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Louisville Cardinals

College Basketball

The Cardinals covered only three of their eleven road spreads in 2025-26; nine Division I teams did worse away and two matched it. At home Louisville went 15-2.

Two different teams

In their own building the Cardinals lost twice, to Duke 84-73 and Virginia 79-70, and covered 8 of 16 home spreads. On the road they were 4-7 and covered 3 of 11, at California, at Pittsburgh and at Miami. A unit on Louisville in every road game lost 5.16; in 12 priced home games the loss was only 0.81.

The Cardinals at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (17)won 15 (88.2%)covered 8 of 16 (50.0%)Away (11)won 4 (36.4%)covered 3 of 11 (27.3%)Favorite (28)won 21 (75.0%)covered 13 of 28 (46.4%)Underdog (4)won 1 (25.0%)covered 1 of 4 (25.0%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The moneyline

Five November games had no price posted. Over the other 28, a unit on Louisville every time lost 5.59. As favorites they won 21 of 28 and still lost 3.64 units, because the defeats came at short prices, among them at Stanford 80-76 at -360, Virginia at -218, at SMU 95-85 at -192. As underdogs they were 1-3, the one win at Miami, 92-89 at +105.

One unit on the Cardinals to win, every game0-6-4-2-5.59 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 28 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

January and February

The season was 7-0 in November. January and February went 9-7 straight up, 4-12 against the number and 5.6 units down. Five of those twelve misses came in games Louisville won, including a 75-62 home win over Boston College as 21.5-point favorites.

The Cardinals 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-11-03 v South Carolina State Bulldogs 104-452025-11-06 v Jackson State Tigers 106-702025-11-11 v Kentucky Wildcats 96-882025-11-15 v Ohio Bobcats 106-812025-11-21 v Cincinnati Bearcats 74-642025-11-24 v Eastern Michigan Eagles 87-462025-11-26 v NJIT Highlanders 104-472025-12-03 at Arkansas Razorbacks 80-892025-12-06 v Indiana Hoosiers 87-782025-12-13 v Memphis Tigers 99-732025-12-16 at Tennessee Volunteers 62-832025-12-20 v Montana Grizzlies 94-542025-12-30 at California Golden Bears 90-702026-01-02 at Stanford Cardinal 76-802026-01-06 v Duke Blue Devils 73-842026-01-10 v Boston College Eagles 75-622026-01-13 v Virginia Cavaliers 70-792026-01-17 at Pittsburgh Panthers 100-592026-01-24 v Virginia Tech Hokies 85-712026-01-26 at Duke Blue Devils 52-832026-01-31 v SMU Mustangs 88-742026-02-04 v Notre Dame Fighting Irish 76-652026-02-07 at Wake Forest Demon Deacons 88-802026-02-09 v NC State Wolfpack 118-772026-02-14 v Baylor Bears 82-712026-02-17 at SMU Mustangs 85-952026-02-21 v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 87-702026-02-23 at North Carolina Tar Heels 74-772026-02-28 at Clemson Tigers 75-802026-03-03 v Syracuse Orange 77-622026-03-07 at Miami Hurricanes 92-892026-03-11 v SMU Mustangs 62-582026-03-12 v Miami Hurricanes 73-78Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
23-10 in 33 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Opponents

Duke beat Louisville twice, the second time 83-52 away, and the Cardinals covered neither. SMU was met three times: two Louisville wins, one cover. Miami split the pair, the second meeting ending the ACC tournament run, 78-73. In the NCAA tournament Louisville beat South Florida 83-79 and lost 77-69 to Michigan State.

The total

Twenty unders and 13 overs; 49 Division I teams went under more often. Louisville scored 84.76 a game; 19 teams scored more. The highest total they were set, 174.5 against Ohio, went over in a 106-81 win.

Questions and answers

Should we back Louisville away from home?

Not in 2025-26: 4-7 straight up away, 3 covers in 11, 27.3%.

Did backing Louisville on the moneyline pay in 2025-26?

No: 5.59 units lost over 28 priced games, 5.16 of it on the road.

Do Louisville games go under?

20 of 33 did in 2025-26.

Atlantic Coast Conference