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The Canadiens won 24 of 41 on the road last season. Take them at -105.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a small favourite at -115, with the Montreal Canadiens at -105 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, that prices the Canadiens to win 48.9% of the time. Our number is 57.3%. The gap is 8.4 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at home, meaning 18 wins, 15 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is 18 wins in 41 games, a 43.9% home win rate. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 42.7% for the Maple Leafs, which leaves 57.3% for the Canadiens.
The margin is the few points a book adds to both prices, so that the two sides add up to more than 100%. Removed from -115 and -105, it leaves the Maple Leafs at 51.1% and the Canadiens at 48.9%.
A new season starts here. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed in either one. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Maple Leafs and 41 road games for the Canadiens.
The Maple Leafs at home, the Canadiens on the road
The Canadiens on the road scored 3.56 goals a game and allowed 3.15. The Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 and allowed 3.54. The visitor was the better team on both counts.
Over the full season the Canadiens finished 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 0.33 goals a game. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, outscored by 0.56 a game. The Canadiens won playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Buffalo Sabres, both 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Maple Leafs did not reach the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs’ 14 losses after regulation matter to this method, because each one counts as a loss. Eight of them came at home. In games decided by one goal, the Maple Leafs went 14-4-14.
The teams met four times in 2025-26 and the Canadiens won three. The Maple Leafs won the first, 5-2 at home on 8 October. The Canadiens won 5-2 at home on 23 November, 2-1 in a shootout at Toronto on 7 December, and 3-1 at home on 10 March.
The price
The Maple Leafs opened at -115 and the Canadiens at -105, and neither had moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
A near coin-flip price against a 57.3% figure is where the gap comes from. The Canadiens won 58.5% of their road games, the same rate as at home.
Pick: Canadiens moneyline
Montreal Canadiens -105. Our number gives the Canadiens 57.3%, the market 48.9%, a gap of 8.4 points against a 5-point threshold.
The sample is 82 games, 41 for each team, all from last season.
What changes it
A move toward the Canadiens. With the book’s margin held at today’s size, the Canadiens at -121 still leave a 5.0-point gap and the bet stands. At -122 the gap is 4.8, and it is a pass.
The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 29 September, and a summer of changes could move either team’s true rate a long way from last season’s. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82 and the Canadiens’ in 44 of 82. The Maple Leafs’ home games averaged 6.83 goals, and the Canadiens’ road games 6.71.
Averaging the two over rates, 56.1% and 53.7%, gives 54.9%. The over at +100 is priced at 47.8% with the margin removed. That is 7.1 points toward the over. Lean over 6.5, and only a lean: the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
The Maple Leafs are -1.5 at +200 on the puck line and the Canadiens +1.5 at -245. The Maple Leafs won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games. The Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Maple Leafs -1.5 lands 22.0% of the time against 31.9% priced. Lean Canadiens +1.5, at a price of -245 that leaves little to collect.
Canadiens at Maple Leafs, Tuesday 29 September, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
