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WNBA Predictions and Picks

Free WNBA predictions and picks. Our number sits beside the line on every game we cover; a gap of a point or more is a bet.

WNBA teams

The number and the threshold

A WNBA prediction from us states three things in its first lines. Our margin for the game. The market’s spread, with the book and the hour it was read. The difference, and whether it reaches one point. One point or more is a bet, with the line at which it stops being one; less is no bet.

The margin is built from each team’s record in the relevant half of its schedule: the home side’s average margin at home, the visitor’s on the road, and half the difference between the two. Where a narrower sample fits the game better, such as games against winning teams, the page says so and shows both.

The season

The WNBA regular season ran from May to mid-September in 2026: 15 teams, 44 games each, 331 games with the Commissioner’s Cup final. The playoffs follow into October.

The WNBA yearMayJunJulAugSepOctRegular seasonCommissioner’s CupPlayoffs
Approximate: the regular season from May to mid-September, 44 games a team, with the Commissioner's Cup games inside it in June; the playoffs from mid-September to the Finals in October.

Against the spread

Washington covered 26 times in 44 in 2026, the best record in the league. Golden State covered 25. New York covered 17 in 45, the fewest.

Against the spread, 2026: the six best and the six worstWashington Mystics59.1% (26-18)Golden State Valkyries56.8% (25-19)Minnesota Lynx54.5% (24-20)Las Vegas Aces53.3% (24-21)Indiana Fever52.3% (23-21)Chicago Sky52.3% (23-21)Connecticut Sun47.7% (21-23)Toronto Tempo47.7% (21-23)Dallas Wings47.7% (21-23)Atlanta Dream45.5% (20-24)Phoenix Mercury43.2% (19-25)New York Liberty37.8% (17-28)
Share of games each team covered, regular season; record in brackets. All 15 teams ranked. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Fifteen teams and 44 games each is a small table, and a few results move it. A 26-18 record is 59.1%; a run of four games either way changes the ranking.

Rest

The WNBA schedule is uneven, and rest differs from game to game. In 2026, a side with a day’s more rest than its opponent won 73 of 135 games, 54.1%, and covered 76, 56.3%. Given two or more extra days, it won 35 of 60 and covered 36, 60.0%.

The better-rested team, 20260%20%40%60%80%54.1%56.3%One more day of rest58.3%60.0%Two or more days moreWon the gameCovered the spread
Games where one team had more days off than the other (three or more counted as three): 135 by one day, 60 by two or more; 128 games with equal rest left out. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Those are larger edges than the NBA showed over a far bigger sample. They are also 135 and 60 games. The direction is worth checking against a line; the size is not settled by one season.

The total

Most WNBA totals sat at 170 or more in 2026: 202 of 331 games. Those went over 101 times, exactly half. The few totals under 160 went over 10 times in 18.

How often the over came in, by size of total, 20260%20%40%60%80%55.6%Under 16056.4%160 to 164.554.2%165 to 169.550.0%170 or moreOver
Games per band: Under 160 18, 160 to 164.5 39, 165 to 169.5 72, 170 or more 202. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Scoring rose into the summer: 170.8 points a game in May, 176.9 in July, then 172.9 in September.

Points per game, month by month, 2026 regular season050100150200170.8May175.3Jun176.9Jul173.6Aug172.9SepPoints per game
Both teams combined. Games per month: May 63, Jun 82, Jul 71, Aug 85, Sep 30. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Long prices that won

Underdogs won 98 games outright in 2026. The longest was the Los Angeles Sparks over Minnesota in August, 89-82, at +950 as a 16.5-point underdog. Portland, in its first season, won three of the six longest-priced games.

The longest prices that won, 2026Los Angeles Sparks +950 over Minnesota Lynx, 89-82Washington Mystics +650 over Minnesota Lynx, 84-79Portland Fire +600 over Golden State Valkyries, 90-82Portland Fire +575 over New York Liberty, 98-96Portland Fire +575 over Atlanta Dream, 101-83Washington Mystics +550 over New York Liberty, 86-83
Underdogs that won outright, by their pre-game moneyline; 98 outright underdog wins carried a price. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

WNBA futures

Two futures pages follow the WNBA all season: WNBA championship odds and the WNBA MVP.

