NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyCOL-1.5U 6.5-225CGY+1.5O 6.5+185
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Avalanche at Flames Final Score: Avalanche Win 7-3
Final: Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3, Thursday 8 October at Scotiabank Saddledome.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Flames at +185.” The Flames moneyline lost: Calgary lost 7-3.
What decided it
Colorado won the second period by 3. Colorado had 30 shots to Calgary’s 29, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Calgary Flames | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Colorado Avalanche -238, Calgary Flames +195, with a total of 6.5. Colorado, the favourite, won. The 10 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Colorado plays next against the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Calgary plays next at the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Avalanche at Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Flames at +185. The bet holds down to +166, and stops there.
The Colorado Avalanche are -225 and the Calgary Flames +185 at DraftKings, which is a 33.6% chance for the Flames once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Flames 42.7%. The gap is 9.1 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so the Flames are a bet.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was a price for each side. The posted +185 on Calgary is long enough to clear its half, so the call is now the Flames.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Flames went 23-13-5 at home, meaning 23 wins, 13 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road and lost 12 of 41, a 29.3% road loss rate. The average is 42.7% for the Flames, which leaves 57.3% for the Avalanche.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -225 and +185 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Avalanche at 66.4% and the Flames at 33.6%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Flames and 41 road games for the Avalanche. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. Our number still has Colorado as the favourite. The bet is that Calgary’s price is too long, and it loses whenever Colorado wins.
The Flames at home, the Avalanche on the road
The Flames at home scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.61. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32. Both sides outscored their opponents in these games, the Flames by 0.32 a game and the Avalanche by 1.22.
Calgary was two teams last season. The Flames won 23 of 41 at home and 11 of 41 on the road. Our number uses only the home half.
The Flames finished 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 47 goals, 0.57 a game, and missed the playoffs. The Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99 goals. They beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-0 and the Minnesota Wild 4-1 in the playoffs, then lost 4-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and Colorado won all three. The Avalanche won 9-2 at home on 30 March, 3-1 at home on 9 April and 3-1 at Calgary on 14 April. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Flames at +185
Bet the Flames on the moneyline at +185. The gap is 9.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Flames +180 and Avalanche -218, which put Calgary at 34.3% and the gap at 8.4 points. Since then the Flames have drifted to +185 and the Avalanche shortened to -225, so the gap has widened. Read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Flames were +185 and the Avalanche -225.
What changes it
A shorter price on the Flames. The bet holds at +166 or longer, whatever Colorado is priced at. Shorter than that, pass. The Avalanche would need -109 or longer, a long way from -225.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Flames’ games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82 and the Avalanche’s in 32 of 82. The Flames’ home games averaged 5.54 goals, the Avalanche’s road games 5.86.
The under is the side here. The two under rates, 64.6% and 61.0%, average 62.8%. The under at -120 is priced at 52.2% with the margin removed, 10.6 points below our rate. Lean under 6.5 at -120. It stays a lean, because the only method this page stakes money on is the moneyline one.
The puck line has the Avalanche -1.5 at +110 and the Flames +1.5 at -130. The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games. The Flames lost by two or more in 33 of 82. Averaged, Colorado -1.5 lands 45.1% of the time against 45.7% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Avalanche at Flames, Thursday 8 October, 9:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.