Virginia Cavaliers

Sixteen home wins in 17 games, yet the Cavaliers beat the home number only eight times in 2025-26. The money was on the road, where Virginia won three times as underdogs.

Home wins, home misses

Virginia finished 29-5; only six Division I teams won a bigger share, and two matched it. At home they lost once in 17. Against the spread at home they went 8-9.

Watch the margin, not the result. Eight of the nine home non-covers were wins. Laying 11.5 to Virginia Tech on 7 March, they won by four. Laying 14.5 to Wake Forest three days earlier, by five. Laying 16.5 to Maryland in December, by eight. The only home loss, 85-80 to North Carolina at -290, was the ninth.

Road underdogs

As underdogs the Cavaliers went 3-2 and covered four of five; ten teams covered more often in that spot and one matched it. All three wins came away from home: at Texas 88-69 at +145, at NC State 76-61 at +170, at Louisville 79-70 at +180. Those three paid 4.95 units.

One unit on Virginia to win in every one of the 31 priced games returned 4.83. On the road alone, 4.3 over ten priced games.

Against the number

Overall they covered 18 of 34, 52.9%, and 14 of 29 as favorites. January carried the moneyline: 7-1 and 3.69 units.

ACC rivals

NC State lost three times, the third in the ACC tournament quarterfinal, and Virginia covered all three for 2.4 units. Duke won both meetings, 77-51 and 74-70 in the tournament final. Miami lost twice. Virginia Tech split, and Virginia covered neither.

The total

Twenty unders, 13 overs; 49 teams went under more often. After two NCAA tournament games the season ended with a 79-72 loss to Tennessee.

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