We’re back at it, football fans. Week 4 kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 25 with the Seattle Seahawks at the Arizona Cardinals, then rolls into a full Sunday slate and a two-game Monday Night Football docket.

If you’re already lining up your NFL bets, planning ahead beats chasing after kickoff. Don’t sleep on early NFL odds and our weekly NFL picks, because markets move.

Alright, let’s lock in a schedule and then fire picks on every game, start to finish.

NFL Week 4 Schedule

NFL Week 4 Odds

The first thing you notice when inspecting the NFL odds for week 4 is undeniably the Buffalo Bills being a massive 13.5 point favorite.

Buffalo has the largest spread of the week. They are obviously very likely to win and probably the safest straight up pick of the week, but NFL bettors might not be able to ignore the NFL week 4 moneyline for the Saints. The Bills are not alone as huge week 4 betting favorites, though, as the Lions are favored by 9.5 points at home versus the lowly Browns.

Of course, the rest of week 4 isn’t quite as one-sided. A whopping 11 games have a spread of 4.5 or tighter, making this an entertaining and potentially unpredictable week of NFL betting action.

NFL week 4 spreads might be tough to figure out, but I think we’re in for some fireworks across the board. That should mean for some fun NFL week 4 totals betting, while we can probably bet more confidently on some of our favorite NFL underdog picks.

The NFL week 4 lines look pretty good across the board, making this a fun week to place some  bets at your favorite sports betting sites. I’ll walk you through the pricing and matchup history before handing out game predictions, but if you want even more help, be sure to take advantage of the best handicappers the internet has to offer.

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NFL Week 4 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the full slate of NFL Week 4 matchups and make our NFL picks for each game.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

Seattle rolls into Thursday night looking far sharper than they did in Week 1, and last week’s 44–13 demolition of the Saints was the best evidence yet that the defense is rounding into a bully. Even with a modest 87 rushing yards on 33 attempts, the Seahawks controlled the game with field position, explosive passing (Sam Darnold went 14/18 for 218 yards with two TDs), and splash plays after the catch—Jaxon Smith-Njigba led with 5/96/1 and a 45-yard long.

That’s the exact profile you want facing an Arizona secondary that’s struggled to cap explosives and has leaned on bend-don’t-break in the red zone.

Arizona, meanwhile, comes off a bruising 16–15 loss at San Francisco, where the offense never found rhythm. Kyler Murray finished 22/35 for 159 yards with a pick, and the passing tree was shallow (no Cardinal topped 50 receiving yards; Trey McBride’s 5/43 led in catches). The run game was serviceable in small bites—Trey Benson (10/42) and Murray’s scrambles (10/27)—but negative plays and short drives kept them stuck in neutral.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because Arizona’s margin is razor-thin when they aren’t generating explosives or short fields. Arizona’s leading rusher from last season – James Conner – was also lost for the season last week with a nasty ankle injury.

Trench play is the swing factor. Seattle’s front just held New Orleans to 2.9 yards per carry on 27 rushes and lived in advantageous down-and-distance the entire afternoon. If that carries over, the Seahawks can crowd the quick-game throws Murray relies on and force him to work outside structure – where Seattle’s team speed closes windows.

Offensively, Seattle doesn’t need a dominant ground day; they need the threat of it to hold linebackers while JSN and Cooper Kupp win one-on-ones against off coverage.

Situationally, this also sets up for Seattle. Special teams and hidden yards tilted their last game (short fields, momentum, and free points), and Arizona’s recent scoring profile puts a lot of pressure on the Cards’ defense to be perfect. In a coin-flip spread with the better defense and more reliable explosives, Seattle earns the lean.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Predictions

Seahawks -1.5 (-105). You’re paying a cheap price for the better all-around roster and a defense that just suffocated New Orleans to 228 passing yards on 5.3 YPA. Arizona must string 10-play drives together to keep pace; that’s tough when Seattle is tackling clean and winning first down.

Under 43.5 (-115). The Saints managed only 13 points despite decent volume, and Arizona just posted 15 at San Francisco with no receiver over 50 yards. If Seattle controls tempo and forces Arizona into methodical drives, possessions shrink. A 23–17 / 24–16 script shows up often.

Seahawks ML (-122). Even if this turns into a late-game coin flip, Seattle owns more paths: explosives to JSN, a pass rush that can finish, and better special teams. With Murray’s box score last week (159 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) and a ground game capped at chunk-light efficiency, Seattle is the side.

Bet: Seahawks (-122), Seahawks -1.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-115)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

The Minnesota Vikings are fresh off a 48–10 blowout of the Bengals, and the box score shows why the market has them favored again. Carson Wentz went 14/20 for 173 yards with three touchdowns, delivering an efficient 8.7 yards per attempt and spreading the ball around to multiple playmakers. Justin Jefferson dominated as usual with 5/75/1, while T.J. Hockenson (5/49/1) and Jalen Nailor (3/37/1) provided complementary scores.

Add in a backfield that churned out 169 rushing yards—Jordan Mason’s 16/116 being the headliner—and you’ve got a balanced offense that overwhelmed Cincinnati in every phase. Minnesota also recorded a couple of defensive TDs in an amazing all-around effort.

The run game was the real tone-setter. Minnesota ripped off 5.5 yards per carry, with Mason hitting chunk gains (24-yard long) and Xavier Scott adding 8/30 with another explosive. That production allowed the Vikings to dictate pace, stay ahead of schedule, and keep Wentz in comfortable down-and-distance spots. When a defense has to respect both the run and Jefferson’s vertical threat, the passing lanes open up everywhere else.

