2025 Conference USA Football Odds and Predictions 

By:

Rick Bouch

in

NCAAF

Last Updated on

When you think about the College Football Playoffs, Conference USA isn’t a conference that typically comes to mind. This is a growing conference with some underrated schools, but you simply aren’t going to get many teams from here with a chance to take over the nation.

Dreams of the College Football Championship die early, but this is still a fun conference with some talented teams. Just look at last year, where Sam Houston was a 10-win team and Jacksonville State University went 7-1 within the conference and 9-5 overall.

Good, but not great teams, to be sure. They may not have a real shot to do damage in the 2025 CFP race, but we can still bet on how they’ll fare within Conference USA. So, who has the best Conference USA odds, and who will actually win? Let’s take a look and find out.

What Teams Are In The Conference USA?

  • University of Delaware: joined in 2025
  • Florida International University: joined in 2013
  • Jacksonville State University: joined in 2023
  • Kennesaw State University: joined in 2024
  • Liberty University: joined in 2023
  • Louisiana Tech University: joined in 2013
  • Middle Tennessee State University: joined in 2013
  • Missouri State University: joined in 2025
  • New Mexico State University: joined in 2023
  • Sam Houston State University: joined in 2023
  • University of Texas El Paso: joined in 2005
  • Western Kentucky University: joined in 2014

When Is The Conference USA Championship Football Game? 

The 2025 Conference USA football title game is slated for Friday, December 5th. 

Conference USA Odds

Check out the latest NCAAF odds for the Conference USA, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Conference USA TeamConference OddsTotal WinsMake Playoffs
Liberty Flames-110O/U 9.5 Wins (-120/110)+1100
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers+450O/U 7.5 Wins (-125/-105)+2800
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders+1000O/U 4.5 Wins (-165/+135)+10000
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs+1000O/U 6.5 Wins (+135/-165)+6600
Jacksonville State Gamecocks+1100O/U 6.5 Wins (+180/-220)+4000
Sam Houston State Bearkats+1100O/U 4.5 Wins (-135/+105)+10000
UTEP Miners+1100O/U 5.5 Wins (+115/-145)+10000
FIU Panthers+1200N/A+10000
New Mexico State Aggies+2500O/U 4.5 Wins (-135/+105)+10000
Kennesaw State OwlsN/AO/U 3.5 Wins (-135/+105)+10000

Not every team has Conference USA odds, which goes a long way to tell you how likely it is for some to even keep things competitive in 2025.

Right now, the Liberty Flames are the obvious choice to win it all this year, while Western Kentucky is the only legit challenger. Liberty wasn’t in contention for the top spot in 2024 (5-3 in the conference), but they could make a big jump up, while WKU (6-2) wasn’t that far from claiming the conference title.

Liberty has claimed two conference championships in the past, winning as recently as 2023. Western Kentucky also got to the promised land in 2024, but bowed out disgracefully (52-12) in a blowout loss to Jacksonville State.

Despite winning last year, Jacksonville State has much longer odds (+1100), but obviously stands out as a pretty compelling value bet. That’s the case for several teams in this conference, as just two teams enter the new year with odds north of +1000.

The odds don’t tell the full story, of course. Before finalizing your Conference USA bets, let’s see who stands out as the top contenders and best sleepers.

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Conference USA Favorites

The following College Football teams are considered the favorites to win the Conference USA: 

Liberty Flames (-110)

The Liberty Flames enter 2025 with the best odds to win Conference USA. Liberty won the conference championship just two years ago and was in the mix in 2024 (5-3 in the conference, 8-4 overall), so it isn’t so shocking.

Liberty is just two seasons removed from a spectacular 13-1 run, where many felt they had national title potential. The Flames aren’t quite as good as they were then, but they’re still a sound offensive team, having scored 27.6 points per game in 2024 (60th).

The Flames have done their best work on the ground lately, as they had legitimately one of the nation’s best ground games last season. Quinton Cooley spearheaded a unit that cracked the top-10 in several key areas, most notably rush play percentage, yards per rush, rushes per game, and rushing yards per contest.

He’s gone to the CFL now, of course, which puts major pressure on the rest of Liberty’s backfield to replace him and somehow maintain their elite production on the ground. With a less than imposing passing attack, it could be absolutely crucial for that transition to be successful – and quickly.

Western Kentucky (+450)

Due to the unknowns with Liberty’s offense, I tend to lean toward superior value with a team like the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. They offer way more alluring Conference USA odds at +450, and they literally were playing for the title last year.

Western Kentucky admittedly didn’t put up much of a fight in the end, but they still had a chance to play for the league championship for the second time in four seasons. In addition, Western Kentucky tied for the second best record in the conference during the regular season, and they also put up 243 points on offense.

The Hilltoppers were more than capable on offense, but they were the opposite of the Flames, as they were a dazzling passing offense that ranked 12th in yards per pass and 34th in passing yards per game. 

The issue with Western Kentucky is that they lost star quarterback Cade Veltkamp to Florida Atlantic via transfer. After a brilliant showing by him last year, their biggest question mark will be figuring out how to stay relevant through the air without him.

Jacksonville State (+1100)

Another legit Conference USA contender is the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, who are a really interesting option after ranking sixth in the country in scoring (36 points per game. Obviously they put up huge production against lower level competition, but they finished the year with the best record (7-1) in this conference and ultimately crushed Western Kentucky (52-12) in the title game.

So, why the big drop off? Jacksonville State is going from being the defending champs to an overlooked contender. The main reason why is they lost stud running back Tre Stewart to the NFL and dual threat quarterback Tyler Huff graduated.

This leaves the Gamecocks searching for huge replacements at two key positions. Stewart alone could be impossible to replace, as he churned out elite production last year with over 1,600 yards and 18 scores on the ground.

