Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and we’re starting to see which teams are legit and which are fading fast. Just two teams are on bye this week, but there’s still plenty of action for bettors to target across Sunday’s slate.

The week kicks off with an NFC East rivalry game as the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. These teams know each other well, and divisional games like this often come down to turnovers and red-zone execution.

Across the pond, in this week’s NFL International game, the Denver Broncos face the New York Jets in London early Sunday. Later, the Dallas Cowboys head to Carolina, while the LA Chargers and Miami Dolphins square off in what could be the highest-scoring matchup of the week.

Sunday Night Football features a potential Super Bowl preview between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Then, another Monday Night doubleheader wraps things up as the Buffalo Bills host the Atlanta Falcons, and the Washington Commanders take on the Chicago Bears.

Let’s jump into the full Week 6 schedule and odds, then make our early Week 6 NFL picks. Getting ahead of the market is how you find value, and this week’s board offers plenty of it.

2025 NFL Week 6 Schedule

NFL Week 6 Odds

This week’s NFL betting board is a fun mix of chalk and coin-flips. A couple of games sit near a touchdown, but most spreads fall in the 1.5–4.5 window, putting a premium on line shopping and late injury news. If you’re browsing early prices, start with the market’s largest favorites and then work down to the true toss-ups.

Totals are clustered in the mid-40s again, which opens doors for script-based plays instead of sides. If you prefer to hunt value dogs, our weekly rundown of NFL underdogs is a great place to start.

Total-watchers should eye 49ers vs. Buccaneers (48.5) and Bengals vs. Packers (48.5) as two of the highest projected scoring games. If you’re chasing the lowest, look no further than Broncos vs. Jets (42.5), which could be a puntfest across the pond.

Because so many games sit inside key numbers, it pays to compare prices across multiple online sportsbooks—check our curated list of the top [sports betting sites] to snag the best spread or total. And if you want sharper context before you fire, tap into breakdowns from the industry’s best handicappers for projections, matchup edges, and bet alerts.

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NFL Week 6 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the full slate of NFL Week 6 matchups and make our NFL picks for each game.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to bounce back after a frustrating 21–17 home loss to Denver, where they moved the ball well through the air but couldn’t convert in key spots. Jalen Hurts threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, but the offense sputtered on the ground, managing just 45 rushing yards as Denver’s front bottled up every inside run. The good news is that DeVonta Smith (8-114-1) looked sharp, and the Eagles still own one of the league’s most efficient red-zone defenses, which should play a major role in this divisional matchup.

New York enters at 1–4 and has been its own worst enemy all season. The Giants turned the ball over five times in their 26–14 loss at New Orleans, including a pair of interceptions from rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. While Dart continues to flash athleticism — adding 55 rushing yards on seven carries — he’s also been sacked 16 times through five games. That lack of pocket consistency has held back an offense that’s averaging just 14.4 points per game and ranks 30th in third-down conversion rate.

Saquon Barkley has quietly started to reestablish rhythm, catching three passes for 58 yards and a score against Denver. This week’s revenge angle against his former team adds intrigue, but the Giants’ offensive line continues to be a liability. Philadelphia’s pass rush, which hit the quarterback six times last week, should have no issue collapsing the pocket against a New York unit that ranks near the bottom of the league in adjusted sack rate. Expect heavy pressure to force Dart into checkdowns and early punts.

Defensively, both teams have held strong inside the 20. Philadelphia ranks third in opponent red-zone touchdown rate, while New York sits 11th. That sets the stage for another low-scoring divisional grind. The Eagles are deeper and more disciplined, and with a short week to prepare, their front seven and explosive perimeter weapons give them the edge to pull away late.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions

Eagles -7 (-120)
The Giants haven’t shown the ability to protect Dart or sustain drives, and that’s a bad recipe against one of the league’s most aggressive defensive fronts. Philadelphia should dominate possession and field position, setting up multiple short-field scores. Even if the offense isn’t explosive, the Eagles’ depth wins out over four quarters.

Under 40.5 (-105)
Both teams have struggled in the red zone, and the Giants’ limited passing attack keeps clock movement steady. Combine that with the Eagles’ methodical approach after last week’s loss, and a total in the low 40s looks about right. Expect something in the range of 23–13.

Eagles ML (-375)
Philadelphia is the safer moneyline anchor. They’ve already beaten stronger opponents and match up well in the trenches. Barring a turnover-heavy game, this should be a comfortable rebound win.

