NHL
NHL · Thursday 29 October
Senators vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Kings. With Linus Ullmark out, our number has Los Angeles at 52.7% against the price’s 50.0%, a gap of 2.7 points, short of the 5 we bet at.
The Ottawa Senators and the Los Angeles Kings are both -110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.0% for each side. Our number leans to the Kings by 2.7 points. That is too small to bet.
How 52.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 22 October 2026, 21:03 UTC, return date 7 November 2026; read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Ullmark appeared in 49 of Ottawa’s 82 games in 2025-26, and in 25 of its 41 road games. In the 16 road games he did not play, the Senators went 5-9-2, a road loss rate of 68.75%. Sixteen clears our NHL minimum of 10.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at home, a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. Average 36.6% with 68.75% and the Kings are 52.7%, the Senators 47.3%. That is 2.7 points better for Los Angeles than the price, under the threshold of 5.
The full road season gives the other answer. On all of Ottawa’s 2025-26 road games, the Kings come out at 42.7%, 7.3 points under the price, and the Senators would be the bet. Ullmark’s absence is what removes it. Without him the Senators were a much weaker road team, and the gap moves across to Los Angeles without reaching 5.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds up to more than 100%. At -110 and -110 they come to 104.8%. Taken out, each side is 50.0%.
Every input is from 2025-26: Los Angeles’s 41 home games and Ottawa’s 16 road games without Ullmark. This season is outside the method. The Kings are 3-6-2, 0-3-0 at home, and lost 2-1 at Chicago on Tuesday, 27 October; Darcy Kuemper has played seven of their games and Anton Forsberg five. The Senators are 8-5-0, 3-3-0 on the road, and lost 4-1 at Vegas the same night. Ullmark has played eight of their games, Samuel Ersson five and Jonas Johansson two. Ottawa’s other goalies in 2025-26 were Leevi Merilainen, James Reimer, Mads Sogaard and Hunter Shepard, so neither Ersson nor Johansson is in the re-run.
Los Angeles at home, Ottawa on the road
The Kings at home scored 2.63 a game and allowed 3.12, a deficit of 0.49. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37, a surplus of 0.02. Those are the halves the method reads, before Ullmark is taken out.
The halves the method leaves out run the other way for Los Angeles. On the road the Kings went 20-10-11, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.85 and allowing 2.90. Ottawa at home went 23-12-6, 56.1%, scoring 3.39 and allowing 2.63. Los Angeles was the better team away from its own arena last season, and that half is not in our number.
The season around it
Ottawa had the better 2025-26. The Senators went 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32, then lost 4-0 to Carolina in the playoffs. The Kings went 35-27-20 with 90 points, were outscored by 22, and were swept 4-0 by Colorado.
The Kings lived in close games. They went 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 of their games went past regulation, of which they won 13. Ottawa went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of 17 past 60 minutes. The Senators won by two goals or more 28 times in 82; the Kings did it 14 times.
Los Angeles won both meetings in 2025-26, each by one goal. The Kings won 1-0 in Ottawa on Saturday, 15 November 2025, a game in neither half of our number. They won 2-1 at home on Monday, 24 November 2025; that game is in the Kings’ home rate and in Ottawa’s full road season.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 2.7 points toward the Kings on Ottawa’s road games without Ullmark, against a threshold of 5. On the full road season it is 7.3 toward Ottawa, but with the Senators’ starting goalie out that number describes a team that will not take the ice on Thursday.
The line read Senators -110 and Kings -110 on 28 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -110 and -110, and has not moved.
What kills the bet
The no bet holds unless the price moves. At +110 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Ottawa is priced at; against Ottawa at -110, they become a bet at +109 or longer. They are -110.
For the Senators to become the bet, they would have to be +137 or longer whatever the Kings’ price, or +160 or longer against the Kings at -110. They are -110.
Ullmark’s return would also change the call, because the method would go back to the full road season. His listed return date is 7 November. Besides Ullmark, ESPN’s list has Thomas Chabot out with an upper-body injury, Warren Foegele day-to-day with a knee injury and William Eklund on injured reserve for Ottawa. Los Angeles lists Corey Perry and Drew Doughty as day-to-day, and Mats Zuccarello, Alex Turcotte and Jakub Dvorak on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Kings’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, the Senators’ in 45 of 82. Los Angeles’s home games averaged 5.75 goals, Ottawa’s road games 6.76.
That is 47.6% and 54.9%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 53.2% and the under at 46.8%, so our number leans to the under by 2.0 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Ottawa is -1.5 at +210 and Los Angeles +1.5 at -258, which is 30.9% and 69.1% without the margin. Over 2025-26 the Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Kings lost by two or more in 21 of 82. Averaged, Senators -1.5 lands 29.9% of the time against 30.9% priced, a gap of 1.0 point toward Kings +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and this is a lean of one point. No bet on this game.
Senators at Kings, Thursday 29 October, 10:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Ottawa’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.