NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyPIT-2.5U 38.5-148CLE+2.5O 38.5+124
NFL · Thursday 1 October
Steelers at Browns Final Score: Browns Win 27-24
Final: Cleveland Browns 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Thursday 1 October at Huntington Bank Field.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Pittsburgh is laying 3 in Cleveland. I am still taking the Steelers.” Steelers -3 lost: Pittsburgh lost by 3.
What decided it
Cleveland won the second quarter by 18. Cleveland turned the ball over 2 times to Pittsburgh’s 2, and gained 372 yards to 361.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 27 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is PIT -2.5, with a total of 38.5. Pittsburgh did not cover as the favourite. The 51 points went over the total.
What comes next
Pittsburgh plays next against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Cleveland plays next at the New York Jets on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Steelers at Browns Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Pittsburgh is laying 3 in Cleveland. I am still taking the Steelers.
My number is plain arithmetic. I take each team’s points differential per game from last season, subtract one from the other, and set the result against the spread. When the spread sits two points or more away from my number, it is a bet. Inside two points, I pass.
Pick: Steelers -3
Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and outscored its opponents by 10 points over 17 games. Cleveland went 5-12 and was outscored by 100. Per game, that is Pittsburgh at plus 0.6 and Cleveland at minus 5.9. The gap is about six and a half points, and the market is asking for three.
Three and a half points of daylight still clears my bar. Cleveland scored 16.4 points a game last season, seven fewer than Pittsburgh’s 23.4, and a team that scores that little has to win on defence. The Browns allowed 22.3 a game, which is not the defence of a team that wins that way.
The doubt, and why I overrule it
Here is the part that argues against me. Cleveland went 3-6 at home last season, but the points came out dead level: 18.1 scored and 18.1 allowed. Pittsburgh on the road scored 23.2 and allowed 24.2. On that cut, Cleveland is a point better.
The last meeting went Cleveland’s way too, 13-6 in Cleveland on 28 December. Pittsburgh won the one in Pittsburgh 23-9 in October. That is every meeting since 2025.
I overrule it. A home-and-road split cuts 17 games into piles of eight and nine, and a pile of eight is a thin thing to argue against a full season. The full season says six and a half.
This season so far
Both teams are 2-1, and neither has looked like much. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13, lost 20-3 at New England and beat Cincinnati 30-27 on Sunday. Cleveland lost 34-10 at Jacksonville, then won 23-19 at Tampa Bay and 21-18 at home to Carolina.
Three games in, Pittsburgh is minus 7 on points and Cleveland minus 17. Cleveland’s two wins came by four points and three. Pittsburgh’s only road game was the 20-3 loss, and that is the result I like least on this page. Three games do not move my number.
Where the price has gone
Cleveland was first seen at +3 on 16 September. Lines as short as +2 and +1.5 showed up on 23 and 24 September, and on Monday the median was +2.5. It has moved back to 3. Read on the morning of the game across 11 US sportsbooks, eight hang Pittsburgh -3 and three hang -2.5.
The half point costs real money now. At -3 the Pittsburgh side runs from -105 to +104. DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics still deal -2.5, but at -120, and DraftKings on ESPN showed the same -2.5 at -120. A Pittsburgh win by exactly three is a push at 3 and a win at 2.5. I take the 3 at close to even money.
Every price on this page is the median of the books in that read, taken at 07:10 UTC on 1 October 2026. Kickoff is Thursday 1 October at 8:15 PM ET, four days after both teams played on Sunday.
Worst price I would take: Steelers -4. At -4.5, pass. At -4.5 the gap to my number drops under two points, and that is where the bet stops.
The total
Thirty-eight and a half, and no bet. Ten books hang 38.5 and one hangs 38. On Monday it was 38.
The two histories point in opposite directions. Pittsburgh’s games went over 38.5 in 12 of 17 last season, and Cleveland’s in 7. Totals as high as 41.5 were first seen on 16 September, so the market has already come down a long way. I have nothing to sell on either side of it.
This season does not settle it. Pittsburgh’s three games have totalled 33, 23 and 57 points, and Cleveland’s 44, 42 and 39. Four of those six went over 38.5 and two finished at 33 and 23. That is a lean from three games each, set against a full season that splits, and a lean is not a bet. I pass.
What the moneyline says
The median moneylines are Pittsburgh -149 and Cleveland +125. With the bookmaker margin taken out, that is a 57.4 percent chance for Pittsburgh to win outright.
I would still rather lay the points than pay -149. Seven of Pittsburgh’s ten wins last season came by four points or more, and one more came by exactly three, which is a push at -3. The price on the spread is much better.
Last season, game by game
Cleveland lost six games last season by 14 points or more. Pittsburgh played ten of its 17 inside seven points either way, so it is not a team that runs away from people. It does not need to be. It needs to win by three.
Steelers -3. Good up to -4.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Out: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, back), Rico Dowdle (RB, toe), Max Hurleman (RB, undisclosed), Donte Kent (CB, undisclosed); questionable: Brandin Echols (CB, concussion), Jalen Ramsey (CB, wrist – fracture); on injured reserve: Gennings Dunker (G, knee), DeShon Elliott (S, undisclosed), Jack Driscoll (OT, undisclosed), Cole Burgess (WR, undisclosed), Logan Lee (DT, undisclosed), Daequan Hardy (CB, undisclosed).
Cleveland Browns: Out: Teven Jenkins (G, back), Elgton Jenkins (C, concussion), Tylan Wallace (WR, knee), Nathaniel Watson (LB, knee), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, neck), Joe Royer (TE, personal); on injured reserve: Dylan Sampson (RB, knee), Dillon Gabriel (QB, back), Kalia Davis (DT, quadriceps), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, biceps), Elijah Chatman (DT, quadriceps), Alex Wright (DE, achilles – surgery), Damarri Mathis (CB, undisclosed).