NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyNE+3U 46+130JAX-3O 46-154
NFL · Sunday 27 September
Patriots at Jaguars Final Score: Jaguars Win 35-6
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 35, New England Patriots 6, Sunday 27 September at EverBank Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Give me New England and the three.” Patriots +3 lost: New England lost by 29.
What decided it
Jacksonville won the third quarter by 14. Jacksonville turned the ball over 1 time to New England’s 3, and gained 315 yards to 317.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is JAX -3, with a total of 46.5. Jacksonville covered as the favourite. The 41 points went under the total.
What comes next
New England plays next at the Buffalo Bills on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. Jacksonville plays next at the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Patriots at Jaguars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Jacksonville is laying 3 at home against a team that won 14 games last season. Give me New England and the points.
New England +3 (-115)
Three points is about what the market charges for home field and nothing else. It is saying these are the same team on a neutral field.
They are not the same team, and the gap runs the visitor’s way. New England went 14-3 last season with a points differential of +170. Jacksonville went 13-4 at +138. Both excellent, both close, and the 32-point difference across a full season is not nothing.
Worst price to bet: New England +2 (-110). At +1.5 this is a pass.
The number has moved my way
The downloads on 16 September had Jacksonville anywhere from -1.5 to -3. On Monday the median was -2.5; on 24 September it is -3, the median of 11 books, nine of them at 3 and two at 2.5. That half point lands on three, the most common margin in the sport, so a three-point New England loss now pushes the bet instead of losing it. The price for it is a little more juice, -115 at the median book instead of -110, and I will pay that for the key number.
Both of them can score
New England scored 28.8 a game last season and allowed 18.8. Jacksonville scored 27.9 and allowed 19.8. Look along both rows of that chart. New England lost three games last season and none of them by more than seven. Jacksonville lost four, and one of those was by 28.
Two defences this good usually make for a tighter game than the scoring rates suggest, which is another reason I want points rather than a side to win outright.
Concede the obvious
Jacksonville at home is a hard place to take points. They went 7-2 in front of their own crowd last season. Against that, New England went 8-0 on the road. If you think home field is worth more than three points against a 14-win team, you should pass rather than take the other side.
Both are 1-1 this season, which tells us almost nothing and is priced into a spread this short already.
The total
Forty-five, the median of 11 books, up from 44.5 on Monday.
Two teams that both scored comfortably and both defended well. Each of them went over 45 in ten of 17 games last season, and the dots cluster either side of the number. I cannot separate them. No bet on the total, and I would rather say that than invent a lean.
Injury report
From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.
New England Patriots: Out: Harold Landry III (LB, undisclosed), Brenden Schooler (S, nfi-r for week 3 at jacksonville); on injured reserve: Bryce Baringer (P, undisclosed), A.J. Brown (WR, ankle), Khalil Jacobs (LB, undisclosed), Mike Onwenu (G, ankle), Dell Pettus (S, ankle), Jeremiah Webb (WR, arm); questionable: Reggie Gilliam (FB, knee), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, knee), Eli Raridon (TE, thigh), Craig Woodson (S, shoulder).
Jacksonville Jaguars: On injured reserve: Zach Durfee (DE, upper body), Patrick Mekari (G, back); questionable: DaVon Hamilton (DT, back).
The moneyline
About 58 percent for Jacksonville once the margin comes out. That is about right, which is why the spread is the bet and the moneyline is not.
Give me New England and the three.
These calls are made from last season’s full 17-game rates and this week’s prices, read 24 September.