NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyARI-2.5U 44.5-135NYG+2.5O 44.5+114
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Cardinals at Giants Final Score: Giants Win 36-24
Final: New York Giants 36, Arizona Cardinals 24, Sunday 4 October at MetLife Stadium.
Both our calls won. Before the game this page said: “Give me the Giants +2.5 and the over 44.5, one unit each.” Giants +2.5 won: New York won by 12. The over 44.5 won: the teams scored 60.
What decided it
New York won the second quarter by 13. New York turned the ball over 3 times to Arizona’s 3, and gained 319 yards to 270.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 36 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is ARI -2.5, with a total of 43.5. Arizona did not cover as the favourite. The 60 points went over the total.
What comes next
Arizona plays next against the Detroit Lions on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. New York plays next at the Washington Commanders on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Cardinals at Giants Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
New York is getting 2.5 at home against a team that won three games last season. Give me the Giants, and the over 44.5 alongside.
Arizona visits New York on Sunday 4 October, kickoff 1:00 PM ET. Last week we laid the points with the Giants against Tennessee and they won 12-7, which paid. We took the over in the same game, and 19 points lost it. Both go in the record.
How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet, and every price is the median of the US books, read 1 October.
Giants +2.5 (-110)
Arizona went 3-14 last season and was outscored by 133 points. New York went 4-13 and was outscored by 58. One win apart in the standings, and 75 points apart in what actually happened on the field.
So who should be favoured? On those rates, New York by four and a half before home field, and by six and a half with it. The market has the Giants getting two and a half. That is a gap of almost nine points.
Worst price to bet: Giants -3 (-110). At -3.5 I pass, because the gap drops under three and the half point past a field goal is the one that costs most.
A line that went the wrong way
When this game was first quoted on 16 September, New York was favoured by seven, and by six and a half at some books. By 23 September it had come down as far as 1.5, and on Monday the median was Giants +1. It has kept going. Today 10 of 11 books hang Giants +2.5, at prices from -102 to -110, and BetUS has +2. DraftKings hangs +2.5 at -108, the same on ESPN, and that is the reference line.
Nine and a half points of movement, and across it the Giants went 1-1 while Arizona lost both its games. I cannot tell you why the market moved and I will not guess. I can tell you it moved past my number by a long way. Take the points.
Concede it properly
The Giants lost seven one-score games last season and won one. A team that finishes 1-7 in close games gets no benefit of the doubt in a game priced at a point, and I understand the market being nervous about it.
Against that, Arizona lost six games by 14 points or more last season, and New York lost three. The Cardinals lost 2-8 in one-score games themselves and allowed 28.3 a game on the road last season. The Giants allowed 22.5 at home. Personally, I think the close-game record is the whole case against New York, and it is not worth seven points. Give me the Giants.
This season
New York is 2-1: a 28-20 home win over Dallas, a 28-6 loss at the Rams, then the 12-7 home win over Tennessee. Arizona is 1-2: a 26-14 win at the Chargers, a 31-7 home loss to Seattle, and a 36-30 loss at San Francisco on Sunday.
Three games each, and they point the same way as last season’s seventeen. The Giants are minus 9 on the year and the Cardinals are minus 18.
Over 44.5 (-108)
Forty-four and a half, the median of 11 books, with FanDuel at 43.5 and Bovada at 44. It has not moved since Monday. Last season Arizona scored 20.9 and allowed 28.7 a game, New York scored 22.4 and allowed 25.8. Run those against each other and I land on 49, four and a half points over the number.
Arizona’s games went over 44.5 in 11 of 17 last season, New York’s in 10. Here is the concession, and it is a real one: the Giants’ last two games finished on 34 and 19 points, and our over in their last game lost. Two games do not outweigh last season’s thirty-four. Give me the over.
Worst price to bet: over 45.5 (-110). FanDuel has 43.5, at -118, and that is the better ticket.
The moneyline
Arizona is -141 and New York +116 at the median, which is 44.2 percent for the Giants once the margin comes out. My number has New York winning this game. At two and a half points, I would still rather have the points than the price.
Give me the Giants +2.5 and the over 44.5, one unit each.
Both calls come from last season’s 17-game rates and this week’s prices, read 1 October. The rest of the Week 4 card is on our NFL predictions page.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Arizona Cardinals: Out: Tip Reiman (TE, ankle); questionable: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, back), Mack Wilson Sr. (LB, thumb), Roy Lopez (DT, groin), Walter Nolen III (DT, shoulder), Hjalte Froholdt (C, knee), Josh Minkins (S, undisclosed), Xavier Weaver (WR, hamstring); on injured reserve: Will Johnson (CB, neck), Kitan Crawford (S, ankle), Kaleb Proctor (DT, knee – meniscus – surgery), Zachary Carter (DT, knee), James Conner (RB, foot), Trey Benson (RB, knee), Chase Bisontis (G, knee – mcl – surgery), Joey Blount (S, neck – stinger), Jameson Geers (TE, undisclosed).
New York Giants: Questionable: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, knee), Andrew Thomas (OT, groin), Deonte Banks (CB, calf), Tyler Nubin (S, calf), DJ James (CB, undisclosed); on injured reserve: Jaxson Dart (QB, knee – meniscus – surgery), Brian Burns (LB, knee – acl – surgery), Paulson Adebo (CB, knee), Roy Robertson-Harris (DT, achilles – surgery), Korie Black (CB, undisclosed), Calvin Austin III (WR, knee), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, knee), Rico Payton (CB, undisclosed), Gunner Olszewski (WR, achilles – surgery), Thaddeus Dixon (CB, achilles).