Defensively, the Vikings were just as dominant. They held Cincinnati’s quarterbacks to 118 yards on 29 attempts (4.1 YPA) and smothered a run game that finished with only 53 yards. The pass rush generated four sacks, and Minnesota’s tackling was sharp across the board. Cincinnati never got above 10 points despite 56 offensive snaps, a testament to how well this unit played at every level.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, come off a 21–14 win at New England where the defense carried them again. Aaron Rodgers threw for just 139 yards on 6.0 YPA, with his longest completion going for 21. The rushing attack was plodding – Jaylen Warren had 18 carries for 47 yards (2.6 YPC) – and outside of a few chain-movers from Calvin Austin (3/34) and Warren (5/34), the offense rarely threatened. The Steelers benefitted from favorable field position and turnovers, but their offensive ceiling remains capped.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

Vikings -2.5 (-118). The Steelers’ defensive front can slow Mason and the Vikings’ run game, but Pittsburgh’s own offense doesn’t have the firepower to match possessions. Rodgers averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt, and Warren’s inefficiency underscores the lack of explosiveness. Minnesota’s balance and Jefferson’s inevitability tilt this matchup.

Under 41.5 (-112). Pittsburgh games naturally lean under thanks to their offensive limitations. They managed only 21 points last week despite multiple short fields, and Minnesota may not need more than the mid-20s to put this away. With both defenses capable in the red zone, long drives ending in threes instead of sevens are likely.

Vikings ML (-155). Minnesota’s performance against Cincinnati showed a roster firing on all cylinders—efficient QB play, a dominant rushing attack, and Jefferson making splash plays. Against a Steelers team averaging 2.5 yards per rush and reliant on defense to create opportunities, the Vikings are positioned to control game flow and secure the outright win.

Bet: Vikings (-155), Vikings -2.5 (-118), Under 41.5 (-112)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants Odds

The LA Chargers survived Denver last week on a last-second field goal by Cameron Dicker, moving to 3-0 with all three wins coming against AFC West rivals. Justin Herbert’s line (28/47 for 270 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t dominant, but he kept the offense moving despite inconsistent protection and a run game that averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Rookie back Omarion Hampton handled 19 carries for 70 yards, and with Najee Harris now out for the season, he’s expected to shoulder even more of the load going forward. That puts a lot of stress on the rookie, but the volume is there.

The passing game remains the team’s engine. Quentin Johnston (6/89) flashed with a 37-yard long, while Keenan Allen (7/65) continued to be the steady chain-mover Herbert leans on. Depth options like Hampton (6/59) and Ladd McConkey (5/41) stepped up as well, which gives the Chargers multiple looks against a Giants secondary that’s been beaten repeatedly downfield. Los Angeles racked up 300 total receiving yards and averaged over 10 yards per catch in the win.

The New York Giants‘ story is a transition at quarterback. Russell Wilson struggled across three starts and was benched in favor of rookie Jaxson Dart, who completed 1/3 passes for 3 yards in mop-up duty against Kansas City. Brian Daboll announced Dart will start the rest of the season, and his dual-threat background offers a new dimension to the offense. The problem: he’s stepping into a system that produced just 160 passing yards against the Chiefs and has averaged fewer than 14 points per game so far.

The Giants’ run game leans on committee work, and injuries are piling up. Tyrone Tracy is out, leaving Cam Skattebo (6/61) as the lead option after a decent showing last week. Wan’Dale Robinson (1/26) showed he can generate a chunk, but otherwise the passing tree lacked explosiveness. Against a Los Angeles defense that forced Mahomes into an interception and held the Broncos to 5.6 yards per pass attempt a week earlier, it’s a tough draw for Dart in his first start.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants Predictions

Chargers -6 (-110). This spread reflects the gap in quarterback situations. Herbert can consistently get to 250+ yards with multiple receivers producing, while New York is rolling out a rookie making his first start in a system that hasn’t generated much of anything. Even if Dart provides a spark, Los Angeles’ balance and depth of weapons outweigh it.

Under 43.5 (-105). Los Angeles hasn’t topped 23 points in any of its three wins, and they tend to play close, lower-possession games. New York’s offense doesn’t inspire confidence in pushing this total over, particularly with a rookie QB debuting against a defense that has kept every opponent under 24 points.

Chargers ML (-278). If the spread feels a touch rich, the moneyline is a safer angle for parlays. Los Angeles has shown they can grind out close divisional wins, and with Herbert spreading targets across Johnston, Allen, and McConkey, they have enough steady offense to outlast a Giants team with questions across the board.

Bet: Chargers (-278), Chargers -6 (-110), Under 43.5 (-105)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles escaped the Rams 33–26 thanks to a blocked field goal that turned into the game-winning return TD in the final seconds. Beyond the splash play, the offense was efficient: Jalen Hurts went 21/32 for 226 yards and three touchdowns (7.1 YPA), while the receiving duo of A.J. Brown (6/109) and DeVonta Smith (8/60) consistently separated on in-breakers and posts.

Dallas Goedert chipped in a 33-yard strike, giving the passing game three different answers on money downs. The only eyebrow-raiser was the rushing output—27 carries for 86 yards (3.2 YPC), with Saquon Barkley at 18/46—so the Eagles leaned on timing routes and red-zone execution instead.