Bet: Eagles ML (-375), Eagles -7 (-105), Under 40.5 (-110)

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Odds

The NFL’s international series heads to London with Denver meeting New York at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Denver comes in off a grind-it-out 21–17 road win at Philadelphia, where the defense held the Eagles to 45 rushing yards and Bo Nix played clean, mistake-free ball. J.K. Dobbins logged 20 carries for 79 yards and a score, and Courtland Sutton operated as the chain mover with 8 catches for 99 yards.

The Jets fell to 0–5 at home after a 37–22 loss to Dallas, but there were glimmers on offense. Justin Fields threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns, and Breece Hall ripped 14 carries for 113 yards. The issues were protection and drive-killing sacks, as Fields went down five times and New York again struggled on third down.

That protection problem is where Denver can press the edge. The Broncos just hit Jalen Hurts six times and kept the lid on explosive runs, which forces opponents into long passing downs. If New York can’t keep Fields clean, Garrett Wilson and the short game will need to carry with quick outs, slants, and designed rollouts to avoid negative plays.

London games can be choppy early, and both staffs have shown a willingness to lean on the run when the game script allows. Denver’s path is ball control behind Dobbins and a patient Nix, while the Jets need Hall to pop chunk gains and set up play action. If this turns into a red-zone field-goal battle, Denver’s cleaner operation gets the nod.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Predictions

Jets +7.5 (-110)
This opened near the key of 7, and the hook matters in a neutral-site game with travel and early kick variables. The Jets showed enough on the ground with Hall to believe they can string together drives and keep this within one score if sacks are trimmed. Take the points at +7.5 and hope the run game shortens it.

Under 43.5 (-105)
London starts often sap pace and explosive plays, and both teams prefer the run when they can. Denver’s defense just smothered Philly’s rushing attack, while the Jets’ pass rush can force Nix into checkdowns and clock-draining sequences. A 23–17 type script fits.

Broncos ML (-395)
For moneyline purposes, Denver is the safer side with the steadier QB play and fewer self-inflicted errors. Pair it in parlays rather than laying heavy juice straight. Their edge in the trenches should be enough late.

Bet: Broncos ML (-395), Jets +7.5 (-110), Under 43.5 (-105)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

The Indianapolis Colts snapped back with a 40–6 thrashing of the Raiders and looked clean across the board. The Colts scored touchdowns on six of eight drives, posted zero turnovers, and protected Daniel Jones on a day the offense never faced real stress. That kind of drive finish plays well against a defense that has struggled to get off the field.

The Arizona Cardinals have dropped three straight after a 2-0 start, and the late-game execution has been the theme. The Cardinals blew a 28–6 lead two weeks ago and then fell 22–21 to Tennessee despite a strong run game. They need to flip the turnover margin and avoid the stalled red-zone trips that have popped up in tight spots.

The trench matchup leans to Indy. Jonathan Taylor handled 17 carries and punched in three short scores, while the line kept Jones upright and on rhythm. Arizona’s defense sits bottom third in yards allowed and has leaked passing yards even after a soft stretch of opposing quarterbacks, which opens play-action shots to Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr.

Arizona still has ways to move it. Emari Demercado hit a 71-yard burst, only to fumble the ball before crossing the goal line. Oops! Trey McBride is a first-down machine, and Kyler Murray adds designed runs plus scrambles. To stay close, the Cards need early-down success and to avoid third-and-long where the Colts’ rush can tee off.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Predictions

Colts -6.5 (-110)
Indy’s offense is finishing drives and the turnover profile is solid through five games. With Taylor controlling tempo and Jones distributing on time, the Colts are set up to pull away in the second half. Laying under a touchdown is reasonable at home.

Over 47.5 (-110)
Colts games spike when they face bottom-half defenses, and this fits that mold. Arizona can contribute with Murray’s legs and a few chunk plays to Marvin Harrison Jr. or McBride. A script in the high 20s for Indy and mid-teens to low 20s for Arizona lands over.

Colts ML (-298)
If you want the safer angle, the moneyline works as a parlay anchor. Indy owns edges in protection, red-zone finish, and overall depth. Barring a big turnover swing, they should close this out.

