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Oklahoma City Thunder

NBANext: at Spurs, Tue1 prediction

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NBATue 20 Oct
Oklahoma City Thunder
at
San Antonio Spurs
Our call

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday 20 October at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, with tip-off at 9:30 PM ET…

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Marcus ReedsRead the predictionThunder at Spurs prediction

No NBA team won as often in 2025-26 as the Thunder, 64 times in 82, and they covered the spread in only 39 of those games. Backing them to win every game lost 2.93 units.

Winning is not covering

Oklahoma City had the league’s best record, 64-18, and allowed 107.88 points a game, fewer than everyone except the Boston Celtics. The spread caught up with all of it: 39 covers, 43 misses, 47.6%. Seventeen teams covered more often. The Thunder scored 119.02 points a game; four teams scored more.

The Thunder 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-10-21 v Houston Rockets 125-1242025-10-23 at Indiana Pacers 141-1352025-10-25 at Atlanta Hawks 117-1002025-10-27 at Dallas Mavericks 101-942025-10-28 v Sacramento Kings 107-1012025-10-30 v Washington Wizards 127-1082025-11-02 v New Orleans Pelicans 137-1062025-11-04 at LA Clippers 126-1072025-11-05 at Portland Trail Blazers 119-1212025-11-07 at Sacramento Kings 132-1012025-11-09 at Memphis Grizzlies 114-1002025-11-11 v Golden State Warriors 126-1022025-11-12 v Los Angeles Lakers 121-922025-11-15 at Charlotte Hornets 109-962025-11-17 at New Orleans Pelicans 126-1092025-11-19 v Sacramento Kings 113-992025-11-21 at Utah Jazz 144-1122025-11-23 v Portland Trail Blazers 122-952025-11-26 v Minnesota Timberwolves 113-1052025-11-28 v Phoenix Suns 123-1192025-11-30 at Portland Trail Blazers 123-1152025-12-02 at Golden State Warriors 124-1122025-12-05 v Dallas Mavericks 132-1112025-12-07 at Utah Jazz 131-1012025-12-10 v Phoenix Suns 138-892025-12-13 v San Antonio Spurs 109-1112025-12-18 v LA Clippers 122-1012025-12-19 at Minnesota Timberwolves 107-1122025-12-22 v Memphis Grizzlies 119-1032025-12-23 at San Antonio Spurs 110-1302025-12-25 v San Antonio Spurs 102-1172025-12-28 v Philadelphia 76ers 129-1042025-12-29 v Atlanta Hawks 140-1292025-12-31 v Portland Trail Blazers 124-952026-01-02 at Golden State Warriors 131-942026-01-04 at Phoenix Suns 105-1082026-01-05 v Charlotte Hornets 97-1242026-01-07 v Utah Jazz 129-1252026-01-09 at Memphis Grizzlies 117-1162026-01-11 v Miami Heat 124-1122026-01-13 v San Antonio Spurs 119-982026-01-15 at Houston Rockets 111-912026-01-17 at Miami Heat 120-1222026-01-19 at Cleveland Cavaliers 136-1042026-01-21 at Milwaukee Bucks 122-1022026-01-23 v Indiana Pacers 114-1172026-01-25 v Toronto Raptors 101-1032026-01-27 v New Orleans Pelicans 104-952026-01-29 at Minnesota Timberwolves 111-1232026-02-01 at Denver Nuggets 121-1112026-02-03 v Orlando Magic 128-922026-02-04 at San Antonio Spurs 106-1162026-02-07 v Houston Rockets 106-1122026-02-09 at Los Angeles Lakers 119-1102026-02-11 at Phoenix Suns 136-1092026-02-12 v Milwaukee Bucks 93-1102026-02-20 v Brooklyn Nets 105-862026-02-22 v Cleveland Cavaliers 121-1132026-02-24 at Toronto Raptors 116-1072026-02-25 at Detroit Pistons 116-1242026-02-27 v Denver Nuggets 127-1212026-03-01 at Dallas Mavericks 100-872026-03-03 at Chicago Bulls 116-1082026-03-04 at New York Knicks 103-1002026-03-07 v Golden State Warriors 104-972026-03-09 v Denver Nuggets 129-1262026-03-12 v Boston Celtics 104-1022026-03-15 v Minnesota Timberwolves 116-1032026-03-17 at Orlando Magic 113-1082026-03-18 at Brooklyn Nets 121-922026-03-21 at Washington Wizards 132-1112026-03-23 at Philadelphia 76ers 123-1032026-03-25 at Boston Celtics 109-1192026-03-27 v Chicago Bulls 131-1132026-03-29 v New York Knicks 111-1002026-03-30 v Detroit Pistons 114-1102026-04-02 v Los Angeles Lakers 139-962026-04-05 v Utah Jazz 146-1112026-04-07 at Los Angeles Lakers 123-872026-04-08 at LA Clippers 128-1102026-04-10 at Denver Nuggets 107-1272026-04-12 v Phoenix Suns 103-135Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
64-18 in 82 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The plainest case is March. The Thunder went 14-1 and covered 4 of 15. October ran the same way, 6-0 with two covers. Their longest winning run was 16 games.

Favored almost every night

Oklahoma City was the underdog five times in 82 games, fewer than any other team, and won two of those five. As favorites they went 62-15 and covered 36 of 77, and the moneyline in those 77 games finished 2.30 units down.

Three home losses came at prices that rarely lose. On 5 January the Charlotte Hornets won 124-97 with the Thunder at -1050 and laying 15.5. On 23 January the Indiana Pacers won 117-114 against them at -900. On 12 February the Milwaukee Bucks won 110-93 at -625.

One unit on the Thunder to win, every game0-4-2+2-2.93 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 82 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Home and away barely differed: 34-7 and 19 covers in 41 at home, 30-10 and 20 covers in 40 on the road. The moneyline made 0.38 units at home and lost 2.31 away.

San Antonio

The San Antonio Spurs were the one team that had the Thunder’s measure. In five meetings Oklahoma City won once and covered once, and backing the Thunder in those games lost 3.68 units. Against the Los Angeles Lakers it was the reverse: four wins, four covers. The Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz also lost all four, with three Thunder covers against each.

The Thunder against the teams they played mostPhoenix Suns3-2, covered 2San Antonio Spurs1-4, covered 1Denver Nuggets3-1, covered 1Golden State Warriors4-0, covered 3Los Angeles Lakers4-0, covered 4Minnesota Timberwolves2-2, covered 1Portland Trail Blazers3-1, covered 2Utah Jazz4-0, covered 3
2025-26 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

Thunder games went over 44 times and under 38; the over rate ranked behind five teams and level with one.

Questions and answers

Did the Thunder’s 64 wins come with covers?

Not often: 39 covers in 82 games in 2025-26, 47.6%, alongside the best record in the NBA.

How often were the Thunder underdogs?

Five times in 82 games in 2025-26, fewer than any other team; they won two of the five.

Did backing the Thunder moneyline make money?

Not in 2025-26: a unit on every game lost 2.93 units, and 2.30 of that came in their 77 games as favorites.

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