2025-26 NFL Divisional Round Odds and Predictions

The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with the Divisional Round, one of the most important stages of the postseason for bettors. With only eight teams remaining, every matchup features elite talent, tighter spreads, and fewer mistakes, which makes this round especially appealing for those looking to attack the NFL odds with a sharper edge.

The Divisional Round is also where experience, coaching, and situational football begin to outweigh raw talent. Teams that survived Wild Card Weekend now face opponents coming off a bye, creating unique matchup dynamics that can be exploited across the board at the top sports betting sites. Whether you’re betting spreads, totals, or moneylines, line movement and game script matter more than ever at this stage.

Below, we’ll break down the full NFL Divisional Round schedule, examine the latest NFL betting lines, and make our Divisional Round predictions for every game on the slate. As always, shopping for the best numbers and pairing your picks with the right bankroll strategy can make all the difference in January.

NFL Divisional Round Schedule

The NFL Divisional Round is where the betting board usually tightens up. No more bad teams, fewer “free squares,” and spreads that often come down to a single key matchup edge. With the stakes this high, we also tend to see more conservative decision-making early, then more aggressive fourth-down choices once the game script demands it.

Compared to Wild Card Weekend, totals can be trickier to project because weather, pace, and playoff nerves matter more. One stalled red-zone drive or one short-field turnover can swing both the spread and total in a hurry. That’s why shopping for the best numbers is so important this week. A half-point on a spread or a point on a total can be the difference between winning and pushing.

Below, we break down every Divisional Round matchup with updated odds and predictions, including early leans on spreads and totals. If you’re looking for additional angles, be sure to check out our NFL picks and player prop bets for even more ways to approach the slate.

In addition to our Divisional Weekend preview below, if you are in need of more NFL predictions for this weekend or all the way up to Super Bowl 60, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership. And, you can test it out for free!

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NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Let’s take a look at every matchup for the Divisional Round and make our best NFL Picks for each Playoff game:

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Odds

The Buffalo Bills arrive in Denver with momentum after a hard-fought 27–24 Wild Card win over Jacksonville, a game that showcased their ability to win without everything going perfectly. Josh Allen was sharp and efficient, completing 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards with no interceptions, and he once again played a major role near the goal line with his legs. Buffalo controlled long stretches of that game by staying ahead of the sticks, converting manageable third downs, and avoiding the kind of mistakes that can swing a playoff matchup on the road.

Offensively, the Bills leaned heavily on short and intermediate passing concepts to compensate for a banged-up receiving group. Khalil Shakir was the clear focal point, hauling in 12 catches for 82 yards, while Brandin Cooks and Dalton Kincaid chipped in timely plays to keep drives alive. Buffalo did not generate much on the ground from its running backs, finishing with just 79 rushing yards as a team, but Allen’s scrambling ability helped balance the offense when Jacksonville overcommitted to coverage. That adaptability has been a defining trait of this Bills team down the stretch.

The challenge ramps up significantly against a Denver Broncos defense that has been elite at home and has had an extra week to prepare after earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Denver’s secondary is among the best in the league at limiting yards after the catch, which directly attacks Buffalo’s recent offensive approach. If the Broncos can rally to the ball the way they have all season, the Bills may be forced into more difficult downfield throws than they faced against Jacksonville. That puts pressure on Buffalo’s pass protection to hold up against a fresh Denver pass rush.

From Denver’s perspective, the bye week could not have come at a better time. The Broncos have built their success on defensive consistency, ball control, and capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes rather than trying to outgun them. Playing at altitude only amplifies that advantage, especially against a Buffalo offense coming off a physical road game. If Denver can start fast, force Buffalo into longer third downs, and keep Allen contained in the pocket, the Broncos are well-positioned to dictate the tempo and turn this into a grind rather than a shootout.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Predictions

Spread: Broncos -1.5 (+100)
Denver’s defense, altitude advantage, and extra week of preparation give them a meaningful edge in a matchup that projects to be tight throughout. Buffalo’s offense was efficient against Jacksonville, but it leaned heavily on short-area throws and Josh Allen’s mobility. That style becomes much harder to sustain against a rested Broncos defense that excels at limiting yards after the catch and forcing longer third downs. Laying less than a field goal at home offers solid value.

