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Mammoth vs Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 28 Oct 2026

No bet on the Utah Mammoth at the Pittsburgh Penguins. Our number has Pittsburgh 2.4 points better than the price does, and we need 5 to bet.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are +110 and the Utah Mammoth -130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 45.7% for Pittsburgh and 54.3% for Utah. Our number is 48.1% for the Penguins and 51.9% for the Mammoth. The gap of 2.4 points points to the home side. It is too small to act on.

How 48.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

The Penguins went 19-13-8 at PPG Paints Arena, a 47.5% home win rate. The Mammoth went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average of 47.5% and 48.8% is 48.1% for Pittsburgh and 51.9% for Utah.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +110 and -130 these come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Penguins are 45.7% and the Mammoth 54.3%. Our 48.1% against the market’s 45.7% is 2.4 points. The threshold is 5.

Our number gives Penguins 48.1 percent, the market 45.7 percentMammoth at Penguins: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadMammoth 51.9%Penguins 48.1%The marketmoneyline, margin removedMammoth 54.3%Penguins 45.7%Moneylines: Mammoth -130, Penguins +110. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 28 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-28 19:02 UTC.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Penguins are 5-6-1 overall and 4-1-0 at home, and beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime on Saturday 24 October. Arturs Silovs has played eight of their games and Sergei Murashov four. The Mammoth are 8-5-0, 4-3-0 on the road, and lost 3-1 to the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday 27 October. Karel Vejmelka has played 11 of their games and Sebastian Cossa four.

Pittsburgh at home, Utah on the road

Over 2025-26 the Penguins at home scored 3.65 a game and allowed 3.58, a surplus of 0.07. That is a thin edge for a team with 98 points. The Mammoth on the road scored 3.20 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.37.

Penguins at home and Mammoth on the road in 2025-262025-26: Penguins at home against Mammoth on the roadGoals scored per gamePenguins at home 3.65Mammoth on the road 3.20Goals allowed per gamePenguins at home 3.58Mammoth on the road 2.83RecordPenguins at home 19-13-8Mammoth on the road 21-17-3Penguins: 40 home games. Mammoth: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 28 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out run the other way for Pittsburgh. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road, a 52.5% win rate, scoring 3.55 and allowing 3.08. The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at home, 53.7%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.02. Pittsburgh was the better team away from its own arena last season, and that half is not in our number.

The season around it

Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and a goal difference of +25, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Philadelphia Flyers. Utah finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of +28, then lost 2-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Mammoth won two more games in regulation and overtime combined; the Penguins collected more points from the 16 games they lost past regulation.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Penguins and Mammoth2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gamePenguins41-25-16+0.30 goals a gameMammoth43-33-6+0.34 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 28 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Close games split these two. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of the 23 that went past 60 minutes. The Mammoth went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of their 16 past regulation. Pittsburgh won by two goals or more 29 times and lost by two or more 18 times; Utah’s figures were 27 and 22.

The teams met twice in 2025-26. Utah won 5-4 in overtime in Pittsburgh on Sunday 14 December 2025; that game is inside both halves of our number. Pittsburgh won 4-3 in Utah on Saturday 14 March 2026, which is in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.4 points toward the Penguins against a threshold of 5. That is less than half the edge the rule asks for, so the price is close enough to our number to leave alone.

The line read Penguins +110 and Mammoth -130 on 28 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.

What kills the bet

There is no bet to kill, so this is what would create one. Against Utah at -130, Pittsburgh becomes a bet at +134 or longer. It is +110.

For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +113 or longer. They are -130.

ESPN’s injury list, read 28 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, has Ben Kindel and Samuel Girard on injured reserve for Pittsburgh, with Elmer Soderblom (upper body), Evgeni Malkin (illness) and Egor Chinakhov (lower body) day-to-day. Utah lists John Marino out with an upper-body injury, and Michael Carcone and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -130 and under +110. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82, a 57.3% rate. The Mammoth’s went over in 38 of 82, 46.3%. Pittsburgh’s home games averaged 7.23 goals, Utah’s road games 6.03.

2025-26 game totals for Penguins and Mammoth2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 6.5012345678910111213146.5Penguinsover 6.5 in 47 of 82Mammothover 6.5 in 38 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 28 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-28 19:02 UTC.

Averaged, our over is 51.8%. With the margin out, the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%, so our number leans to the under by 2.4 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +170 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. The Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 8.1 points toward Penguins +1.5 at -205. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on Pittsburgh, the same side our moneyline number tilts to. It is not a bet. No bet on this game.

Mammoth at Penguins, Thursday 29 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.