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Serie A Predictions and Picks

Free Serie A predictions and picks for every match. We price the home win, the draw and the away win, and bet only where our number and the market's are 5 points apart.

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Sunday 18 October1 game

Serie A teams

The lowest-scoring of the big five

Serie A is a goals-scarce league, and the numbers say so plainly. In 2025-26 its matches averaged 2.43 goals, the lowest among the big five leagues. In 45.3% of matches both sides scored; 45.8% went over 2.5; 36 ended 0-0.

Away sides travel well

Serie A gave away sides more than any other big league in 2025-26: 133 wins in 380, 35.0%. Home sides won 148, 38.9%; 99 matches were drawn, 26.1%. A home edge carried over from England or Spain overstates it here.

How the matches finish

The commonest result was 1-0 either way, 78 matches, one in five. Then 2-1, 2-0, 1-1 and 0-0. In no other big league did 0-0 make the top five scores.

The most common final scores, Serie A 2025-260%5%10%15%20%20.5%1-016.8%2-114.5%2-09.7%1-19.5%0-06.8%3-05.5%2-24.7%3-1Share of games
Share of 380 league games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The market priced it low. From December to May it posted most matches at 2.5 goals, and they went over 99 times in 206, 48.1%. When it went down to 1.5, the over came in 16 times in 26.

How often the over came in, by the total posted, Serie A 2025-260%20%40%60%80%61.5%Total 1.548.1%Total 2.5Over
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026; totals posted on at least 15 games. Games per total: 1.5 26, 2.5 206, 3.5 5. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Goals by month ran from 2.05 in August, on 20 matches, to 2.62 in January.

Goals per game, month by month, Serie A 2025-26012342.05Aug2.50Sep2.20Oct2.41Nov2.43Dec2.62Jan2.48Feb2.61Mar2.30Apr2.42MayGoals per game
Both teams combined; months with fewer than 10 games left out. Games per month: Aug 20, Sep 30, Oct 40, Nov 39, Dec 37, Jan 58, Feb 40, Mar 36, Apr 40, May 40. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The draw, as priced

From December to May the draw came in below its price in Serie A’s even matches: 24 draws in 93 against a priced 31.3%. Clear favorites drew 17 times in 71, also under the price. Heavy favorites, above 60%, drew 16 times in 73, close to it.

Serie A 2025-26: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%31.3%25.8%Even game27.7%23.9%Clear favorite20.6%21.9%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 93, clear favorite 71, heavy favorite 73. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

These are half-season samples of 71 to 93 matches. The direction is consistent across two of three bands; the size is not large enough to bet on without a price that agrees.

Serie A’s paying sides

Stake a unit on each Serie A side to win every priced match from December to May: Cagliari returned 11.3 units on 8 wins in 24. Udinese returned 9.6 on 9; Parma 9.5 on 8 in 23. At the bottom, Pisa won once in 24 and cost 21.5 units; Cremonese and Hellas Verona each cost more than 13.

Serie A 2025-26: one unit on a club to win, every priced gameCagliari+11.3 (8 wins in 24)Udinese+9.6 (9 wins in 24)Parma+9.5 (8 wins in 23)Fiorentina+3.8 (9 wins in 24)Bologna+2.4 (9 wins in 23)Genoa-5.3 (7 wins in 24)Lecce-6.0 (7 wins in 24)Hellas Verona-13.9 (2 wins in 24)Cremonese-14.7 (3 wins in 23)Pisa-21.5 (1 wins in 24)
A draw loses the bet. Only the 237 of 380 games where ESPN holds all three prices, Dec 2025 to May 2026; the 5 best and 5 worst of 20 clubs. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

A handful of wins at long prices can outearn many more at short ones. The count of wins is not the result.

The long shots

Underdogs won 45 of the 237 priced matches outright. Three of the four longest came against AC Milan: Parma won 1-0 at +850 in February, Cagliari 2-1 at +750 on the final day, and Udinese 3-0 at +600 in April. Fiorentina beat Juventus 2-0 at +750.

The longest prices that won, Serie A 2025-26Parma +850 over AC Milan, 1-0Fiorentina +750 over Juventus, 2-0Cagliari +750 over AC Milan, 2-1Udinese +600 over AC Milan, 3-0Lazio +550 over Napoli, 2-0Cagliari +550 over Juventus, 1-0
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 45 such wins among the 237 priced games, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The method

Each side’s expected goals come from the club method on our soccer predictions page: home and away scoring rates set against what the opponent lets in, each relative to Serie A’s mean, turned into three chances by a Poisson model. A result is a bet when our chance clears the market’s by 5 points.

Serie A betting tips, by the numbers

  • Expect few goals. 2.43 a match, and 0-0 in 36 of 380.
  • Do not overrate the home side. Away sides won 35.0% of Serie A matches.
  • The 2.5 total leans under. 99 overs in 206, December to May.
  • Long prices win here. Cagliari made 11.3 units on 8 wins.
  • Five points, or pass.

