We’re back with another slate of Week 8 NFL player props, spotlighting value on rushing, receiving, and passing lines across Sunday’s games. Below, you’ll find five of our favorite numbers based on usage, trends, and current odds from top NFL betting sites.

Whether you’re building out your slip or looking for correlated props, be sure to check out our latest player prop picks for deeper angles and matchup trends.

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Here’s a breakdown of each prop, analyzing matchups, trends, and key factors to help you make informed NFL bets:

C.J. Stroud – Over 198.5 Passing Yards (–114)

Matchup: Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

C.J. Stroud has cleared 198.5 passing yards in 5 of 6 games on this log (207, 204, 233, 244, 229), with the lone miss at 188 in Week 1. That’s a 83% hit rate and a season average of around 217.5 yards (1,305 yards over 6 games), so this number sits a full chunk below his typical output.

Even when Houston stayed balanced (27–28 attempts in multiple wins), Stroud still pushed past 200 thanks to strong efficiency (64.8% completions, 6.8 YPA) and consistent intermediate success.

The game environment also tilts toward volume. As a slight underdog, Houston is more likely to lean pass-heavy late – mirroring the 49-attempt spike in the Seattle loss – and those catch-up drives create extra yardage opportunities even on short-area throws. On the other side, San Francisco’s defense is missing impact names like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, which softens both the pass rush and the middle-of-field coverage that typically cap YAC.

With a line below his average and a script that favors additional attempts, the over 198.5 is the sharper side.

Mac Jones – Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (+120)

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Houston Texans

Mac Jones is a pocket quarterback who only runs out of necessity. He’s at 34 rushing yards on 21 carries (1.6 YPC) in five starts, with weekly totals of 6, –1, 5, 13, 11. That’s just 2 unders and 3 overs, but the overs required multiple scrambles in games with heavy dropback volume. His median is 6 yards – basically right on this number – so any game without two meaningful scrambles (or one longer scramble) tilts hard to the under. Add in end-of-game kneel-downs that chip away at QB rushing totals, and the downside for an under ticket is relatively protected.

Context leans under, too. Brock Purdy is still out, and Jones has been nursing multiple injuries, which typically suppresses scramble frequency and invites quicker throwaways. Houston’s defense is elite and has been disciplined about keeping quarterbacks in the pocket rather than ceding free lanes.

And stylistically, San Francisco leans on Christian McCaffrey to carry the ground game; there are almost no designed QB runs in this offense. If SF’s plan is to let Jones manage from the pocket while CMC handles the rushing load, 5–6 rushing yards becomes a ceiling outcome – not a baseline – making Under 5.5 at +120 a value play.

Nick Chubb – Over 1.5 Receptions (–105)

Matchup: Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

Nick Chubb’s pass-game involvement has been real, not hypothetical. Through six games he’s logged 13 targets and 8 catches, with weekly lines of 0, 2, 3, 2, 0, 1. That’s 3 of 6 already clearing the number, and the usage profile is exactly what you want for a low threshold: quick flares, screens, and checkdowns.

The target counts (1, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3) tell a better story. He’s seen at least one target every week and 2+ targets in four of six, which is typically enough volume to land two grabs when game flow cooperates.

Game script and opponent context both help. Houston is a slight underdog, which generally nudges the pass rate and checkdown frequency upward as drives lengthen and two-minute situations pop up.

On top of that, this is a banged-up San Francisco front (missing headliners like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner per your notes). A compromised pass rush often forces defenses to concede underneath space to protect the back end – prime real estate for RB targets. With Chubb already integrated into the quick game and Houston likely to throw a bit more than baseline, two receptions is a modest ask that aligns with both his usage and the matchup dynamics.

Woody Marks – Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (–110)

Matchup: Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

The usage trend is pointing straight up for rookie Woody Marks. Marks opened the year as the No. 2, but his last three games played show a clear shift toward feature-back snaps: 56% in Week 4, 39% in Week 5, and 63% in Week 7. That Week-7 jump coincided with Nick Chubb dropping to 25%, and Marks led the backfield in total snaps. Carry volume has followed: after the early feel-out weeks (3, 3, 6 carries), he’s logged 17, 7, and 10 in his last three appearances—an average of 11.3 attempts that already clears this 9.5 line.

The role fits the number. Houston has used Marks primarily on early downs and in clock-friendly situations, which makes him less game-script fragile than a pure change-of-pace back. Even in competitive or mildly negative scripts, Houston keeps the run involved to protect the QB and set up play-action; that balance helped Marks reach 10+ attempts in two of his last three.

With the snap share now tilting his way and the staff trusting him for sustained series (not just a drive or two), 10 carries is a realistic baseline, not a ceiling. If Houston plays from ahead at any point – or simply strings together a couple of long drives – Marks could get over 9.5 by the mid-fourth.

Bo Nix – Under 33.5 Passing Attempts (–107)

Matchup: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys

Last week’s 50 pass attempts for Bo Nix came with extreme context: Denver fell into a big 4th-quarter hole vs. the Giants, had to go hurry-up, and essentially abandoned the run. Strip out that outlier and you get a much more balanced usage profile: 40, 30, 25, 42, 39, 30 attempts in the previous six outings. In the three games where Denver wasn’t forced into catch-up mode, Nix landed in the 25–30 range, comfortably below this number.

Sean Payton’s preferred script keeps Nix efficient and the run game active. Nix himself chips in on the ground (38 rushes for 172 yards, 3 TDs), which naturally trims dropbacks and shortens games when Denver isn’t chasing.

If this week stays neutral or Denver plays from ahead for stretches, the Broncos can lean on their backs and QB run element, turning 1st-and-10s into 2nd-and-manageable and capping pass volume. With the 50-attempt spike tied to a one-off rally script, the likeliest outcome sits closer to the low-30s—making Under 33.5 the value side.

The Best Week 8 NFL Player Props Parlay

For a high-payout parlay, consider combining:

• C.J. Stroud Over 198.5 Passing Yards (–114)
• Woody Marks Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (–110)
• Bo Nix Under 33.5 Passing Attempts (–107)

This NFL parlay mixes two volume-friendly plays (Stroud’s modest yardage line and Marks’ expanding early-down role) with a game-script under on Nix’s attempts. You’re banking on Houston’s pass rate in a slight-dog script, Marks’ rising snap share translating to double-digit carries, and Denver returning to a balanced plan that keeps Nix below the late-game spike we saw in last week’s comeback. It’s a correlation-light trio built around predictable usage rather than volatility.

At these prices, a $100 stake returns about $693 if all three legs cash. For a slightly bolder profile, you could swap Marks for Mac Jones Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (+120) to pair two QB-related unders. And if you’re building out more slips, don’t forget to check our College Football parlay picks for Saturday action.ks for some Saturday action before the NFL slate kicks off.