Los Angeles did dent the Eagles on the ground (31 rushes for 155 yards, 5.0 YPC) behind Kyren Williams, but Philadelphia stiffened in key spots and won the explosives battle with those Brown/Smith haymakers. That’s relevant against a Tampa Bay defense that just surrendered 233 passing yards at 12.3 yards per catch to the Jets, including 10 catches to Garrett Wilson. If the Bucs are forced to play off and rally, Hurts can live in the intermediate windows to Brown and Smith again.

The Tampa Bay Bucs beat the Jets 29–27 on a walk-off field goal, but the offense was choppy snap-to-snap. Baker Mayfield finished 19/29 for 233 yards with a couple of big gains, yet the run game was mostly stuffed: Bucky Irving needed 25 attempts for 66 yards (2.6 YPC), and Rachaad White added 12 on five carries.

With Mike Evans now sidelined for a few weeks and Chris Godwin also out, Emeka Egbuka (6/85/1) becomes the lead option, with Sterling Shepard (4/80) the next man up. That’s workable, but it removes the gravitational pull Evans brings to the perimeter.

Given those injuries, Tampa Bay likely has to manufacture explosives through play-action and quarterback movement rather than bullying on the ground. That’s a tough needle to thread if Philadelphia’s front (Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and friends) wins early downs and forces longer third-and-8s. Add in Philadelphia’s ability to score in bunches through Brown/Smith and you have a script that tilts toward the road favorite even in a hostile spot.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Eagles -3.5 (-105): Hurts just posted 226 yards and three scores while his top two wideouts combined for 14 catches and 169 yards. The Bucs, meanwhile, are down their two most proven receivers and just slogged to 2.6 YPC on 34 team rushes. If Philadelphia forces Tampa into pass-first mode, the Eagles’ passing efficiency should create the separation needed to clear a field goal.

Over 44.5 (-105): Recent game flow points to volatility. Philadelphia can stack touchdowns in short bursts (three TD passes last week), and Tampa still produced 29 points with Egbuka/Shepard stepping up and Mayfield adding 44 rushing yards on four scrambles. Even if the Bucs are less consistent, a few chunk plays plus Philly’s red-zone finishing push this into the high-40s often enough.

Eagles (-205): Special teams bailed them out against Los Angeles, but the underlying edges—quarterback efficiency, two high-end separators outside, and more ways to score—remain intact. With Tampa reshuffling the receiver room and struggling to run, Philadelphia owns more paths to the win condition.

Bet: Eagles (-205), Eagles -3.5 (-105), Over 44.5 (-105)

New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

The number is massive for a reason. The New Orleans Saints were overwhelmed in Seattle, falling 44–13 while averaging just 2.9 yards per rush (79 yards on 27 attempts). Spencer Rattler completed 28 of 39 but for only 5.6 yards per attempt with two interceptions, and most of the production came underneath to Chris Olave (10/57) and Juwan Johnson (6/81). That profile—short throws, limited run game, negative plays—doesn’t travel well to Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, handled Miami 31–21 with a clean, balanced script. Josh Allen tossed three touchdowns at 7.6 yards per attempt and the Bills ran it 27 times for 157 yards, paced by James Cook’s 19/108 (5.7 YPC). The passing game spread it around to Dalton Kincaid (5/66) and Khalil Shakir (4/45), and Buffalo rarely put itself behind the sticks. That’s the exact shape you want as a giant favorite: steady drives, red-zone finishing, and enough ground success to salt the clock.

On the other side, Buffalo’s defense limited Miami to 21 points and 4.3 yards per attempt, with back-seven tackling led by Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard. If the Bills squeeze early-down runs again, Rattler will be forced to throw into tighter windows where the Bills’ underneath defenders rally and make tackles. New Orleans needed explosives in Seattle and didn’t find them—the longest reception belonged to Johnson at 25.

Special teams and hidden yards can swing big spreads; they did in Philly’s win over the Rams, but the Saints didn’t show those edges last week (one turnover, little field-position leverage). When you’re catching more than two touchdowns, you either need chunk plays or short fields. Recent form suggests neither is reliable for New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Bills -15.5 (-112). New Orleans just posted 13 points with 2.9 YPC and 5.6 YPA, while Buffalo paired 5.7 YPC from James Cook with three Allen TDs. If the Bills get to the mid-20s by the third quarter, the Saints’ dink-and-dunk profile struggles to keep pace and the cover probability climbs as Buffalo leans on the run.

Under 47.5 (-105). The blowout script often caps possessions late: Buffalo can ride Cook to drain clock, and the Bills’ defense has been sound in space (Miami managed 203 passing yards on 22 attempts). New Orleans’ best passing outputs last week were short and intermediate; without explosives, finishing drives is hard. Scores like 31–13 or 34–10 show up frequently.

Bills (-1450). As one of the largest spreads in recent memory, the straight-up side reflects real matchup gaps: a balanced, efficient Buffalo offense, plus a defense that just muted Miami’s speed, against a Saints unit that couldn’t run in Seattle and turned it over twice. Pair the ML in parlays or anchor teasers if you prefer less variance than the large spread.

Bet: Bills (-1450), Bills -15.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-105)

Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Odds

The Cleveland Browns are riding high after a 13–10 upset of Green Bay on a game-winning field goal. It wasn’t pretty, but it was very on-brand: defense, field position, and just enough rushing. Joe Flacco completed 21 of 36 for 142 yards at 3.9 YPA with two interceptions, so the Browns leaned on the ground game and short throws. They also tackled well and forced the Packers into an inefficient rushing day, which kept the total down and the script in Cleveland’s comfort zone.

