Jets at Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Jets lost 25 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes Pittsburgh 54.9%: bet the Penguins at +101 or better, Winnipeg at +150 or better.

Our number is 54.9% for the Pittsburgh Penguins and 45.1% for the Winnipeg Jets. No line had been posted for this game as of 28 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Penguins went 20-13-8 at home last season: 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games, below half. The Jets went 16-19-6 on the road, so they lost 25 of 41, a 61.0% road loss rate. The average of 48.8 and 61.0 is 54.9 for the Penguins, and 45.1 for the Jets.

So Pittsburgh’s edge comes from the visitor’s half. The Penguins did not win at home often enough to be favoured on their own record. Winnipeg lost on the road often enough to make up the difference.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures.

The Penguins at home, the Jets on the road

At home, the Penguins scored 3.66 goals a game and allowed 3.49. The Jets on the road scored 2.61 and allowed 3.24. That is 1.05 goals a game more scored by the home side, and 0.25 more allowed.

Pittsburgh’s home games were high-scoring at both ends: 7.15 goals a game between the two teams. Their road record, 21-12-8, carried one more win than their home record.

The Jets were the other way round. They went 19-16-6 at home and 16-19-6 away, three wins fewer on the road.

Across the full season the Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points, scoring 3.57 and allowing 3.27, a margin of 0.30 goals a game. Sixteen of their losses came after regulation. In one-goal games they went 12-7-16, which is 12 wins in 35. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Philadelphia Flyers.

The Jets finished 35-35-12 with 82 points and were outscored by 0.35 a game, 2.82 to 3.17. They did not reach the playoffs.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and split. The Jets won 5-2 in Winnipeg on 1 November. The Penguins won 5-4 in a shootout in Pittsburgh on 21 March. Two games prove nothing about a third.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so the page states the prices at which this becomes a bet.

The Penguins need the market to rate them at 49.9% or less, with the margin removed. At +101 or better, that holds whatever Winnipeg is priced at. The Jets need 40.1% or less, which +150 or better guarantees.

Both break points are underdog prices. Our number has Pittsburgh 4.9 points above even, so the Penguins become a bet only when the market makes them the underdog.

Pick: Penguins at +101 or better, Jets at +150 or better

Our number is 54.9% for Pittsburgh. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games from last season: 41 at home for the Penguins and 41 on the road for the Jets.

What changes it

The price. The full page re-reads the line on the day of the game. A Penguins price of even money, or a Jets price just under +150, may still qualify once the book’s margin is taken out, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 5 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Jets at Penguins, Monday 5 October, 7:30 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.