NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyCHI+1.5U 5.5+154NYI-1.5O 5.5-185
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Blackhawks at Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Islanders or the Blackhawks. New York becomes a bet at -115, Chicago at +175.
The New York Islanders are -185 and the Chicago Blackhawks +154 at DraftKings, which is a 62.2% chance for the Islanders once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Islanders 58.5%. The gap is 3.7 points toward the Blackhawks. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 29 September. No line was posted then, and the call was the Islanders at -115 or better or the Blackhawks at +174 or better. Neither price is on offer, so it is still no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at home, meaning 22 wins, 17 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation. That is a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average is 58.5% for the Islanders, which leaves 41.5% for the Blackhawks.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -185 and +154 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Islanders at 62.2% and the Blackhawks at 37.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Islanders and 41 road games for the Blackhawks. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Islanders at home, the Blackhawks on the road
The Islanders at home scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.98. The Blackhawks on the road scored 2.59 and allowed 3.41. Both sides were outscored in these games, the Blackhawks by far more: 0.82 a game against 0.05.
Most of our number comes from Chicago’s road record. The Blackhawks lost 26 of 41 away. The Islanders won only 22 of 41 at home, a little over half.
The Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points, were outscored by 8 goals and missed the playoffs. The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, were outscored by 62 goals and missed the playoffs as well.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and won one each, both on the road. New York won 3-2 in a shootout at Chicago on 30 December, and Chicago won 4-3 at New York on 24 March. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.7 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Islanders opened at -205 and the Blackhawks at +170, which put New York at 64.5%, a gap of 6.0 points toward Chicago. At the open, the Blackhawks were a bet. The price has since shortened to +154, and the gap has closed to 3.7. Read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Islanders were -185 and the Blackhawks +154.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Blackhawks become a bet at +175 or longer, whatever the Islanders are priced at. The Islanders need -115 or longer, a long way from -185.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Islanders’ games went over 5.5 in 41 of 82 and the Blackhawks’ in 42 of 82. The Islanders’ home games averaged 5.91 goals, the Blackhawks’ road games 6.00.
The two over rates, 50.0% and 51.2%, average 50.6%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed, 3.7 points above our rate, so our rate leans to the under by 3.7. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Islanders -1.5 at +124 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -148. The Islanders won by two goals or more in 16 of 82 games. The Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, New York -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 42.8% priced, a gap of 14.1 points. Lean Blackhawks +1.5 at -148. It stays a lean, because the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
Blackhawks at Islanders, Thursday 8 October, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.