NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyIND-4.5U 46.5-205WSH+4.5O 46.5+170
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Colts at Commanders Final Score: Colts Win 30-13
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13, Sunday 4 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Give me the Colts at -3.5, one unit, nothing on the total.” Colts -3.5 won: Indianapolis won by 17.
What decided it
Indianapolis won the second quarter by 10. Indianapolis turned the ball over 2 times to Washington’s 1, and gained 257 yards to 317.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 |
| Washington Commanders | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is IND -4.5, with a total of 46.5. Indianapolis covered as the favourite. The 43 points went under the total.
What comes next
Indianapolis plays next at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Washington plays next against the New York Giants on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Colts at Commanders prediction: Take Colts -3.5”.
No home field in London, and last season says Indianapolis by nine. Give me the Colts at -3.5.
This one is played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday 4 October, kickoff 9:30 AM ET. Washington is the designated home team and nothing more, so neither side gets the points I would normally hand a home crowd.
How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side and none here. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet, and every price is the median of the US books, read 1 October.
Colts -3.5 (-112)
Indianapolis finished 8-9 last season and outscored its opponents by 54 points. Washington finished 5-12 and was outscored by 95. Put per game, that is the Colts at plus three and the Commanders at minus five and a half.
What does that make the game on a neutral field? Colts by about nine. The market says three and a half. That is a gap of more than five points, well past the three I need, and it is the whole case for the bet.
Worst price to bet: Colts -5.5 (-110). At -6 the gap drops under three and I pass.
Concede the collapse
Here is how this goes wrong. Indianapolis started last season 8-2 and then lost its last seven games, by 61 points in total. A team that finished like that is not obviously the team the full-season number describes.
Look along the Colts row and the break is plain: tall bars early, grey from late November on. Personally, I think the seventeen games still say more than the last seven, and because Washington never won two games in a row all season. The Colts’ bad run looks like a good team losing close games, with four of the seven by six points or fewer. The Commanders lost by 21 or more five times. Give me the Colts.
This season
Both teams are 1-2, and the margins are nearly identical. Indianapolis lost 41-23 at home to Baltimore and 33-30 at Kansas City, then beat Houston 19-17 at home on Sunday. Washington lost 24-22 at Philadelphia and 37-20 at Dallas, then beat Seattle 33-31 at home.
Three games apiece, minus 19 for the Colts and minus 17 for the Commanders. That is too small a sample to move my number, and it is the part of the evidence that argues for Washington, so it belongs on the page.
Where the price has gone
On 16 September, the first day it was quoted, it appeared both ways: Washington -1.5 and Washington +1.5. By 23 September it had reached Colts -4.5. It came back to -3 on Monday, across a weekend in which both teams won, and it has moved toward the Colts again since. Read on 1 October, seven of 11 books hang -3.5 and four hang -4; none is left at -3. DraftKings is -3.5 at -112, the same on ESPN, and that is the reference line.
The half point costs something. A Colts win by exactly three was a push at -3 and is a loss at -3.5. The gap to my number is still more than five points, so the bet stands at -3.5, and at -4 if that is all you can find.
The total
Forty-seven and a half, the median of 11 books, with Bovada and MyBookie at 48. On Monday it was 47. My number from last season’s rates is 49.5, two points over.
That is short of the three I need. Both teams went over 47.5 in nine of their 17 games last season, and this season’s Colts games have finished on 64, 63 and 36 points, which tells me nothing. No bet on the total. I would rather say so than invent a lean.
The moneyline
The median prices are Colts -196 and Commanders +165, which makes Indianapolis 63.7 percent to win once the margin comes out. My number says more than that, but at -196 I would rather lay the three and a half and keep the price near even money.
Give me the Colts at -3.5, one unit, nothing on the total.
This call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and this week’s prices, read 1 October. The rest of the Week 4 card is on our NFL predictions page.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Indianapolis Colts: Questionable: Mo Alie-Cox (TE, illness), Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB, knee), Ashton Dulin (WR, ankle), Sean McKeon (TE, undisclosed); on injured reserve: Alec Pierce (WR, heel), Micheal Clemons (DE, toe), Carson Towt (TE, undisclosed), D.J. Montgomery (WR, abdomen), Will Mallory (TE, thumb), Cameron Mitchell (CB, undisclosed).
Washington Commanders: Out: Nick Cross (S, illness), Sam Cosmi (G, concussion), Marvin Jones Jr. (LB, undisclosed), Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE, quadriceps); questionable: Frankie Luvu (LB, groin – strain), Ben Sinnott (TE, ribs), Chig Okonkwo (TE, hamstring), Lucas Patrick (G, foot), Charles Omenihu (DE, ankle), Amik Robertson (CB, knee), Nick Allegretti (G, hip), Javon Kinlaw (DT, shoulder), Jayden Daniels (QB, elbow – dislocated), Rachaad White (RB, shoulder), Percy Butler (S, concussion); on injured reserve: Leo Chenal (LB, neck – surgery), Jordan Magee (LB, hamstring), Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, pectoral – surgery), Laremy Tunsil (OT, triceps – surgery), Trey Amos (CB, ankle – sprain), Jeremy McNichols (RB, quadriceps).