Bet: Colts -6.5 (-110), Over 47.5 (-110)

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Dallas Cowboys come in off a 37–22 win over the Jets that showed balance and finish. Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns on 18-of-29 passing for 237 yards, and the ground game piled up 180 yards led by 135 from Javonte Williams. When the Cowboys protect and stay on schedule, they create explosives off play action and stress linebackers with tight ends.

The upstart Carolina Panthers just beat Miami 27–24 behind a bruising run script. Rico Dowdle handled 23 carries for 206 yards with a long of 53, and the team rushed for 239. Bryce Young managed the game with 198 yards and two scores, though he took three sacks and the passing game leaned short.

The trench battle will decide a lot here. Dallas can win on early downs with the run and set up easy throws to Jake Ferguson and the perimeter. Carolina’s best counter is another heavy dose of Dowdle behind gap looks that keep the Cowboys’ pass rush out of long-yardage spots.

Explosives point to Dallas while pace and rush volume give the Panthers a path to trade drives. If this turns into a red-zone duel, Dallas’ passing depth and quarterback play carry the edge. Carolina needs a clean turnover day and another big rushing output to stay within reach late.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Predictions

Cowboys -3.5 (-105)
Dallas brings the better passing ceiling and just posted four touchdown tosses against the Jets. The Panthers’ run can keep this close for stretches, but passing downs still tilt toward Dallas. Laying under a field goal and a hook is reasonable with the better QB and more ways to score.

Over 49.5 (-112)
Carolina games open up when the run breaks chunk gains, and their win over Miami landed 51 points. Dallas can push pace and hit explosives once the run game is established. A script in the high 20s for Dallas and low to mid 20s for Carolina gets this over the number.

Cowboys ML (-192)
If you want the safer angle, Dallas on the moneyline works as a single or a parlay leg. The Cowboys have multiple paths to points and should control the late stages if they avoid giveaways.

Bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-105), Over 49.5 (-112), Cowboys ML (-192)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are back from Europe, where each faced Minnesota. Pittsburgh beat the Vikings 24–21 and then got a bye, which helps with recovery and prep. Cleveland fell 21–17 to Minnesota in London and now hits the road again for a divisional test.

The Steelers showed a clean formula in their last game. Aaron Rodgers went 18-of-22 for 200 yards with one touchdown and no picks, and the run game churned out 131 yards with two scores. That balance should stress a Browns defense that has been on the field a lot with a rookie quarterback.

Cleveland turned to Dillon Gabriel for his NFL debut and the numbers told the story. He threw for 190 yards at 5.8 yards per attempt with two interceptions and was sacked twice. The Browns ran it well with Quinshon Judkins, but negative plays in the pass game kept points off the board.

This sets up as a field position game where Pittsburgh’s edges in quarterback play and pass rush matter. The Steelers generate pressure and can force Gabriel into quick throws and checkdowns. If Pittsburgh avoids turnovers, they can lean on the ground game and close with their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Predictions

Steelers -4.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh has the steadier quarterback and extra rest off the bye. Their defense should squeeze a conservative Browns plan and create short fields. Laying under a touchdown at home is fair.

Under 37.5 (-105)
Both teams lean run and play slow in neutral states. Rookie volatility plus red-zone stalls point to a game in the low 20s to teens. A 20–13 or 20–16 type finish fits.

Steelers ML (-230)
If you prefer less risk, use the moneyline as a single or parlay piece. Pittsburgh’s rest, home field, and turnover profile give them more paths to win. Cleveland needs a clean game from Gabriel to flip it.

Bet: Steelers ML (-230), Steelers -4.5 (-115), Under 37.5 (-105)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

It’s been a rough month for the Baltimore Ravens, capped by a 44–10 home loss to Houston. With Lamar Jackson sidelined, Cooper Rush threw three interceptions and the offense mustered just 44 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Derrick Henry scored, but the run game never got traction and the Ravens’ defense allowed explosive plays all afternoon. That leaves a lot to fix on a short week.

The Los Angeles Rams fell 26–23 in overtime to San Francisco, but the passing game hummed. Matthew Stafford threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Puka Nacua (10-85) and Davante Adams (5-88-1) won consistently on the perimeter, and Kyren Williams added 65 yards on 14 carries to keep balance. Penalties and a late stall were the difference.

Matchup-wise, Los Angeles’ spread system can stress a Baltimore secondary that was on the field a ton last week. If Jackson sits again, Baltimore needs a clean, low-variance script with Henry and the short game to keep Stafford on the sideline. Zay Flowers remains the best bet to create yards after the catch if the Ravens do get behind the sticks.

