NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyOTT-1.5U 5.5-110DET+1.5O 5.5-110
NHL · Tuesday 6 October
Senators at Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has the Senators and the Red Wings level at 50.0%, and so does the market. No bet.
The Detroit Red Wings and the Ottawa Senators are both -110 at DraftKings, which is 50.0% each once the margin is removed. Our number is also 50.0% each. The gap is 0.0 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass. When this page first went up, no line had been posted, and it named a price on either side that would make a bet. The posted price is nowhere near it.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home, meaning 21 wins, 16 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Senators went 21-15-5 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 50.0% for the Red Wings, which leaves 50.0% for the Senators.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -110, each side is priced at 52.4% (110 divided by 210). Removed from both, it leaves 50.0% each.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Red Wings and 41 road games for the Senators. No game from the new season is in these figures.
The Red Wings at home, the Senators on the road
The Red Wings at home scored 3.10 goals a game and allowed 3.34, outscored by 0.24 a game. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37, ahead by 0.02. Neither half was far from even.
The two records the method uses are almost mirror images. The Red Wings won 21 of 41 at home. The Senators won 21 of 41 on the road. That is why our number lands on 50.0% and not a point either way.
The Senators were the better team over the full season. They finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 0.39 goals a game, 3.39 to 3.00. They were swept 4-0 by the Carolina Hurricanes in their one playoff series. The Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 0.21 a game, 2.94 to 3.15. They did not reach the playoffs.
Close games were common for both. The Red Wings played 33 one-goal games and went 18-5-10 in them. The Senators played 37 and went 16-10-11.
The teams met four times in 2025-26, and the Red Wings won three. The Red Wings won 5-3 at Ottawa on 5 January, 4-3 in overtime at home on 18 January and 2-1 in overtime at Ottawa on 26 February. The Senators won 3-2 at Detroit on 24 March. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.0 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Red Wings opened at -115 and the Senators at -105, which was 51.1% for the Red Wings with the margin removed, a gap of 1.1 points. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, both sides were -110.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. Our number needs a side priced at 45.0% or less with the margin removed. Either team becomes a bet at +123 or longer, whatever the other is priced at, because +123 is 44.8% before the margin comes off (100 divided by 223).
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Red Wings’ games went over 5.5 in 49 of 82 and the Senators’ in 45 of 82. The Red Wings’ home games averaged 6.44 goals, the Senators’ road games 6.76.
The two over rates, 59.8% and 54.9%, average 57.3%. The over at -135 is priced at 55.1% with the margin removed, 2.2 points away. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Senators -1.5 at +215 and the Red Wings +1.5 at -265. The Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. The Red Wings lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Senators -1.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 30.4% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Senators at Red Wings, Tuesday 6 October, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.