NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyMIN-1.5U 42.5-123TB+1.5O 42.5+105
NFL · Sunday 27 September
Vikings at Buccaneers Final Score: Vikings Win 23-16
Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16, Sunday 27 September at Raymond James Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Buccaneers +1.5. Take the points and the home team.” Buccaneers +1.5 lost: Tampa Bay lost by 7.
What decided it
Minnesota won the second quarter by 4. Minnesota turned the ball over 1 time to Tampa Bay’s 2, and gained 230 yards to 243.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is TB -1.5, with a total of 42.5. Tampa Bay did not cover as the favourite. The 39 points went under the total.
What comes next
Minnesota plays next against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. Tampa Bay plays next against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Vikings at Buccaneers prediction: Take Buccaneers +1.5”.
Tampa Bay is getting 1.5 at home. I am taking the Buccaneers and the points.
The line has moved a long way and it moved against the home team. Last week Tampa Bay was favoured. They are now underdogs in their own stadium. That is the whole reason I am on this side.
Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
Look at where that started and where it is. A home team going from favourite to 2.5-point underdog in under a week is a big move, and it came off a fortnight of results rather than anything structural. Since Monday it has come back a point. The median across 11 US sportsbooks, read at 00:46 UTC on 24 September 2026, is Tampa Bay +1.5, with eight books there, two at 2 and one at pick’em.
Minnesota is 2-0 and Tampa Bay is 0-2. That is the move. Two games.
What last season says
Minnesota went 9-8 with a +11 points differential. Tampa Bay went 8-9 at -31. One win between them across a full season, and 42 points of differential.
That is a one-point gap, maybe one and a half. With Tampa Bay at home, last season says this game is a coin flip or a shade toward the Buccaneers. The market has it one and a half the other way.
Worst price I would take: Buccaneers +1.5, and that is where the median now sits. The price has given back a point since Monday, which is a point less value, and 1.5 still clears. Below 1.5 the edge is gone, so at the one book showing pick’em I pass.
State the doubt
Tampa Bay has been beaten twice and Minnesota has not been beaten at all, and I am backing the team that has lost both games. If the 0-2 start reflects something real about this Tampa Bay side rather than a hard opening fortnight, I am on the wrong side and the number will look generous by Sunday evening.
I am taking it anyway, because a 17-game sample beats a two-game sample and the market has just repriced on the two-game one.
The total
Forty-two and a half, a point lower than on Monday.
Minnesota scored 20.2 a game and allowed 19.6 last season, which is the profile of a team that plays in the low forties. Tampa Bay scored 22.4 and allowed 24.2. The dots cluster around this number rather than to one side of it, and I am not betting a total I cannot separate.
Injury report
From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.
Minnesota Vikings: On injured reserve: Jamal Adams (LB, quadriceps), Tyler Batty (LB, knee – acl), Jordan Mason (RB, thumb), Benjamin Yurosek (TE, undisclosed); questionable: DeeJay Dallas (RB, toe), Jake Golday (LB, ankle), Jonathan Greenard (LB, pectoral), Bryson Nesbit (TE, undisclosed), Jalen Redmond (DT, elbow), Brett Thorson (P, hamstring).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: On injured reserve: Josh Hayes (CB, knee), Mohamed Kamara (LB, knee); questionable: Rueben Bain Jr. (LB, groin), Anthony Nelson (LB, shin), Josiah Trotter (LB, shoulder).
The moneyline
53.2 percent for Minnesota once the juice is out, from medians of -125 and +105, which is close to the coin flip last season’s rates describe. The spread is where the disagreement is, not here.
Last season in full
Neither of these teams blew many people out and neither got blown out often. That is the shape of a close game, and in a close game the points matter more than the side.
Buccaneers +1.5. Take the points and the home team.