The situational edge leans to L.A. on offense and to Baltimore on special teams and short-yardage run defense. If the Ravens limit giveaways and finish red-zone trips, they can win the game. But the Rams’ passing ceiling keeps the underdog live inside a full touchdown plus the hook.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams Predictions

Rams +7.5 (-112)
Catching more than a touchdown with Stafford and this receiver trio is attractive against a Ravens team in flux without Jackson. L.A.’s pass protection held up versus the 49ers and should create enough clean pockets to trade scores. Even if Baltimore leads, backdoor lanes are open with Stafford’s tempo attack.

Over 44.5 (-110)
The Rams are built to push pace and hit explosives, and their last five have regularly hit the mid-20s. Baltimore still has playmakers and can ride Henry plus quick-game shots to Flowers to move the chains. A 27–21 or 27–20 outcome clears.

Ravens ML (-375)
For straight-up purposes, Baltimore at home with edges on the lines and special teams is the safer side. They can lean run, flip the field, and protect a lead. Use the moneyline as a parlay piece rather than laying the spread.

Bet: Ravens ML (-375), Rams +7.5 (-112), Over 44.5 (-110)

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds

Miami sits at 1–4 but continues to compete every week without Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins just dropped a close one in Charlotte, 27–24, where Tua Tagovailoa threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle (6-110-1) and Darren Waller (5-78-1) handled the intermediate game, while De’Von Achane chipped in both as a runner and receiver. Since Week 1, Miami has scored at least 21 in every outing, and the passing game still creates chunk gains even without its top field-stretcher.

The Chargers return home after a 27–10 loss to Washington in which the offense never found rhythm. Justin Herbert was held to 166 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and Los Angeles leaned on a committee for 155 rushing yards that didn’t translate into points. Depth is being tested: Najee Harris is done for the year and Omarion Hampton hit IR, leaving Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal as the likely lead backs for now.

Matchup-wise, Herbert can still attack Miami’s defense, which has allowed 6.6 yards per play and 29 points per game this season. Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston against Miami’s corners provide a path to sustained drives if protection holds up. The question is whether L.A. can finish red-zone trips without its top two backs to balance play-calling and short-yardage.

For Miami, the plan stays the same: quick-strike timing throws to Waddle and Waller, motion to free Achane on the edges, and enough tempo to stress a Bolts defense that has sagged late in games. If the Dolphins avoid the one bad turnover that has haunted them, their offensive efficiency should show up on the road again and put pressure on the depleted Chargers backfield to answer.

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

Dolphins -4.5 (-115)
Miami’s passing-game floor without Hill is still higher than the Chargers’ current ceiling with a patchwork backfield. Tua has multiple reliable outlets, and the matchup favors yards-after-catch against L.A.’s underneath zones. Laying under a touchdown is reasonable, with Miami’s speed and efficiency carrying the cover.

Over 44.5 (-105)
Both sides have clear avenues to points: Herbert versus a defense giving up explosive plays, and Miami’s motion-heavy attack against a Chargers unit that struggles to close. Even with L.A.’s RB injuries, short fields from Herbert and red-zone creativity can keep them contributing. A 27–21 or 27–20 type game gets this over.

Dolphins ML (-230)
If you want the safer route, Miami on the moneyline is a solid anchor. The Dolphins have been in every game since Week 1 and bring more reliable drive finishers. Barring a turnover swing, they should control the final quarter.

Bet: Dolphins -4.5 (-115), Over 44.5 (-105), Dolphins ML (-230)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars ride in on short rest after Monday night’s thriller, edging the Chiefs 31–28. The Jaguars weren’t perfect — Trevor Lawrence took three sacks and the run defense gave up chunk gains — but they made timely plays. Brian Thomas Jr. stretched the field, and Travis Etienne has been a steady% dual-threat safety valve. Coming home should help the protection and communication after a high-leverage, noisy road spot.

The Seattle Seahawks are off a gut-punch, falling 38–35 to Tampa Bay despite big numbers through the air. Sam Darnold tossed four touchdowns with 341 yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba erupted (8–132–1), and the ground game was efficient with Kenneth Walker III (10–86) and Zach Charbonnet punching in. The issue was defense: the secondary surrendered 379 passing yards and explosive plays down the seams and on crossers.