Total: Under 46.5 (-112)
Both teams are built to win playoff games by controlling tempo rather than pushing pace. Buffalo showed last week it is comfortable grinding out drives and protecting the football, while Denver has consistently slowed opponents with defense and field position. With two disciplined defenses and postseason decision-making, this game sets up as more methodical than explosive.

Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-112)
At near pick’em pricing, Denver’s home-field advantage and defensive consistency tip the scales. The Broncos have been dominant in this building all season, and if they can force Buffalo into sustained drives rather than quick strikes, they are well-positioned to close this one out late.

Bet: Broncos -1.5 (+100), Under 46.5 (-112), Broncos ML (-112)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds

The Seattle Seahawks enter the Divisional Round rested and confident after earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and they have been playing their best football on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing has allowed the secondary to stay disciplined, limit explosive plays, and force opponents to sustain long drives. That defensive profile is especially important against a San Francisco offense that thrives on timing, yards after the catch, and staying on schedule.

The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, arrive with plenty of momentum after knocking off Philadelphia on the road in the Wild Card round. Brock Purdy threw for 262 yards and accounted for multiple touchdowns, while the offense leaned on efficiency rather than volume. San Francisco did not dominate the ground game, finishing with just 75 rushing yards, but they made up for it by hitting chunk plays through the air and converting key downs when the game tightened in the second half. Winning in that environment showed the 49ers can handle pressure spots away from home.

Familiarity adds another layer to this matchup. These teams just met in Week 18 with the NFC West title on the line, a game Seattle won in Santa Clara by controlling tempo and limiting San Francisco’s margin for error. That result flipped the script compared to Week 1, when the 49ers went into Seattle and came away with a win. The back-and-forth nature of the season series reinforces how thin the margins are here, especially with both coaching staffs knowing each other inside and out.

Seattle’s edge lies in its ability to wear teams down late at home. Sustained drives, defensive depth, and crowd noise have consistently tilted close games in the Seahawks’ favor in the second half. For San Francisco to pull another road upset, they will need to avoid turnovers, win early downs, and stay patient if points are hard to come by. If the 49ers are forced to chase the game, Seattle’s defensive structure becomes far more difficult to crack.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Predictions

Spread: 49ers +7.5 (-115)
With these teams so familiar with one another, getting more than a touchdown is appealing. San Francisco has already proven it can win in this building, and their ability to shorten the game keeps this within reach.

Total: Under 44.5 (-105)
Both defenses are built to limit explosives, and playoff game scripts often lean conservative early. A slower pace and longer drives point toward the under.

Moneyline: Seahawks (-355)
Seattle’s rest advantage and home-field edge give them the clearest path to winning outright, even if the game stays competitive throughout.

Bet: 49ers +7.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105), Seahawks ML (-355)

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Odds

The Houston Texans arrive in Foxborough playing as well as any team left in the postseason. They are riding a 10-game winning streak and just dismantled Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round, winning 30–6 in a game that was effectively over by halftime. Houston’s defense set the tone early and never let up, holding the Steelers to 112 passing yards, forcing turnovers, and consistently collapsing the pocket. It was another reminder that this unit is not just good, but arguably the best defense in the NFL right now.

What makes Houston especially dangerous is how complete the defensive profile is. The Texans can stop the run without selling out, generate pressure with their front four, and still keep coverage integrity on the back end. Against Pittsburgh, C.J. Stroud did not need to be perfect because the defense repeatedly handed the offense short fields. That same formula travels well, and it puts enormous pressure on opposing quarterbacks to be efficient on every drive. Few defenses are better equipped to dictate terms in a road playoff game than this one.

