NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyPHI+1.5U 5.5-105OTT-1.5O 5.5-115
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Flyers at Senators Final Score: Senators Win 2-1
Final: Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1, Thursday 8 October at Canadian Tire Centre.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number leans to the Flyers by 1.1 points. No bet.”
What decided it
Ottawa won the first period by 1. Ottawa had 26 shots to Philadelphia’s 29, and scored 1 power-play goal to 1.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ottawa Senators | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Philadelphia Flyers +150, Ottawa Senators -180, with a total of 5.5. Ottawa, the favourite, won. The 3 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Philadelphia plays next at the Washington Capitals on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Ottawa plays next at the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Flyers at Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number leans to the Flyers by 1.1 points. No bet.
The Ottawa Senators are -115 and the Philadelphia Flyers -105 at DraftKings, which is a 51.1% chance for the Senators once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Senators 50.0%. The gap is 1.1 points toward the Flyers. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 30 September, but the price has. It read Senators -112 and Flyers -108 then, a gap of 0.4 points. The move to -115 and -105 has widened it to 1.1, still well short of 5.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Senators went 23-12-6 at home, meaning 23 wins, 12 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 50.0% for the Senators, which leaves 50.0% for the Flyers.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -115 and -105, it leaves the Senators at 51.1% and the Flyers at 48.9%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Senators and 41 road games for the Flyers. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Senators at home, the Flyers on the road
The Senators at home scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.63. The Flyers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.17. Both sides outscored their opponents in these games, the Senators by 0.76 a game and the Flyers by 0.22.
The two halves match. The Senators won 23 of 41 at home, and the Flyers won 23 of 41 on the road. Equal win rates are why our number sits at even.
The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 0.39 goals a game. They lost their one playoff series 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points, ahead by 0.09 a game. They beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2, then lost 4-0 to the Hurricanes.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Senators won all three, each by one goal. They won 2-1 at home on 23 October, 3-2 in overtime at Philadelphia on 8 November and 2-1 in overtime at Philadelphia on 5 February. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Senators opened at -125 and the Flyers at +105, which put Ottawa at 53.2%, a gap of 3.2 points toward the Flyers. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Senators were -115 and the Flyers -105.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. Our number has the two teams level, so the line is the same for both: the Flyers become a bet at +123 or longer, whatever the Senators are priced at, and so do the Senators.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -102 and under -118. The Senators’ games went over 5.5 in 45 of 82 and the Flyers’ in 44 of 82. The Senators’ home games averaged 6.02 goals, the Flyers’ road games 6.56.
The two over rates, 54.9% and 53.7%, average 54.3%. The over at -102 is priced at 48.3% with the margin removed, 6.0 points below our rate. Lean over 5.5 at -102. It stays a lean, because the only method this page stakes money on is the moneyline one.
The puck line has the Senators -1.5 at +200 and the Flyers +1.5 at -245. The Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. The Flyers lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Senators -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 31.9% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Flyers at Senators, Thursday 8 October, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.