Islanders vs Wild Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Islanders on the moneyline. Even with Filip Gustavsson out and our number re-run on Minnesota’s home games without him, the Wild come out a 54.4% home winner against the 63.1% the price gives them.

The New York Islanders are +160 and the Minnesota Wild -192 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 36.9% for New York and 63.1% for Minnesota. Our number is 45.6% for the Islanders. The gap is 8.7 points, and a side is a bet at 5.

How 54.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury (ESPN injury list, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC; entry dated 18 October, return date given as 19 November). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Gustavsson appeared in 50 of Minnesota’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jesper Wallstedt’s 35, and in 26 of the 41 home games the method reads. In the 15 home games without him, the Wild went 9-4-2, a 60.0% home win rate. Our minimum for an NHL re-run is 10 games, so 15 is enough to use.

The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average 60.0% with 48.8% and the Wild are 54.4%, the Islanders 45.6%. That is 8.7 points better for New York than the price.

The full home season points the same way, by more. Over all 41 home games the Wild went 23-10-8, a 56.1% home win rate; on that number Minnesota is 52.4% and the gap is 10.7 points toward the Islanders. Minnesota won more often at home without Gustavsson than with him, so the re-run makes the Wild stronger and the gap narrower. It stays above 5 either way.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +160 and -192 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Islanders are 36.9% and the Wild 63.1%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and so far it has gone well for Minnesota. The Wild are 9-3-2, 4-0-0 at home, and won 3-1 at Utah Mammoth on Tuesday 27 October. Wallstedt has played 12 of their games and Calvin Pickard two. The Islanders are 6-4-2, 2-3-1 on the road, and won 4-3 in a shootout in Nashville on Tuesday. Ilya Sorokin has played eight of their games and Semyon Varlamov four.

Minnesota at home, New York on the road

Over the full season the Wild at home scored 3.17 a game and allowed 2.80, a surplus of 0.37. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.14. Those are the halves our number reads.

The halves the method leaves out: Minnesota on the road went 23-14-4, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.46 and allowing 3.05. New York at home went 22-17-2, 53.7%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98. The Wild won as often away as at home last season, and that road half is not in our number.

Over the full season Minnesota went 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32. It beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-1 to Colorado. The Islanders went 43-34-5 with 91 points, were outscored by 8, and missed the playoffs.

New York lived in close games. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. Minnesota went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of its 27 past 60 minutes. The Islanders lost by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games; the Wild won by that much in 26.

The two teams split their 2025-26 meetings. Minnesota won 5-2 in New York on 7 November 2025, a game in neither half of our number. The Islanders won 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota on 10 January 2026, a game inside the Islanders’ road half and the Wild’s full home season.

Pick: Islanders +160

Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +160. The gap is 8.7 points toward New York on Minnesota’s home games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5, and 10.7 on the full home season.

The line read Islanders +160 and Wild -192 on 28 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +164 and -198. Since the open the market gives the Islanders 0.6 points more, 36.9% against 36.3%.

What kills the bet

A shorter Islanders price. At +147 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at; against the Wild at -192, they stay a bet down to +123.

For the Wild to become the bet, they would have to be +103 or longer. They are -192.

The rest is on the ice. Minnesota’s 9-3-2 start is not in our number. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Jared Spurgeon day-to-day (undisclosed), and Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno and Brock Faber on injured reserve for Minnesota. The Islanders list Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie on injured reserve. No other goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -120 and under +100. The Wild’s games went over 5.5 in 50 of 82, the Islanders’ in 41 of 82. Minnesota’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, New York’s road games 5.66.

That is 61.0% and 50.0%, an average of 55.5% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, so our number leans to the over by 3.3 points. That is under 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Minnesota is -1.5 at +124 and New York +1.5 at -148, which is 42.8% and 57.2% without the margin. Over the full season the Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 29.9% of the time against 42.8% priced, a gap of 12.9 points toward Islanders +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Islanders at +160.

Islanders at Wild, Thursday 29 October, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Minnesota’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.