The Browns’ offensive identity runs through Quinshon Judkins. He handled 18 carries for 94 yards (5.2 YPC) with a long of 38, and his success rate on early downs set up manageable situations. In the pass game, David Njoku (5/40) was the chain-mover, with Cedric Tillman (3/26) and Harold Fannin Jr. (3/25) filling in as complementary targets. If Cleveland is going to hang around as a big dog, it likely looks like that: Judkins chewing clock and Njoku keeping the sticks alive while the defense keeps things in front.

The Detroit Lions went into Baltimore on Monday night and pulled its own upset, 38–30. Jared Goff was ruthlessly efficient (20/28, 202 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), and the backfield did the heavy lifting: David Montgomery erupted for 151 yards on just 12 carries (12.6 YPC) with two scores, while Jahmyr Gibbs added steady production and receiving work (15 rushes, 67 yards; 5/32 as a receiver). That balance opened windows for Amon-Ra St. Brown (7/77), Sam LaPorta (4/33/1), and Jameson Williams (2/43) to punish single coverage.

The matchup stress for Cleveland is obvious: Detroit’s offensive line and downhill run game just bulldozed for 224 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and finished drives. If the Lions again win first down, Goff can live in rhythm throws to St. Brown/LaPorta while the backs salt away possessions. Cleveland’s path is to re-create last week—limit explosives, let Judkins keep the defense fresh, and find timely completions to Njoku. If Flacco has to chase, the Browns’ turnover risk rises.

Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

Lions -9.5 (-108). Detroit’s recent form is a bad draw for a Browns offense that leaned on 3.9 YPA and two interceptions last week. The Lions just posted 38 on the road with 72 rushing yards worth of explosives on a single Montgomery carry, and they have multiple finishing avenues (backs plus red-zone targets to LaPorta). If Detroit forces Cleveland off schedule and away from Judkins, the margin can widen after halftime.

Under 44.5 (-118). Cleveland totals trend lower when the Browns control pace via the run and defense—Green Bay managed only 10 points while rushing for 81 yards on 31 attempts (2.6 YPC). Even with Detroit’s firepower, a script where the Lions play from ahead and lean on Montgomery/Gibbs compresses possessions. Scores like 27–13 or 27–16 land often enough.

Lions ML (-440). The moneyline ties together Detroit’s edges at quarterback efficiency (Goff 20/28, 2 TD, 0 INT), run-game dominance (224 rushing yards), and diversified pass options. Cleveland just won with a razor-thin margin requiring a late kick; asking for a repeat against this Lions offense is a big step up.

Bet: Lions (-440), Lions -9.5 (-108), Under 44.5 (-118)

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

The Washington Commanders are coming off their most complete offensive showing of the season, hanging 41 points on the Raiders in Week 3 behind an efficient Marcus Mariota performance. Washington ran for over 200 yards as a team, with Jeremy McNichols breaking free for a 60-yard touchdown and Mariota adding both arm and legs to the mix.

That kind of balance is exactly what this team was missing in Weeks 1 and 2, and it raises the question of whether Jayden Daniels could be back under center this week. If he is, the offense may gain even more upside — though Mariota showed he can still deliver when needed.

The Atlanta Falcons, on the other hand, was embarrassed in Carolina, shut out 30-0 in a game where neither Michael Penix Jr. nor Kirk Cousins could generate much rhythm. The Falcons mustered just 131 rushing yards on 23 carries, and while Drake London and Kyle Pitts saw decent volume in the passing game, turnovers and inefficiency killed drives. Penix in particular looked rattled behind shaky protection, throwing two picks and struggling to push the ball downfield. If Cousins takes over full-time again, it might stabilize things — but there’s no denying Atlanta’s offense has sputtered badly.

Defensively, the Commanders showed better discipline in coverage last week, limiting Las Vegas’ weapons to short gains outside of a few chunk plays to Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. Bobby Wagner led a physical front that contained the run and forced the Raiders to chase the game from behind. If Washington brings that same energy against Atlanta, it’s hard to see the Falcons moving the ball consistently, especially if they fall behind early.

The Falcons’ defense had little answer for Bryce Young and the Panthers’ balanced attack, allowing 30 points without forcing a turnover. They were gashed on the ground by Chuba Hubbard and gave up explosive plays in the passing game to Tez McMillan and Tommy Tremble. Against a Commanders team that just found its offensive groove, this looks like a concerning matchup.

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

Falcons +1.5 (-115). Atlanta is coming off a brutal shutout loss to Carolina, but that spot looks more like a wake-up call than a trend. Bijan Robinson still averaged 7.2 yards per carry and Drake London created chunk plays even in limited opportunities. Washington’s defense allowed 289 passing yards to Geno Smith last week, and if Penix gets time, those explosive plays should return. With or without Jayden Daniels under center, Washington is unlikely to keep pace in Atlanta.

Under 44.5 (-105). Washington exploded for 41 points against the Raiders, but that game felt like an outlier. The Commanders’ offense has been inconsistent, and Atlanta’s defense has held two of three opponents under 17 points this season. If the Falcons lean on Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to control tempo, expect longer drives and fewer overall possessions. Both defenses are capable of red-zone stops, which should keep this game from climbing too high.

Falcons ML (+110). The moneyline is a safer angle if you’re worried about a close finish, but it still comes back to Atlanta’s defense and home-field advantage. Washington is traveling off an emotional win, and this feels like a letdown spot. The Falcons are the more stable side in the trenches and should rebound from last week’s dud.

