NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyOTT+1.5U 5.5+110NJ-1.5O 5.5-130
NHL · Monday 12 October
Senators at Devils Final Score: Senators Win 4-1
Final: Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 1, Monday 12 October at Prudential Center.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Senators at +110. Our number has this game level, the market leans to the Devils, and the difference stops 0.7 points short of a bet.”
What decided it
Ottawa won the second period by 2. Ottawa had 20 shots to New Jersey’s 30, and scored 1 power-play goal to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| New Jersey Devils | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Ottawa Senators -102, New Jersey Devils -118, with a total of 5.5. New Jersey, the favourite, lost. The 5 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Ottawa plays next at the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday 29 October. New Jersey plays next at the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Senators at Devils Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Senators at +110. Our number has this game level, the market leans to the Devils, and the difference stops 0.7 points short of a bet.
The New Jersey Devils are -130 and the Ottawa Senators +110 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 54.3% chance for New Jersey and 45.7% for Ottawa. Our number gives each team 50.0%. The gap is 4.3 points toward the Senators, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
The mid page of 30 September had no line to read and named either side a bet at +122 or longer. The posted prices reach neither mark: the Devils are a favourite at -130, and the Senators at +110 are 12 cents short of +122. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Devils went 21-17-3 at home, meaning 21 wins, 17 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Senators went 21-15-5 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 50.0% for New Jersey, which leaves 50.0% for Ottawa.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -130 and +110 the two prices add to 104.1%. Removed, it leaves the Devils at 54.3% and the Senators at 45.7%.
The two halves of our number sit 2.4 points apart, either side of even. The market puts the Devils 4.3 points above their average. That is most of the way to the threshold and still under it, and a gap under the threshold is a pass at any size.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Devils and 41 road games for the Senators. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Devils at home, the Senators on the road
The Devils at home scored 2.95 goals a game and allowed 3.02, so visitors outscored them by 0.07 a game. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37, ahead by 0.02 a game.
The building made no difference to the Devils’ win count. They went 21-20-0 on the road, the same 21 wins in 41 games as at home, a 51.2% win rate in both. The Senators were better in Ottawa: 23-12-6 at home, a 56.1% win rate over 41 games, against 21 wins on the road. The method uses the Senators’ road half, the weaker of their two.
Across 82 games the Devils played 16 that went past 60 minutes and lost 3 of them. In one-goal games they went 20-8-3. The Senators played 17 games past 60 minutes and lost 11. In one-goal games they went 16-10-11.
The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points and were outscored by 24 goals over 82 games. The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored their opponents by 32. The Devils did not play in the playoffs. The Senators lost their one series 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes.
So the market makes a favourite of the team that finished 12 points behind last season, on its own ice. The method, which reads only the home and road halves, cannot separate them.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Devils won two: 4-3 in Ottawa on 9 December and 4-3 in overtime in New Jersey on 12 April. The Senators won 4-1 in Ottawa on 31 January. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Senators +110
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points against a 5-point threshold, toward the Senators.
ESPN shows the same pair as the opening price: Devils -130 and Senators +110. Read on 11 October 2026 at 16:21 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, New Jersey was -130 and Ottawa +110.
What changes it
The price, and on the Senators’ side it is close. Neither team is a bet while the market, margin removed, rates the Devils anywhere from 45.0% to 55.0%. Today’s 54.3% sits 0.7 points inside the top of that band.
With the Devils left at -130, the Senators become a bet at +117 or longer, 7 cents past today’s +110. At +122 or longer they are a bet whatever the Devils are priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin. The Devils are much further away. They would need +122 or longer themselves, in a pair that carries a margin, against -130 now.
Beyond the price, this page states nothing about either lineup on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Devils’ games went over 5.5 in 40 of 82 and the Senators’ in 45 of 82. New Jersey’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, Ottawa’s road games 6.76.
The two over rates, 48.8% and 54.9%, average 51.8%. The over at -125 is priced at 53.2% with the margin removed. The gap is 1.4 points, on the under’s side and far short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Devils -1.5 at +185 and the Senators +1.5 at -225, which is 33.6% and 66.4% once the margin is out. New Jersey won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games. Ottawa lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Averaged, Devils -1.5 lands 23.8% of the time against 33.6% priced, so the Senators +1.5 land 76.2% against 66.4%. That is a gap of 9.8 points, built on the same last-season rates as the moneyline. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the puck line a gap this size is a lean: the Senators +1.5, at -225, a price that returns little. There is no bet on this game.
Senators at Devils, Monday 12 October, 7:00 PM ET, Prudential Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 October 2026, 16:21 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.