NBA
NBA · Sunday 1 November
Raptors vs Lakers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Raptors at +150. Our number gives Toronto 42.7%, the price gives 38.4%, and the 4.3-point gap is short of our 5-point line.
The Toronto Raptors are +150 and the Los Angeles Lakers -180 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 38.4% for Toronto and 61.6% for Los Angeles. Last season’s home and road records put Toronto 4.3 points higher than the price does. We bet at 5, so this is a pass.
How 57.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. Neither team played one.
The Lakers went 28-13 at home, a 68.3% win rate over 41 games. The Raptors went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The average is 57.3% for Los Angeles and 42.7% for Toronto.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -180 and +150 the pair comes to 104.3%. Taken out, the Lakers are 61.6% and the Raptors 38.4%.
This season is not in our number. The Lakers are 4-2, 2-1 at home, and lost 112-95 at the Golden State Warriors on Friday 30 October. The Raptors are 3-2, 1-1 on the road, and lost 121-114 to the Orlando Magic the same night. Rosters change over a summer, and our number does not see that either.
Los Angeles at home, Toronto on the road
At home the Lakers scored 118.0 points a game and allowed 114.0, a margin of 4.0. The Raptors on the road scored 114.0 and allowed 112.8, a margin of 1.2.
These are the halves the method leaves out. Toronto at home went 24-17, scoring 115.3 and allowing 110.8. Los Angeles on the road went 25-16, scoring 114.7 and allowing 115.2.
The season around it
The Lakers finished 53-29, seeded fourth in the Western Conference. They scored 116.3 and allowed 114.6 a game, a difference of 1.7. The Raptors finished 46-36, seeded fifth in the Eastern Conference, and outscored opponents by 2.8 a game, 114.6 to 111.8.
Toronto had the better per-game difference with the worse record. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, the Lakers went 11-4 and the Raptors 7-5. Los Angeles won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 21 that way. Toronto won 33 by 10 or more and lost 23. The Raptors played 4 overtime games and the Lakers 1.
In the playoffs the Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 4-2, then lost 4-0 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Raptors lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3.
The Lakers won both meetings. In Los Angeles they won 110-93 on Sunday 18 January 2026. That game is in our number: one of the Lakers’ 41 home games and one of the Raptors’ 41 road games. In Toronto they won 123-120 on Thursday 4 December 2025, a game in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points toward Toronto, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Raptors +150 and Lakers -180 on 1 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Raptors +145 and Lakers -175. With the margin out, the open gave Los Angeles 60.9%. The current price gives them 61.6%, a move of 0.7 points toward the Lakers since opening.
What kills the bet
A longer Toronto price turns the pass into a bet. At +165 or longer the Raptors are a bet whatever Los Angeles is priced at. With the Lakers at -180, Toronto becomes a bet at +157.
For the Lakers to be the bet, they would need to be priced at -109 or longer whatever Toronto is priced at. Against the current +150 on the Raptors, the Lakers would need to be +128 or longer. They are -180.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 1 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, has Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Nate Bittle (foot) out for Toronto. For Los Angeles it has Adou Thiero (knee) out and Ziaire Williams (foot) day-to-day. Our method has no player rule for this game, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 227.5, over -110 and under -110. The Lakers’ home games went over 227.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate. The Raptors’ road games went over in 19 of 41, 46.3%. Lakers home games averaged 232.0 points and Raptors road games 226.8. Across the full season, Los Angeles went over in 50 of 82 and Toronto in 37 of 82.
The two venue rates average 56.1% for the over. The market prices it at 50.0%, so our count leans over by 6.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so the over is a lean and not a bet.
The spread is Lakers -4.5 at -110 and Raptors +4.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Los Angeles beat that line in 24 of 41 home games, and Toronto beat its side in 22 of 41 road games. Averaged, Lakers -4.5 comes to 52.4% against 50.0% priced. That is a 2.4-point gap, less than half our threshold. It points the other way from the moneyline gap, and neither is big enough to bet. On this game, we pass.
Raptors at Lakers, Sunday 1 November, 9:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026, 02:32 UTC.