Bet: Falcons ML (+110), Falcons +1.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Odds

The Houston Texans enter Week 4 still searching for their first win, and the schedule isn’t doing them any favors. C.J. Stroud threw for 204 yards with two interceptions in Jacksonville, and Houston’s offense continues to sputter. The Texans averaged just 4.6 yards per play against the Jaguars and couldn’t get their run game going, with Nick Chubb limited to 38 yards on nine carries. Stroud has shown flashes, but Houston’s line gave up 20 quarterback hits in Week 3, and those protection issues remain the biggest obstacle to sustaining drives.

The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, are coming off a 41-20 home loss to the Colts where Daniel Jones picked apart the secondary and Jonathan Taylor gashed them for 102 yards. Still, the Titans have been competitive in every game this season and were undone by poor tackling and blown coverages more than anything else. Cam Ward threw for 219 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but Tennessee’s offense never found a rhythm outside of some short-field chances.

The Titans’ formula is still clear: lean on Tony Pollard to establish the run, mix in Julius Chestnut’s physicality, and keep Ward out of obvious passing downs. Against Indianapolis, Pollard was held to 45 yards on 16 carries, but Houston’s front doesn’t pose nearly the same challenge. The Texans allowed Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten to combine for 77 yards on the ground last week and surrendered chunk gains in critical moments. Tennessee should be able to use its backs to control tempo and shorten the game.

On the other side, Houston needs more from its pass catchers if it’s going to threaten Tennessee. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz both cleared 50 yards in Jacksonville, but Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. got loose repeatedly against Houston’s corners. If Stroud is again under constant pressure, the Texans may be forced into short passes and checkdowns, which plays right into the Titans’ defensive strengths. With the game in Nashville and the Texans struggling to generate explosive plays, the matchup tilts toward the home side.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Predictions

Titans +7 (-105). Backing Tennessee with the points feels safer than trusting Houston to cover as a full touchdown favorite. The Texans have scored just 37 total points this season, and their offensive line issues make it hard to trust them in a blowout script. Even if the Titans lose, their defense and run game are steady enough to keep things within striking distance.

Under 38.5 (-110). Both offenses lean toward slower, run-heavy approaches, and neither has shown consistent finishing ability. Houston has yet to crack 21 points in a game, and Tennessee continues to plod along with Pollard and short passing. With both defenses capable of red-zone stops, this projects as a grind-it-out, low-scoring divisional battle.

Texans ML (-395). If you want the safer angle, Houston on the moneyline is the play. The Texans are at home, and despite their early-season struggles, they still have the more talented quarterback in Stroud and a defense that should bounce back against Tennessee’s limited passing attack. The price is steep, but it reflects Houston’s position as the better overall roster.

Bet: Texans ML (-395), Under 38.5 (-110), Titans +7 (-105)

Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots Odds

The Carolina Panthers enter Week 4 fresh off a 30–0 blowout win over the Falcons, but that result comes with plenty of caution. Bryce Young didn’t throw a touchdown, finished with just 121 yards, and Carolina was actually outgained in total yardage. Even with the defense pitching a shutout, the offensive ceiling remains capped. Losing tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders to a high-ankle injury only weakens Young’s limited supporting cast.

The New England Patriots return home after a frustrating 21–14 loss to the Steelers. Drake Maye had moments in that game, but turnovers sealed their fate. Still, the Patriots’ defense showed toughness, limiting Pittsburgh’s ground game while forcing Aaron Rodgers into short throws. That profile is tailor-made for a matchup against a Carolina offense that doesn’t generate explosive plays.

The Patriots’ run defense is especially critical here. Carolina leans on Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, but New England has allowed only two rushing touchdowns through three games. If the Pats hold up inside the tackles, it forces Young into obvious passing situations, where he’s already been intercepted three times this season. Bill Belichick’s system thrives on disguising coverages to confuse young quarterbacks.

Ultimately, this comes down to which team can finish drives. Carolina has averaged just 20.7 points per game despite their Week 3 outburst, and New England has the stronger red-zone efficiency when Maye protects the football. Backed by home-field advantage and a deeper defensive unit, the Patriots are better equipped to grind out a victory.

Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots Predictions

Patriots -5.5 (-110). The Patriots’ defense should dictate the game script, forcing Carolina into stalled drives. As long as Maye limits turnovers, New England has enough offense to cover this spread.

Under 43.5 (-118). Both offenses lean conservative, and Carolina’s passing attack doesn’t have the juice to open this up. Expect a slow-paced, defense-first game with points at a premium.

Patriots ML (-230). If you’re wary of laying the points, the moneyline still offers value. New England’s balance on both sides of the ball makes them the safer bet in Foxborough.

Bet: Patriots ML (-230), Patriots -5.5 (-110), Under 43.5 (-118)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

The LA Rams are coming off a gut-punch. The Rams built a big lead on Philadelphia, only to watch it evaporate before a potential game-winning field goal was blocked and returned the other way. Even in defeat, the offense still moved it: Matthew Stafford threw for 196 yards, Puka Nacua stacked 11 catches for 112 yards, and Kyren Williams churned out 94 rushing yards on 20 attempts. The problem wasn’t yards; it was late-game execution and turnovers (two Stafford interceptions) that flipped the script.

The Indianapolis Colts arrive hot after hammering Tennessee 41–20. Daniel Jones was efficient and on time (18/25, 228 yards, 2 TD), distributing to Michael Pittman Jr. (6/73) and Alec Pierce (4/67) while Jonathan Taylor ripped explosive runs (17/102 with a 46-yard long). Indy’s balance let them dictate tempo and kept the defense fresh; the Titans managed only 3.7 yards per carry and were stuck chasing all afternoon.

