16 September. Seven books hang 48.5, three hang 49 and BetRivers 48.
My method for the total adds each team’s expected points, taken as the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed a game in 2025. New England comes out at 25.2 and Buffalo at 23.6, a total of 48.7. That is 0.2 from the market. Buffalo’s games went over 48.5 in 8 of 17 last season and New England’s in 6 of 17. No bet on the total.
The moneyline
The median moneylines are Buffalo -312 and New England +250. With the bookmaker margin removed, that is a 72.6 percent chance for Buffalo.
My method estimates a margin, and the spread is where a margin is tested. So the moneyline carries the same disagreement and I leave it alone.
Where the data runs out
Nucleus holds nothing before the 2025 season, so the two meetings above are the whole head-to-head record I have. The price above rests on the 17-game rates alone and puts no weight on those two meetings.
This page also prices no injury news. Kickoff is 1:00 pm Eastern on Sunday 4 October, and a missing starting quarterback on either side would move this line more than anything here, so read the injury report before you bet.
What would change the call
The edge survives a lot of movement. At Buffalo -3 it is still just over two points and still a bet. A move to -2.5 or shorter takes it below the threshold and makes this a pass.
Pick: Patriots +7, or +6.5 where seven is gone.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
New England Patriots: Out: Brenden Schooler (S, back), Harold Landry III (LB, undisclosed); questionable: Eli Raridon (TE, thigh), Reggie Gilliam (FB, knee), Christian Gonzalez (CB, shoulder), Christian Barmore (DT, shoulder), Morgan Moses (OT, foot), Christian Elliss (LB, chest), Dre’Mont Jones (DE, shoulder), Craig Woodson (S, shoulder); on injured reserve: Greg Van Roten (G, thigh), A.J. Brown (WR, ankle – sprain), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, knee), Dell Pettus (S, ankle), Mike Onwenu (G, ankle – fracture), Bryce Baringer (P, undisclosed), Khalil Jacobs (LB, undisclosed), Marcus Bryant (OT, ankle), Myles Montgomery (RB, undisclosed), Jeremiah Webb (WR, arm), Julian Hill (TE, knee).
Buffalo Bills: Out: Tyrell Shavers (WR, knee – acl – surgery), Dorian Strong (CB, neck); doubtful: T.J. Sanders (DT); questionable: Keon Coleman (WR, ankle), Deone Walker (DT, quadriceps), Damar Hamlin (S, ribs), DJ Moore (WR, shoulder), Joe Andreessen (LB, knee), Christian Benford (CB, toe); on injured reserve: Jordan Hancock (CB, hamstring), Zane Durant (DT, undisclosed).