NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyDAL+3U 48.5+124HOU-3O 48.5-148
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Cowboys at Texans Final Score: Cowboys Win 34-30
Final: Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30, Sunday 4 October at Reliant Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Give me the Texans at -3, one unit, nothing on the total.” Texans -3 lost: Houston lost by 4.
What decided it
Dallas won the third quarter by 7. Dallas turned the ball over 0 times to Houston’s 0, and gained 399 yards to 397.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 34 |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 30 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is HOU -3, with a total of 48.5. Houston did not cover as the favourite. The 64 points went over the total.
What comes next
Dallas plays next against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday 8 October: our prediction. Houston plays next at the Tennessee Titans on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Cowboys at Texans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Houston is 0-3 and laying only 3 at home to a team that allowed 30 a game last season. Give me the Texans -3.
Dallas visits Houston on Sunday 4 October, kickoff 1:00 PM ET. The market and last season disagree about this game by more than eight points, and I am siding with last season.
How the card works, same as every week. My number is last season’s scoring for and against, 17 games each, turned into a margin, with two points for the home side. I bet a side or a total only when the market sits three points or more away from that number. One unit on every bet, and every price is the median of the US books, read 1 October.
Texans -3 (-110)
Houston went 12-5 last season and outscored its opponents by 109 points. Dallas went 7-9-1 and was outscored by 40. The Texans allowed 17.4 points a game. The Cowboys allowed 30.1.
What is nearly thirteen points a game of defence worth at home? On last season’s rates, Houston by nearly nine before home field and by nearly eleven with it. The market has Houston by 3. That is a gap of more than seven and a half points.
The Dallas offence is real. It scored 27.7 a game last season and has scored 29.3 so far in this one. The trouble is at the other end, where the Cowboys gave up 40 or more three times last season and 34 to Baltimore on Sunday. A 3-point spread asks Houston to win by more than a field goal, and a win by exactly three gets the stake back. The Texans won seven one-score games last season. Give me Houston.
Worst price to bet: Texans -7.5 (-110). At -8 I pass.
Concede the 0-3
This is the part that makes the price. Houston lost 36-31 at home to Buffalo, 20-6 at home to Cincinnati, and 19-17 at Indianapolis on Sunday. Eighteen points a game, minus 21 on the season, and no wins.
Dallas is 1-2 and plus six. The Cowboys lost 28-20 at the Giants, beat Washington 37-20, and lost 34-31 at home to Baltimore. If three games count for more than seventeen, Dallas is the right side and this line is too short in the other direction.
Houston has been here before
Look at the start of the Houston row. Last season the Texans also opened 0-3, losing by five, one and seven. They then won 12 of their last 14, including the last nine in a row. A slow September is what last season looked like at the same point.
Personally, I think the market is pricing the three games and forgetting the seventeen. Dallas went 3-6 on the road last season and allowed 29.8 a game away from home. Houston went 7-2 at home and allowed 19.1. Give me the Texans.
Where the price has gone
It has moved half a point. This line was first quoted on 16 September at Houston -2.5 and -3, and on Monday nine of 10 books hung -2.5. Read on 1 October, all 11 books hang -3, most at -110. DraftKings is -3 at -112, the same on ESPN, and that is the reference. The gap to my number is still more than seven points, so the move costs nothing that matters.
The total
Forty-eight, the median of 11 books, with FanDuel at 47.5 and two books, DraftKings among them, at 48.5. On Monday it was 47.5. My number is 49.5, a point and a half over, and short of the three I need.
The two teams pull in opposite directions. Dallas games went over 48 in 13 of 17 last season, Houston games in four of 17. This season Dallas games have finished on 48, 57 and 65 points, Houston games on 67, 26 and 36. No bet on the total. When the evidence splits this cleanly I would rather pass than pick a side of it.
The moneyline
The median prices are Houston -161 and Dallas +136, which makes the Texans 59.3 percent to win once the margin comes out. That is a fair price for a 3-point favourite. My edge is in the size of the gap, and the spread pays that better than the moneyline does.
Give me the Texans at -3, one unit, nothing on the total.
This call comes from last season’s 17-game rates and this week’s prices, read 1 October. The rest of the Week 4 card is on our NFL predictions page.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Dallas Cowboys: Doubtful: Cobie Durant (CB, hamstring); questionable: Malik Hooker (S, forearm – fracture), DeMarvion Overshown (LB, hamstring), Shavon Revel Jr. (CB, knee); on injured reserve: Jonathan Bullard (DT, calf), Jalen Thompson (S, hamstring), Tyler Smith (G, thumb – surgery), P.J. Locke (S, foot – plantar fasciitis), Malik Davis (RB, hip – surgery), Matt Hennessy (C, neck – surgery), Devin Moore (CB, undisclosed), DJ Rogers (TE, knee), Marist Liufau (LB, forearm – fracture), Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (DT, triceps), Princeton Fant (TE, knee – acl + mcl – surgery).
Houston Texans: Out: M.J. Stewart (S, knee), E.J. Speed (LB, quadriceps – surgery); doubtful: Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, groin); questionable: Will Anderson Jr. (DE, ankle), British Brooks (RB, hamstring), Trent Brown (OT, illness), Calen Bullock (S, quadriceps), Logan Hall (DE, knee), Jake Hansen (LB, calf), Nico Collins (WR, hamstring – strain), Ed Ingram (G, groin), Jadeveon Clowney (DE, knee – bruise); on injured reserve: Mario Edwards Jr. (DT, knee – acl – surgery), Jake Hummel (LB, groin), Henry To’oTo’o (LB, shoulder), Kayden McDonald (DT, ankle), Jayden Higgins (WR, knee – acl – surgery), Tank Dell (WR, knee – acl + mcl – surgery), Sam Hagen (G, undisclosed), Braden Smith (OT, foot – plantar fasciitis), Solomon Byrd (DE, ankle – sprain), Ali Gaye (DE, knee), Ja’Marcus Ingram (CB, shoulder), Dylan Horton (DE, achilles – surgery), K.C. Ossai (LB, undisclosed), Graham Mertz (QB, knee – acl – surgery).