This matchup turns on protection and early downs. When the Rams stay ahead of schedule with Williams and quick hitters to Nacua and Davante Adams (3/56), Stafford can avoid the tight-window throws that led to picks against Philly. Conversely, the Colts’ play-action game is humming because Taylor is forcing safeties to honor downhill runs, opening crossers for Pittman and Pierce. If LA can muddy first downs, Jones faces longer third-and-longs where the pass rush can actually get home.

Special teams/late-game execution loom large after last week’s ending. The Rams’ coverage units and kick protection have to be cleaner, but they still own a home-field environment and a passing game that rarely goes dark for four quarters. Indy’s ceiling is real when Taylor is popping explosives, yet the defense hasn’t faced a target monster like Nacua working this volume on scripted in-breakers. Expect swings both ways and a game that lives in the fourth quarter.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams Predictions

Colts +3 (-102). Indy’s balance is travel-ready: Taylor just averaged 6.0 per carry and Jones posted 9.1 YPA without forcing throws. The Rams gave up 226 passing yards and three TDs to the Eagles and have been vulnerable when opponents stay on schedule. With Pittman/Pierce winning underneath and Taylor stressing the second level, the Colts have multiple paths to keep this inside a field goal (and a live shot to steal it).

Over 49.5 (-112). Recent form says fireworks. LA just played a 59-point game with 356 combined passing yards from the starters, and the Colts hung 41 while averaging 7.1 yards per pass. Both teams feature explosive RBs (Williams, Taylor) plus high-volume WR1s (Nacua, Pittman), and neither defense consistently closed drives last week. A back-and-forth script into the high 40s/low 50s is the most common outcome.

Rams ML (-175). If you want the lower-variance route, Los Angeles to win is the safer side at home. Even after the collapse, the Rams still created chunk gains on the ground and through Nacua, and a cleaner turnover column likely flips last week’s result. Stafford at home with multiple explosive outlets is enough to edge a surging Colts team in a one-score finish.

Bet: Rams ML (-175), Colts +3 (-102), Over 49.5 (-112)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Lamar Jackson completed 21 of 27 for 288 yards (10.7 YPA) with three touchdowns and no picks, and the Baltimore Ravens stacked explosives all over the field—Mark Andrews (6/91/1), Rashod Bateman (5/63/1), and a 34-yard shot to Devontae Walker. Even with the defeat, that kind of passing efficiency is exactly what you want heading into a track meet with Kansas City.

The concern is run defense after the Lions ripped 224 rushing yards (12.6 per carry for David Montgomery and 67 more from Jahmyr Gibbs). The good news for Baltimore: the Chiefs haven’t punished anyone on the ground the same way; they managed 105 rushing yards in New York with Isiah Pacheco at 4.5 per carry and the rest more modest. That sets up a plan where Baltimore can lean coverage toward Travis Kelce and rally on early-down runs without living in light boxes.

The Kansas City Chiefs took care of business 22–9 against the Giants, but the box score was more workmanlike than explosive. Patrick Mahomes threw for 224 yards (one TD, one INT) at 6.1 YPA, and the chunk plays mostly came on selective shots to Tyquan Thornton (5/71 with a 33-yarder) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (4/55). The Chiefs still have answers—Kelce and Hollywood Brown among them—but this version has been grinding, not racing, to points.

This Baltimore offense profiles as the more volatile unit in a good way. Jackson’s 10.7 YPA last week paired with Derrick Henry’s physicality (12 rushes for 50 yards) forces defenses to declare their poison, and Baltimore’s perimeter group is deeper than it’s been, with Andrews as the matchup hammer. If the Ravens clean up their tackling and keep Kansas City behind the sticks, home-field and playmaking at quarterback can swing the late-game possessions.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Ravens -2.5 (-120). Baltimore just posted 288 passing yards on 27 attempts with three scores and no turnovers, and the Chiefs’ most recent outing featured 22 points and a modest 6.1 YPA from Mahomes. With Andrews winning between the numbers and Jackson creating explosives, the Ravens have more reliable paths to separation than a Kansas City offense that’s been methodical.

Over 48.5 (-115). Even when Kansas City grinds, the Ravens’ offense can pull games into the high 20s. Jackson’s efficiency plus red-zone finishers (Andrews, Bateman) raise Baltimore’s floor, and the Chiefs still have enough pass-game answers—Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Thornton, Hollywood Brown—to trade scores. A 27–24 or 30–24 result hits often.

Ravens ML (-148). If you want the safer angle, back Baltimore to win at home. The Ravens bring the better recent downfield efficiency and a quarterback coming off a near-perfect day, while Kansas City’s offense has leaned on incremental drives. With crowd juice and cleaner situational defense, the home side is the play.

Bet: Ravens ML (-148), Ravens -2.5 (-120), Over 48.5 (-115)

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

The Chicago Bears just posted their most convincing effort of the season, beating Dallas 31–14 with a sharp day from Caleb Williams (19/28, 298 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT). The passing game finally looked layered: Luther Burden III hit explosives (3/101/1 with a 65-yard long), Rome Odunze worked the intermediate windows (3/62), and Colston Loveland and D’Andre Swift each found the end zone. The run game didn’t pop (87 team rushing yards), but the Bears didn’t need it with Williams controlling tempo and distributing cleanly.

