NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyANA-1.5U 6.5-125CGY+1.5O 6.5+105
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Ducks at Flames Final Score: Ducks Win 4-2
Final: Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2, Saturday 10 October at Scotiabank Saddledome.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Flames at +105.” The Flames moneyline lost: Calgary lost 4-2.
What decided it
Anaheim won the third period by 2. Anaheim had 28 shots to Calgary’s 29, and scored 1 power-play goal to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Calgary Flames | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Anaheim Ducks -122, Calgary Flames +102, with a total of 6.5. Anaheim, the favourite, won. The 6 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Anaheim plays next against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday 29 October. Calgary plays next at the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Ducks at Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Flames at +105. Our number has Calgary as the favourite, and the market has them as the underdog.
The Anaheim Ducks are -125 and the Calgary Flames +105 at DraftKings, which is a 46.8% chance for Calgary once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Flames 54.9%. The gap is 8.1 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so the Flames are a bet.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Flames at +101 or longer or the Ducks at +150 or longer. The Flames opened at +114 and have come in to +105. That is still longer than +101, so the full number agrees with the first page: the Flames, at the price that page named.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Flames went 23-13-5 at home, meaning 23 wins, 13 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 54.9% for Calgary, which leaves 45.1% for Anaheim.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Ducks at 53.2% and the Flames at 46.8%.
The two numbers pick different favourites. Ours is built from last season’s home and road rates only, and the market prices things it does not see. It is a new season, rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. The evidence is 41 home games for the Flames and 41 road games for the Ducks.
The Flames at home, the Ducks on the road
The Flames were two teams last season. At home they scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.61. On the road they went 11-26-4, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. The method takes only the home half, and that half is the whole case for Calgary.
The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 goals a game and allowed 3.54. At home they went 24-13-4, five more wins than away.
Across the full season the Flames finished 34-39-9 with 77 points and were outscored by 47 goals. They played no playoff games. The Ducks finished 43-33-6 with 92 points. They were outscored by 15 goals and still won 43. Twenty-four of those wins came by one goal, where they went 24-6-6, and 23 of their 82 games went past regulation. In the playoffs they beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 and lost 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The teams met four times in 2025-26, and Anaheim won three. The Ducks won 4-3 in overtime in Calgary on 25 January, 3-2 in a shootout in Anaheim on 1 March, and 3-2 in overtime in Calgary on 26 March. The Flames won 5-3 in Anaheim on 4 April. Four games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Flames +105
Bet the Flames on the moneyline at +105. The gap is 8.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Ducks -135 and Flames +114, and it has moved toward Calgary since. Read on 9 October 2026 at 15:17 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Anaheim was -125 and Calgary +105.
What changes it
More of the same move. The bet holds while the Flames stay an underdog and a little past it: against Anaheim at -125, Calgary still clears at -123. At -110 each way the gap would be 4.9 points and a pass. At +101 or longer the Flames are a bet whatever Anaheim is priced at. The Ducks would need +150 or longer, which is not where this line is.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +102 and under -122. The Flames’ games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82 and the Ducks’ in 49 of 82. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.
The two over rates, 35.4% and 59.8%, average 47.6%. The over at +102 is priced at 47.4% with the margin removed. The gap is 0.2 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Ducks -1.5 at +190 and the Flames +1.5 at -230. Anaheim won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games. Calgary lost by two or more in 33 of 82. Averaged, the Ducks -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 33.1% priced. The gap is 1.4 points. Pass on the puck line. The bet is the moneyline at +105.
Ducks at Flames, Saturday 10 October, 10:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 15:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.