As big of a loss as Stewart is, losing someone like Huff at the same time is positively brutal. While Huff and this passing game weren’t overly scary, he was a dynamo on the ground, helping to keep defenses honest with his own rushing prowess (1,344 yards and 15 touchdowns).

Jacksonville State could potentially replace both players, but even failing to do so with one position could put them in a bad spot. That said, the coaching and system are there for the Gamecocks to still be a real threat in Conference USA and bettors get a discount to roll the dice on them.

The Best Conference USA Betting Value

Want a little more value, but with a few teams that actually could in Conference USA? Try Sam Houston on for size.

You wouldn’t really expect them to be here after finishing second in the Conference USA standings last year. They had a stout 10-3 record and were 6-2 in the conference, while limiting teams to a disgusting 129 points on the year.

Seriously, I know the level of competition wasn’t insane, but this squad had the 19th best scoring defense in the entire country in 2024 (20.5 points per game allowed). In addition, they ranked 53rd against the run, 9th against the pass, 5th in interception rate, and 45th in sack rate.

Across the board, the Bearkats had a truly special defense – one that could punish you up front, sniff out the run, get after the quarterback, and take advantage of your mistakes. The problem? They did most of their damage against weak opponents and their offense wasn’t nearly as good as their defense.

Still, this defense has serious bite and can alone make Sam Houston a legit title contender – and appealing sleeper pick – even if the offense can’t pick up some slack. Most of the teams in Conference USA are priced at +1100, but of them all, the Bearkats feel the most fun to bet on this season.

The Top Conference USA Longshot

In terms of possible Conference USA teams with longshot odds at sportsbooks, I suppose I could mention New Mexico State. They are the last team listed at most online betting sites, so you could always take a stab at their +2500 betting odds.

I’m not excited to do that, seeing as they went just 2-6 inside the conference in 2024 and were 3-9 overall. It wasn’t a great showing, while they had major issues defensively, and didn’t do nearly enough on offense to keep their opponents on offense.

Since most of the teams with Conference USA odds have similar prices, I’d just go look for another option in that +1000-+1200 range. That could have me land on Louisiana Tech, who also were not very good last year, but at least offered a strong defense and a capable offense.

Ultimately, New Mexico State is the true longshot bet within this conference at the moment, but it’s not a bet I’d want to make.

Conference USA Predictions

You can roll the dice any which way you choose, but when I make NCAAF picks, I want a mixture of value and a bet I actually feel can hit.

All things considered, I don’t think another Conference USA football team gives me more bang for my buck than the Sam Houston State Bearkats. Sam Houston is really gifted on defense. This type of aggressive and stingy unit can keep the Bearkats in virtually every single game.

That was definitely the case last year, where Sam Houston only had two losses by more than 11+ points, and they came against a tougher UCF squad and a solid Western Kentucky team within their conference.

Sam Houston was otherwise in every game they played, and won the majority of them. The big question is if their offense can find a way to match their defensive output from a year ago – and if that nasty defense can maintain its stellar play.

Given their +1100 price tag, their second place finish in the Conference USA standings, the fact they won it all in 2023, and how good they can be on the defensive side of the ball, I don’t mind rolling the dice with them in 2025.

Bet: Sam Houston Bearkats (+1100)

The Best Conference USA Win Total Bets

  • Sam Houston State Over 4.5 Wins (-135)
  • Jacksonville State Over 6.5 Wins (+185)

Before finalizing any of your 2025 Conference USA bets, I definitely suggest seeking out the best handicappers to assist with your wagers. That said, I am very high on the value we get with both Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State this year.

Sam Houston State has a lot to prove offensively, but their defense is nasty. If they can maintain the same type of production we saw out of them and get even a little bump from their offense, they have a real shot to make a run at the title in 2025.

Even if I’m wrong, Sam Houston State still has the framework to at the very worst be a competitive football team. If you don’t want to go all-in on them as the 2025 Conference USA champions, at least hammer the Over on their 4.5 win total.

I also really like the Gamecocks. I absolutely am not a fan of the talent and production they lost, but the coaching and system go a long way for this squad. They honestly may not miss a step if Gavin Wimsatt is the guy to take over the offense. He was an elite rushing threat when at Rutgers and could be even more prolific than Huff in this system.

This one is a bit riskier given the turnover, but I like the incoming talent enough to bet on the coaching and system. The best part is you don’t need Jacksonville State to repeat as champs to get crazy value. If they just win seven games at their +185 odds, you win big.

Bet: Sam Houston State Over 4.5 Wins (-135), Jacksonville State Over 6.5 Wins (+185)

Which Conference USA Teams Will Make the Playoffs?

Some of the Conference USA teams do have decent odds to make a run, while we’ve seen some pretty awesome seasons out of this conference in past years. Sam Houston went 10-3 last year, while Liberty was an impressive 13-1 two years ago.

The Flames have the best odds at +1100 at the moment, while Western Kentucky (+2800) and Jacksonville State (+4000) are at least in the conversation. Of course, with my picking Sam Houston State to win this conference, they’d be looking especially appealing at +10000.

That said, there’s a significant difference in having a defense good enough to win you the Conference USA title, and actually getting to the CFP. Ultimately, I don’t think anyone in this conference is good enough to make that happen in 2025.

Bet: No Teams

Conference USA Winners

The following is a list of the most recent Conference USA football winners:

YearTeam# of Titles
2024Jacksonville State Gamecocks1
2023Liberty Flames1
2022UTSA Roadrunners2
2021UTSA Roadrunners2
2020UAB Blazers2
2019Florida Atlantic Owls2
2018UAB Blazers2
2017Florida Atlantic Owls2
2016Western Kentucky Hilltoppers2
2015Western Kentucky Hilltoppers2