The Las Vegas Raiders come in off a 41–24 loss at Washington that exposed defensive issues at every level. The Raiders allowed 201 rushing yards and got hit by explosives (a 60-yard TD run; four plays of 40+), which kept their own offense in chase mode. Geno Smith’s line (19/29, 289 yards, 3 TD) shows the passing game can generate chunk gains—Tre Tucker (8/145 with a 61-yarder) and Jakobi Meyers (3/63) were problems—but the ground game stalled at 93 yards on 28 tries.

This matchup tilts toward Chicago’s receivers against a Vegas secondary that just surrendered 207 receiving yards to Washington’s top two options alone (Terry McLaurin 3/74; Luke McCaffrey 3/56). If the Raiders roll safety help to Burden’s side after last week’s bombs, Williams can keep targeting Odunze and Swift underneath, where Dallas couldn’t get stops. The Bears also tackled well against the Cowboys and limited explosives after halftime.

For the Raiders to flip it, they need Ashton Jeanty and Zamir White to keep them ahead of the sticks and let play-action unlock Tucker over the top. That’s doable, but Chicago’s front just logged seven QB hits with Tremaine Edmunds and Kevin Byard active on the second level. If Vegas again bleeds rushing yards on defense and can’t get Williams off schedule, Chicago’s efficiency should hold.

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Predictions

Bears -1.5 (+100). Williams is coming off 298 yards and four scores with zero turnovers, and the Bears’ WR trio created separation all afternoon. Las Vegas just allowed 41 while giving up 6.3 yards per rush, and if the defense has to commit extra bodies to the run, Burden and Odunze can win outside. A short number at home backs Chicago’s cleaner offensive form.

Over 47.5 (-115). Recent tape points to points. The Bears dropped 31 on Dallas behind explosives, and the Raiders still produced 289 passing yards with Tucker and Meyers threatening deep. With both teams better through the air than on the ground, possessions should be efficient enough to push this toward the low-50s.

Bears ML (-110). If you prefer less variance than the spread, the moneyline leans into Chicago’s advantages at quarterback play and perimeter weapons, plus a Raiders defense that just surrendered 201 rushing yards and multiple chunk plays. The Bears have more paths to a late lead and can close with situational stops.

Bet: Bears ML (-110), Bears -1.5 (+100), Over 47.5 (-115)

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Green Bay Packers return home after a defensive slugfest in Cleveland, where their offense did just enough but the defense carried the day. Jordan Love threw for 183 yards with one touchdown and one interception, spreading the ball around to Matthew Golden, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft.

Jacobs, meanwhile, continues to find his footing as the Packers’ feature back, grinding out 30 yards on 16 carries against the Browns’ elite front. Green Bay’s strength remains its defense, which limited Cleveland to just 13 points and bottled up the run. Now, they’ll welcome the Dallas Cowboys, who limp into Lambeau at 1–3 after a 31–14 loss to Chicago.

Dallas’ biggest issue is the likely absence of CeeDee Lamb, who left early against the Bears with an ankle injury. Without their top weapon, Dak Prescott leaned heavily on tight end Jake Ferguson (13/82/0) and George Pickens (5/68/0), but explosive plays were almost nonexistent.

The Cowboys did run the ball well with Javonte Williams (10/76), but a one-dimensional attack won’t cut it against a Green Bay defense stacked with playmakers like Quay Walker, Rashan Gary, and Isaiah McDuffie. Compounding matters, this will be Micah Parsons’ first game against Dallas since his stunning preseason trade to Green Bay—a move that reshaped both franchises. Parsons’ presence instantly boosts the Packers’ pass rush against his former teammates.

The Cowboys’ defense, which allowed nearly 300 passing yards to Caleb Williams last week, now faces a Green Bay offense that may not be explosive but is efficient and opportunistic. If Jacobs can establish the run, Love won’t be asked to do too much, and the Packers’ defense should handle the rest. Dallas will need big plays from KaVontae Turpin or Javonte Williams to stay competitive, but without Lamb, the ceiling of the passing game looks capped.

This matchup tilts toward Green Bay’s defensive front and the added motivation of Parsons facing his old squad. Unless Dallas can manufacture turnovers, the Packers’ balance on both sides of the ball gives them a clear path to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions

Packers -7 (-110). Green Bay’s defense is stout enough to overwhelm a Cowboys team missing Lamb. Parsons adds even more juice to the Packers’ pass rush, and Love should be efficient enough to back it up.

Under 47.5 (-115). Green Bay’s defense and Dallas’ limited offense point to a lower-scoring game. Expect the Packers to control tempo on the ground and force Prescott into short drives.

Packers ML -355. It’s a steep price, but Green Bay has the clear advantages at home, especially with Parsons on their side. The Cowboys are unlikely to generate enough offense to spring the upset.

Bet: Packers ML (-355), Packers -7 (-110), Under 47.5 (-115)

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

The New York Jets come in off a tight 29–27 loss at Tampa in which Tyrod Taylor kept them competitive: 26-for-36 for 197 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Garrett Wilson handled a true WR1 workload (10 catches, 84 yards), and the backs were active in the passing game with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen combining for 63 receiving yards. On the ground, New York managed 99 yards at 4.3 per carry, but stalled in the red zone and coughed up a costly turnover. Defensively, the Jets were dinged by short fields and a physical Bucs run game that punched in two scores.

