NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyPHI+1.5U 5.5+110BOS-1.5O 5.5-130
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Flyers at Bruins Final Score: Bruins Win 5-1
Final: Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1, Saturday 10 October at TD Garden.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Bruins at -130. Our number likes Boston by 3 points more than the market does, and the bar is 5.”
What decided it
Boston won the third period by 2. Boston had 32 shots to Philadelphia’s 15, and scored 0 power-play goals to 1.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Boston Bruins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Philadelphia Flyers +124, Boston Bruins -148, with a total of 5.5. Boston, the favourite, won. The 6 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Philadelphia plays next at the Washington Capitals on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Boston plays next at the St. Louis Blues on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Flyers at Bruins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Bruins at -130. Our number likes Boston by 3 points more than the market does, and the bar is 5.
The Boston Bruins are -130 and the Philadelphia Flyers +110 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 54.3% chance for Boston and 45.7% for Philadelphia. Our number gives the Bruins 57.3%. The gap is 3.0 points toward Boston, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Bruins at -109 or better or the Flyers at +166 or longer. Neither price is on the board. Boston at -130 costs more than -109, and Philadelphia at +110 is well short of +166. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Bruins went 29-11-1 at home, meaning 29 wins, 11 regulation losses and 1 loss after regulation. That is a 70.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 57.3% for Boston, which leaves 42.7% for Philadelphia.
The two halves pull hard against each other. Boston won 70.7% of its home games. Philadelphia won 56.1% of its road games, 23 of 41. Both cannot hold in one building on one night, and the average splits the 26.8 points between them.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -130 and +110 the two prices add to 104.1%. Removed, it leaves the Bruins at 54.3% and the Flyers at 45.7%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Bruins and 41 road games for the Flyers. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. The market has Boston as the favourite, and so do we, by a little more.
The Bruins at home, the Flyers on the road
The Bruins at home scored 3.54 goals a game and allowed 2.56, a margin of 0.98 a game. The Flyers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.17. Both teams were ahead on goals in these games, Boston by far more.
Each team did better in the half that meets here. Boston went 16-16-8 on the road, 13 fewer wins than at home; that road record leaves out a shootout loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning at Raymond James Stadium on 1 February, a neutral-site game. Philadelphia went 20-13-8 at home, three fewer wins than on the road.
The Bruins finished 45-27-10 with 100 points and outscored opponents by 22 goals over 82 games. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Buffalo Sabres. In one-goal games they went 20-8-10.
The Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 7 goals. They beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes. Twenty-eight of their 82 regular-season games went past regulation, against 22 for Boston.
The teams met three times in 2025-26. Boston won 6-3 at home on 29 January. Philadelphia won 3-1 at home on 28 February and 2-1 in overtime at home on 5 April. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Bruins -130
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.0 points toward Boston, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Bruins -130 and Flyers +110 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 9 October 2026 at 14:57 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Boston was -130 and Philadelphia +110.
What changes it
A move toward Philadelphia. With the Flyers left at +110, the Bruins become a bet at -109 or better, a drop of 21 cents. At -109 or better they are a bet whatever the Flyers are priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin. The Flyers need +166 or longer on the same terms, which is a long way from +110.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Bruins’ games went over 5.5 in 47 of 82 and the Flyers’ in 44 of 82. Boston’s home games averaged 6.10 goals, Philadelphia’s road games 6.56.
The two over rates, 57.3% and 53.7%, average 55.5%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. The gap is 1.2 points, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Bruins -1.5 at +195 and the Flyers +1.5 at -238. Boston won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games. Philadelphia lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Boston -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 32.5% priced. That leans to the Flyers +1.5, by 3.8 points, under the bar. Pass on the puck line.
Flyers at Bruins, Saturday 10 October, 1:00 PM ET, TD Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 14:57 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.