California Golden Bears

The Golden Bears lost once in 16 games as favorites in 2025-26. Backing them to win across all 31 priced games returned 6.43 units, and only 31 Division I teams did better.

Winning when expected

California were favored 16 times in 2025-26 and won 15. One unit on them in each of those games made 2.83 units; only 25 Division I teams made more as favorites. The one defeat was at home, 56-72 to Pittsburgh at -325. November alone went 6-1 with 5 covers in 6, and the longest winning run reached nine games.

The upsets

As underdogs California went 5-10, yet one unit on each of those 15 games still returned 3.60 units. Three prices made it: at Miami at +500, won 86-85; UCLA on a neutral floor at +285; North Carolina at home at +245. The Miami and North Carolina wins fell in January, a 4-4 month that returned 5.74 units. Over all 31 priced games the total was 6.43 units up.

The spread

The line was harder. California covered 16 of 30 lined games. At home, where they went 16-4, they covered only 8 of 18; on the road they went 4-6 but covered 7 of 10. Twenty teams in Division I had a better road cover rate, and six the same. By role the spread split evenly: 8 covers and 7 misses as favorites, and the same as underdogs.

Conference opponents

Stanford lost both meetings, and California covered both and won 2.50 units on them. Florida State won both, the second in the ACC tournament.

After the season

In the NIT the Golden Bears beat UIC and lost to Saint Joseph’s.

The total

Eighteen unders and 13 overs in 31 games with a total; 67 Division I teams went under more often and 10 as often. The Golden Bears scored 77.88 points a game and allowed 73.25.

Questions and answers