The Miami Dolphins are back home after a 31–21 loss in Buffalo where the passing attack never found rhythm. Tua Tagovailoa went 22-for-34 for 146 yards with two interceptions, and while the run game produced (130 yards, led by De’Von Achane’s 62), the Dolphins were held to just one rushing TD and couldn’t consistently win downfield. Tyreek Hill (5/49) and Jaylen Waddle (5/39) moved the chains, but explosive shots were limited by pressure and sticky coverage.

This matchup tilts on whether Miami’s timing returns against a Jets defense that just allowed 233 passing yards on 8.0 YPA and two rushing scores to Tampa Bay’s backfield. If Achane again threatens edges early, Miami can lean into play-action to get Hill and Waddle working crossers and deep-overs where Tagovailoa is most comfortable. The Jets’ linebackers will be stressed by Miami’s motion and the backs’ involvement.

On the other side, Taylor’s decisiveness helps New York stay on schedule, and the quick game to Wilson can mitigate Miami’s rush. But the Dolphins’ defense just held the ball-control Bills to 203 passing yards with three sacks and tightened up in the red zone. If Miami limits explosives and forces third-and-longs, New York’s offense projects to trade field goals for touchdowns.

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Dolphins -3 (-102). Miami’s speed and home field should swing the high-leverage downs. With Achane setting a baseline on the ground and Hill/Waddle due for more YAC, the Dolphins have more reliable finishing power.

Over 44.5 (-105). The Jets have topped 20 in back-to-back games and Taylor takes the easy throws; Miami’s offense rebounds at home. Both passing games have enough playmakers to clear the mid-40s.

Dolphins ML (-148). If you prefer to avoid the spread, Miami’s overall talent edge and red-zone ceiling make the moneyline a solid anchor for parlays or singles.

Bet: Dolphins ML (-148), Dolphins -3 (-102), Over 44.5 (-105)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Odds

The Cincinnati Bengals just got trounced 48–10 in Minnesota, and the offense remains stuck in neutral. Jake Browning was under siege (three sacks) and went 19/27 for 140 yards with a touchdown and two picks, while the run game stumbled to just 53 yards on 21 carries.

The Bengals’ best hope continues to be Ja’Marr Chase (5/50), but with little protection and no ground support, every completion feels hard-earned. If they can’t open up explosives downfield, Cincinnati risks another game where they’re stuck trying to nickel-and-dime against a defense that can sit back and rally.

The Denver Broncos dropped to 1–2 after a 23–20 loss to the Chargers. Bo Nix finished 14/25 for 153 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and the Broncos leaned heavily on J.K. Dobbins (83 yards on 11 carries). Courtland Sutton delivered 118 yards on six catches, but Nix still looked limited when forced to play from behind.

Defensively, Denver kept things competitive, holding the Chargers to 106 rushing yards, but the pass rush didn’t fully close against Herbert in critical moments. At 1–2, Denver enters this matchup needing to reassert its identity as a run-first team that leans on Dobbins and situational throws from Nix.

This matchup tilts toward Denver’s trench strength. The Bengals have been toothless on the ground, making it easy for defenses to sit two-high and squeeze Browning into short throws. Against Minnesota, that approach limited them to 118 passing yards beyond checkdowns. Denver should be able to mimic that blueprint while feeding Dobbins to control tempo. Cincinnati’s defense has also shown vulnerability against physical backs, giving up 169 rushing yards to the Vikings last week. If Dobbins and RJ Harvey get rolling, the Broncos can dictate pace.

Still, Browning has weapons that could punish mistakes. Chase is always live for a splash play, and if Cincinnati steals an early lead, Denver doesn’t have the quick-strike passing game to play catch-up easily. But the more likely script is Denver leaning on its backs and Sutton while Cincinnati again fails to sustain drives.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Predictions

Broncos -7.5 (-105). Denver’s power run game and Sutton’s reliability are the clear matchup advantages. Against a Bengals defense fresh off a 6.2 YPC pounding, this spread looks justified.

Under 44.5 (-115). Both teams are built on grinding drives, and Cincinnati hasn’t topped 20 points since Week 1. Denver is unlikely to push pace, which points to a slog.

Broncos ML (-380). Pricey, but logical. The Bengals’ offense is struggling badly without Joe Burrow, and Denver at home with its run game is the far safer side.

Bet: Broncos ML (-380), Broncos -7.5 (-105), Under 44.5 (-115)

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

The following is our best bets for NFL Week 4:

• Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. Chiefs (-120)
• Chicago Bears -1.5 vs. Raiders (+100)
• Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Jets (-102)

The Ravens are at home in a statement spot against the defending champs, and Lamar Jackson has this offense humming. Baltimore’s defense just held Detroit to 10 points, and if they can disrupt Mahomes’ timing, this is the perfect chance to back the Ravens in front of their own crowd.

Chicago’s passing game finally clicked with Caleb Williams shredding Dallas for 298 yards and four touchdowns. The Bears’ WR duo of Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze creates matchup nightmares, while Vegas’ defense just gave up over 200 rushing yards to Washington. Chicago is the sharper side at home in a near pick’em.

The Jets may have to roll with Tyrod Taylor again if Justin Fields isn’t cleared from concussion protocol. Either way, Miami’s talent advantage is clear. With Tua, Hill, and Waddle, the Dolphins should bounce back after their slow start and win this AFC East matchup comfortably on the road.

If you follow our NFL best bets for Week 4 and put all three wagers into a parlay, then at the combined odds of +595, you would turn a $100 bet into about $695 total payout ($595 profit). Another option is to check out the best NFL parlays we piece together every week, should you be seeking a bit more upside.