The New England Patriots deserve credit for a 14-3 regular season and a Wild Card win over the Chargers, but this matchup represents a major step up in competition. New England’s schedule was widely regarded as the easiest in the league, and they rarely faced elite defensive fronts or sustained pass rush throughout the season. Drake Maye showed poise against Los Angeles, throwing for 268 yards, but he was also sacked five times in a relatively controlled environment. That margin for error disappears against Houston.

This game likely comes down to whether New England can protect Maye well enough to stay on schedule. Houston’s pass rush has been relentless over the second half of the season, and if the Texans force long-yardage situations, the Patriots’ offense could bog down quickly. On the other side, Houston’s offense does not need to force the issue. With a defense capable of winning field position and creating extra possessions, the Texans can play patiently and let the pressure mount on a New England team that has not been tested like this all season.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots Predictions

Spread: Texans +3 (-102)
Getting a full field goal with the hotter, more battle-tested team is hard to pass up. Houston’s defense gives them a very high floor in this spot.

Total: Under 40.5 (-102)
New England will struggle to generate sustained offense against this pass rush, and Houston is comfortable winning games without pushing tempo.

Moneyline: Texans +142
Houston’s defense is the difference-maker. If they control the line of scrimmage the way they have all postseason, the Texans have a clear path to winning outright. They’re the top underdog of the week.

Bet: Texans +3 (-102), Under 40.5 (-102), Texans ML (+142)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears Odds

The Los Angeles Rams are back in the Divisional Round after surviving a tense Wild Card game against Carolina, rallying late to pull out a 34–31 win on the road. Matthew Stafford put up over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns, and while he did injure his throwing hand during the game, all signs point to him playing through it on Sunday night. The Rams did not play a clean game defensively, but when they needed answers late, Stafford and the passing attack delivered.

What continues to separate Los Angeles is its offensive ceiling. Even in less-than-ideal conditions last week, the Rams were able to generate chunk plays through the air and spread the field with multiple weapons. Kyren Williams and the run game were steady enough to keep the defense honest, and that balance allowed Stafford to pick his spots. If the hand issue limits him at all, expect the Rams to lean more on quick throws and timing routes rather than holding the ball.

The Chicago Bears also needed a dramatic comeback to advance, erasing an 18-point deficit to knock out Green Bay in the Wild Card round. Caleb Williams threw for over 350 yards and led a furious second-half rally, showing poise well beyond his years. That performance highlighted Chicago’s upside, but it also exposed some concerns. The Bears were slow out of the gate, struggled to protect early, and needed everything to break right late to escape.

Sunday night conditions at Soldier Field loom large in this matchup. Frigid temperatures and wind typically favor the more experienced quarterback, and that edge clearly belongs to Los Angeles. Chicago’s offense is explosive, but it has been inconsistent, especially when forced into longer down-and-distance situations. If the Rams can avoid early defensive lapses and make Chicago earn points methodically, the pressure shifts quickly to a young Bears offense playing its biggest game yet.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears Predictions

Spread: Rams -3.5 (-118)
Los Angeles has the higher offensive ceiling and the quarterback edge, even on the road. Laying a manageable number is justified.

Total: Under 48.5 (-105)
Cold weather, playoff nerves, and a likely more conservative game script point toward fewer explosive plays than last week.

Moneyline: Rams (-198)
If Stafford is upright and functional, the Rams’ experience and offensive versatility should be enough to close this out late.

Bet: Rams -3.5 (-118), Under 48.5 (-105), Rams ML (-198)

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

• Houston Texans moneyline (+142) vs. New England Patriots
• Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-118) vs. Chicago Bears
• San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-115) vs. Seattle Seahawks

If you combine these three into a Divisional Round parlay, you’re looking at odds in the +700 to +750 range, depending on the book. A $100 wager would return roughly $800–$850, making it a strong upside-driven playoff parlay built around matchup edges rather than public narratives.

As always, shop lines, manage bankroll responsibly, and focus on spots where the number offers value, not just the team name on the helmet.