WNBA betting tips, by the numbers

  • One point is enough, if it is real. Our threshold is a point from the line.
  • Rest showed an edge in 2026. Two or more extra days covered 36 of 60.
  • Totals of 170 and up split evenly. 101 overs in 202.
  • Expansion teams win at long prices. Portland had three of the six longest winners.
  • No gap, no bet.

The teams

All 15 WNBA teams have pages, listed here, each with the schedule and our predictions on its games.

Questions and answers

How do WNBA teams do with more rest?

In 2026 the better-rested team won 73 of 135 games with one extra day and 35 of 60 with two or more, and covered 56.3% and 60.0%.

What was the biggest WNBA upset of 2026?

By price, the Los Angeles Sparks over the Minnesota Lynx, 89-82 at +950 in August.

How many games are in a WNBA season?

In 2026, 44 for each of 15 teams: 331 regular-season games with the Commissioner’s Cup final.

Past games

  1. Wings at Valkyries · 2 OctMy number is Golden State by 4.0 and the market has the Valkyries by 7.5.
  2. Fever at Aces · 1 OctMy number is Indiana by 0.15 and the market has the Aces by 4.5.
  3. Dream at Mystics · 30 SepMy number is Atlanta by 0.8 and the market has the Dream by 3.5.
  4. Valkyries at Wings · 30 SepMy number is Golden State by 1.4 and the market has the Valkyries by 3.5.
  5. Aces at Fever · 29 SepIndiana wins its home games against winning teams by 3.4 points; Las Vegas loses its road games against them by 6.1.
  6. Lynx at Liberty · 29 SepMy number has Minnesota by 0.3 and the market has the Lynx by 2.5.
  7. Fever at Aces · 27 SepMy number makes this a coin flip: Indiana by 0.15.
  8. Liberty at Lynx · 27 SepMinnesota is 8-4 at home against winning teams and wins those games by 5.6 points on average.
  9. Mystics at Dream · 27 SepAtlanta is 4-5 at home against winning teams but wins those games by 3.1 points on average.
  10. Wings at Valkyries · 27 SepGolden State is 7-4 at home against winning teams and wins those games by 1.3 points on average, while Dallas loses its equivalent road games by 6.7.
Show all 24 past predictions
  1. Aces at Mercury · 24 SepLas Vegas is 11-1 on the road against losing teams.
  2. Fever at Lynx · 24 SepIn Minneapolis the numbers turn toward Minnesota.
  3. Sky at Mystics · 24 SepChicago is 2-10 on the road against winning teams.
  4. Tempo at Sun · 24 SepConnecticut is 6-2 at home against losing teams.
  5. Valkyries at Sparks · 24 SepLos Angeles is 3-9 at home against winning teams.
  6. Dream at Liberty · 23 SepThe second of two games in Brooklyn in three days.
  7. Wings at Storm · 23 SepNo bet: the line posted at Dallas -9.5, and this page said before it posted that anything from -5 out was a pass.
  8. Lynx at Fever · 22 SepThis game is a coin flip and Indiana is getting points.
  9. Sparks at Aces · 22 SepLas Vegas should win by about ten, and the price asks for 15.5.
  10. Sun at Mystics · 22 SepWashington should win by about 14, and the price already says 14.5.
  11. Tempo at Sky · 22 SepMy number is Chicago by 6.4 and the price is Chicago -6.5.
  12. Valkyries at Fire · 22 SepGolden State should win, by about eight, and the price asks for 12.5.
  13. Dream at Liberty · 21 SepAgainst winning teams, New York is better at home than Atlanta is on the road.
  14. Wings at Mercury · 21 SepPhoenix is 1-8 at home against winning teams.