NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyEDM-1.5U 6.5-135ANA+1.5O 6.5+114
NHL · Wednesday 7 October
Oilers at Ducks Final Score: Oilers Win 5-2
Final: Edmonton Oilers 5, Anaheim Ducks 2, Wednesday 7 October at Honda Center.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Ducks at +114.” The Ducks moneyline lost: Anaheim lost 5-2.
What decided it
Edmonton won the second period by 5. Edmonton had 19 shots to Anaheim’s 31, and scored 1 power-play goal to 2.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Edmonton Oilers -135, Anaheim Ducks +114, with a total of 6.5. Edmonton, the favourite, won. The 7 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Edmonton plays next against the Calgary Flames on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Anaheim plays next against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Oilers at Ducks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Ducks at +114. The bet holds down to -104, and stops there.
The Anaheim Ducks are +114 and the Edmonton Oilers -135 at DraftKings, which is a 44.9% chance for the Ducks once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Ducks 56.1%. The gap is 11.2 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so the Ducks are a bet.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Ducks at -104 or better or the Oilers at +158 or better. The posted price makes Anaheim the underdog at home, well inside the Ducks’ half of that call, so the call is now the Ducks.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Ducks went 24-13-4 at home, meaning 24 wins, 13 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 56.1% for the Ducks, which leaves 43.9% for the Oilers.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At +114 and -135 the two prices add to 104.2%. Removed, it leaves the Ducks at 44.9% and the Oilers at 55.1%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Ducks and 41 road games for the Oilers. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. That is the main risk in this bet, because the market prices Edmonton as the better team by a wide margin.
The Ducks at home, the Oilers on the road
The Ducks at home scored 3.54 goals a game and allowed 3.49. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15. Both sides outscored their opponents in these games, the Ducks by 0.05 a game and the Oilers by 0.24.
The goals favour Edmonton more than the wins do. Anaheim won 24 of 41 at home with a goal margin close to zero, and the method counts only the wins. The Oilers won only 19 of 41 on the road while outscoring their opponents there.
Across the full season the Ducks finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and were outscored by 15 goals, 0.18 a game. They went 24-6-6 in one-goal games. They beat the Oilers 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points and outscored opponents by 13 goals, 0.16 a game. Their one playoff series was that 4-2 loss to Anaheim.
The teams met three times in the 2025-26 regular season and Edmonton won two, both at home: 7-4 on 26 January and 4-2 on 28 March. Anaheim won 6-5 at home on 25 February. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Ducks at +114
Bet the Ducks on the moneyline at +114. The gap is 11.2 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Ducks +105 and Oilers -125, which put Anaheim at 46.8% and the gap at 9.3 points. Since then the Ducks have drifted to +114 and the Oilers shortened to -135, so the gap has widened. Read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Ducks were +114 and the Oilers -135.
What changes it
A shorter price on the Ducks. The bet holds at -104 or longer, whatever Edmonton is priced at. Shorter than that, pass. The Oilers would need +158 or longer, a long way from -135.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 7 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -142 and under +120. The Ducks’ games went over 6.5 in 49 of 82 and the Oilers’ in 48 of 82. The Ducks’ home games averaged 7.03 goals, the Oilers’ road games 6.54.
The two over rates, 59.8% and 58.5%, average 59.1%. The over at -142 is priced at 56.3% with the margin removed, 2.8 points below our rate. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Oilers -1.5 at +180 and the Ducks +1.5 at -218. The Oilers won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. The Ducks lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Edmonton -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 34.3% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Oilers at Ducks, Wednesday 7 October, 10:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.