Chargers at Seahawks Final Score: Seahawks Win 30-23

Final: Seattle Seahawks 30, Los Angeles Chargers 23, Sunday 4 October at Lumen Field.

Our call pushed. Before the game this page said: “Give me the Seahawks at -7, one unit, nothing on the total.” Seahawks -7 pushed: Seattle won by 7.

What decided it

Seattle won the second quarter by 10. Seattle turned the ball over 1 time to Los Angeles’s 4, and gained 286 yards to 301.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is SEA -7, with a total of 43.5. Seattle pushed as the favourite. The 53 points went over the total.

What comes next

Los Angeles plays next against the Denver Broncos on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Seattle plays next against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Chargers at Seahawks prediction: Take Seahawks -7”.

Seattle went 14-3 last season and is laying a touchdown at home to an 0-3 team. Give me the Seahawks, and no bet on the total.

Los Angeles visits Seattle on Sunday 4 October, kickoff 4:25 PM ET. The line has already moved a long way toward Seattle, and it still has not moved far enough.

How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet, and every price is the median of the US books, read 1 October.

Seahawks -7 (-115)

Seattle outscored its opponents by 191 points last season, 11.2 a game. The Chargers went 11-6 and were plus 28, which is 1.6 a game. Both were winning teams. Only one of them was winning by double digits a game.

So what is the gap at home? On last season’s rates, Seattle by nine and a half before home field and by eleven and a half with it. The market has Seattle by seven. That is four and a half points short of my number, and it is the bet.

Worst price to bet: Seahawks -8.5 (-110). At -9 I pass.

Where the price has gone

When this game was first quoted on 16 September, Seattle was a three-point favourite. By 23 September it was -6.5 and -7, after a Week 2 in which the Chargers lost 26-14 at home to Las Vegas and Seattle won 31-7 in Arizona. On Monday the books split between -7 and -6.5. The -6.5 has gone since. Read on 1 October, 10 of 11 books hang -7, at prices from -112 to -116, and MyBookie has -7.5 at even money. DraftKings is -7 at -115, the same on ESPN, and that is the reference line.

A seven-point Seattle win is a push at -7 and a loss at -7.5, so take the seven and pay the -115 for it. The gap to my number is still four and a half points at -7.

Concede it properly

The Chargers are not a bad team. They went 11-6 last season, 5-3 on the road, and won six of their eight one-score games. They allowed 20.0 a game, which is a defence that keeps games close, and a touchdown is a lot to lay against a team that does that.

Look along the Seattle row, though. Three losses all last season, by four, three and two points. The wins include 44-13, 38-14, 44-22 and 37-9. Seattle scored 30.6 a game at home and allowed 20.2. Personally, I think the Chargers’ defence keeps this closer than Seattle’s best days, and Seattle still covers seven. Give me the Seahawks.

This season

Los Angeles is 0-3: beaten 26-14 at home by Arizona, 26-14 at home by Las Vegas, and 24-16 at Buffalo on Sunday. That is 44 points in three games, and minus 32 on the year.

Seattle is 2-1. It beat New England 13-10 at home, won 31-7 at Arizona, and lost 33-31 at Washington on Sunday. Plus 25, and the only loss was by two points.

The total

Forty-two and a half, the median of 11 books, with four books at 43 and FanDuel at 43.5. On Monday it was 43.5. My number is 43.6, about a point over the market and well inside my three-point bar.

The Chargers’ games went over 42.5 in eight of 17 last season, Seattle’s in 10. All three Chargers games this season have finished on exactly 40 points. Seattle’s have finished on 23, 38 and 64. No bet on the total. A total within about a point of my number is a total the market has close to right.

The moneyline

The median prices are Seattle -345 and Los Angeles +275, which makes the Seahawks 74.4 percent to win once the margin comes out. That is too expensive to be interesting, and the spread is where the gap between my number and the market lives.

Give me the Seahawks at -7, one unit, nothing on the total.

This call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and this week’s prices, read 1 October. The rest of the Week 4 card is on our NFL predictions page.

Injury report

From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.

Los Angeles Chargers: Out: Isaiah World (OT, knee); doubtful: Charlie Kolar (TE, forearm – surgery); questionable: Derwin James Jr. (S, hamstring), Keaton Mitchell (RB, ankle), Trey Lance (QB, groin), Justin Eboigbe (DT, eye), Ladd McConkey (WR, foot), Brenen Thompson (WR, quadriceps), Kayode Awosika (G, lower leg), Elijah Molden (CB, hamstring), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, hamstring), Donte Jackson (CB, concussion); on injured reserve: Trey Pipkins III (OT, knee), David Njoku (TE, lower leg), KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, hamstring), Denzel Perryman (LB, undisclosed), Scott Matlock (FB, undisclosed), Branson Taylor (G, undisclosed), Tyler Biadasz (C, knee).

Seattle Seahawks: Out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, knee – acl – surgery), Terrion Arnold (CB, personal); questionable: Ty Okada (S, hamstring), Julian Love (S, calf), Grey Zabel (G, groin), Jarran Reed (DT, foot), George Holani (RB, ribs), Jadarian Price (RB, chest), Brandon Pili (DT, concussion); on injured reserve: Anthony Bradford (G, knee), Irv Charles (WR, undisclosed), Mason Richman (G, leg), Bud Clark (S, ankle – fracture), Jake Bobo (WR, knee), Robbie Ouzts (FB, neck).