Serie A sides

Serie A’s clubs are listed below. Open one to see the run of fixtures and the predictions we have made for them.

Questions and answers

Is Serie A a low-scoring league?

Yes: in 2025-26, 2.43 on average, the fewest of Europe’s big five leagues. 45.8% of matches went over 2.5.

Do away teams win often in Serie A?

More than in any other big European league: 133 of 380 matches in 2025-26, 35.0%.

Which Serie A result paid the longest price?

Parma’s 1-0 win over AC Milan in February 2026, at +850.

Past games

  1. Genoa at AS Roma · 17 OctAS Roma -180
  2. Inter Milan at Bologna · 17 OctInternazionale -190
  3. Napoli at Venezia · 17 OctNo bet
  4. Udinese at Torino · 12 OctUdinese +205
  5. Venezia at Atalanta · 12 OctNo bet
  6. Milan at Sassuolo · 11 OctAC Milan -125
  7. AS Roma at Como · 11 OctComo +145
  8. Bologna at Lecce · 11 OctBologna -115
  9. Juventus at Cagliari · 11 OctCagliari +475
  10. Monza at Lazio · 11 OctNo bet
Show all 35 past predictions
  1. Fiorentina at Genoa · 10 OctGenoa +210
  2. Frosinone at Napoli · 10 OctNo bet
  3. Parma at Inter Milan · 10 OctNo bet
  4. Lecce at Milan · 20 SepThe AC Milan vs Lecce recap delivered almost exactly what handicap bettors wanted from a heavy home favorite.
  5. Napoli at Fiorentina · 20 SepThe Fiorentina vs Napoli recap ended with neither side able to turn strong spells into three points.
  6. Como at Frosinone · 20 SepThe Frosinone vs Como recap was a direct lesson in the danger of paying a short road-favorite price when the underdog has a clear transitio…
  7. Atalanta at Juventus · 20 SepThe Juventus vs Atalanta recap rewarded bettors who trusted the home side’s stronger early-season chance profile.
  8. Genoa at Parma · 20 SepThe Parma vs Genoa recap turned against under bettors in the 80th minute.
  9. Torino at Bologna · 19 SepThe Bologna vs Torino recap delivered the low-scoring game the preview expected, even if the projected home win did not arrive.
  10. Inter Milan at AS Roma · 19 SepThe Roma vs Inter recap delivered the kind of heavyweight Serie A match the table promised.
  11. Cagliari at Udinese · 19 SepThe Udinese vs Cagliari recap was decided by the exact kind of mistake that makes short soccer prices dangerous.
  12. Lazio at Venezia · 19 SepThe Venezia vs Lazio recap came down to two penalty-area moments involving the same Venezia attacker.
  13. Sassuolo at Monza · 18 SepThe Monza vs Sassuolo recap belonged to Gustavo Varela.
  14. Fiorentina vs Pisa Picks, Predictions and Odds · 15 SepFiorentina host Pisa in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence, Italy.
  15. Genoa vs Südtirol Recap: Johan Vásquez’s 87th-Minute Goal Breaks the Deadlock · 15 SepThe Genoa vs Südtirol recap played almost exactly to the narrow script anticipated before kickoff.
  16. Udinese at Inter Milan · 14 SepThe Inter Milan vs Udinese recap delivered the favorite result, but almost nothing about the route was comfortable.
  17. AS Roma at Torino · 14 SepTorino host Roma on Monday, September 14, 2026, at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A Matchday 4.
  18. Parma at Como · 13 SepThe Como vs Parma recap produced the rare split where the favorite won the soccer match but the preview's underdog handicap also delivered.…
  19. Monza at Lecce · 13 SepThe Lecce vs Monza recap rewarded the home-side price immediately.
  20. Bologna at Napoli · 13 SepThe Napoli vs Bologna recap followed the pregame betting thesis almost exactly.
  21. Cagliari at Atalanta · 12 SepThe Atalanta vs Cagliari recap produced the biggest Serie A betting reversal of Saturday’s three-match group.
  22. Frosinone at Genoa · 12 SepThe Genoa vs Frosinone recap rewarded bettors who trusted the ScoresAndStats underdog protection.
  23. Milan at Lazio · 12 SepThe Lazio vs AC Milan recap delivered exactly the type of uncertainty the ScoresAndStats preview warned bettors not to overprice.
  24. Juventus at Sassuolo · 12 SepThe Sassuolo vs Juventus recap turned into a brutal lesson in late-match game management.
  25. Fiorentina at Venezia · 11 SepThe Venezia vs Fiorentina recap became the exact kind of match the pregame handicap was trying to avoid.