That defensive profile is where Jacksonville can press. Doug Pederson’s quick-game and intermediate in-breakers ask corners and linebackers to tackle in space — the exact spots Tampa exploited. If Etienne gets early success on gap looks, play-action can spring Thomas Jr. and the slot options on layered routes, limiting third-and-longs for Lawrence.

On the other side, Seattle’s path is clear too: lean on Walker and Charbonnet to test a Jags front that just allowed Kansas City to rip off 7+ yards per carry, then use shot plays off max-protect. This is close to a coin flip, but Jacksonville’s home field on a short number, plus their edge in red-zone design, nudges things toward the hosts in a game that could play a touch slower than the market expects.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

Jaguars +1.5 (-125)
With the line near pick’em, taking the home dog with the hook has value. Jacksonville’s scheme targets Seattle’s recent coverage leaks, and the Jags’ screen/quick-game can mitigate the Seahawks’ pass rush. In a one-score script, the +1.5 matters.

Under 46.5 (-105)
Both offenses can score, but the most reliable paths are methodical: Seattle on the ground and Jacksonville’s quick-hit passing. That chews clock and shortens drives. A 23–20 or 24–21 finish fits under.

Jaguars ML (-110)
If you prefer simplicity, the moneyline is fine at essentially even odds. Home crowd, red-zone creativity, and a slightly cleaner turnover profile tilt this toward Jacksonville late.

Bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-125), Under 46.5 (-105), Jaguars ML (-110)

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Odds

The New England Patriots roll in with momentum after a 23–20 road win in Buffalo. Drake Maye was efficient (22-of-30, 273 yards, 0 INT) and the offense spread it around with Stefon Diggs (10-146) and Hunter Henry (2-46) winning key downs. The run game didn’t explode, but the Patriots finished drives and avoided the back-breaking turnover that has hurt them in tight games.

The New Orleans Saints just secured their first victory of the season, 26–14 over the Giants. The defense did the heavy lifting, forcing five New York turnovers while Spencer Rattler threw for 225 yards with a touchdown and an interception. New Orleans still hasn’t found a consistent explosive element; much of the offense flows through Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara underneath, and red-zone efficiency has been hit-or-miss.

This matchup tilts toward a field-position game. New England’s defense just held Buffalo to 20 and has tightened up on third down the past two weeks. If the Patriots can keep Maye clean against a Saints front that prefers to rush four and play coverage, they’ll be able to string together enough long drives to stay inside the number.

On the flip side, New Orleans needs to win early downs with Kamara and quick game to keep Rattler ahead of the sticks. If the Saints are forced into obvious passing situations, New England’s disguised pressures and post-snap rotations can bait mistakes. With the Saints’ offense still capped and the Patriots trending up on the road, this profiles as another one-score, lower-total grinder.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Predictions

Patriots -3.5 (-108)
Catching the hook is valuable in what projects as a tight, possession-based game. Maye’s mistake-free outing in Buffalo and New England’s recent third-down improvement point to a script where the Pats trade field goals and stay within a field goal late.

Under 45.5 (+100)
New Orleans has been one of the league’s lower-scoring teams and leans conservative in neutral states. The Patriots’ defense just held the Bills to 20, and both sides funnel throws underneath, which bleeds clock. A 23–20 or 21–20 result fits.

Patriots ML (-185)
New England’s rising form and turnover edge give them real win equity. The Saints rely on defense and short fields; if those don’t materialize, their offense can stall.

Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-112), Under 45.5 (+100), Patriots ML (+154)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders head to Nashville trying to stop a four-game slide after getting blasted 40–6 by the Colts. The Raiders’ offense never settled — Geno Smith threw two interceptions and the run game mustered 106 yards — but there were flashes with Ashton Jeanty on limited touches and Tre Tucker creating chunk gains. The task now is cleaning up protections and communication in a loud road environment rather than at Allegiant.

The Tennessee Titans return home off a 22–21 upset in Arizona. Cam Ward wasn’t gaudy but avoided turnovers and hit timely explosives, with Calvin Ridley going 5-131 and Tony Pollard grinding 67 yards and a score. The Titans still sputter on early downs and lean on defense/special teams to create short fields, but Ward’s mobility plus multiple-TE looks can keep drives on schedule — especially with the home crowd behind them.

The matchup hinge remains how Vegas’ veteran secondary and pass rush handle Ward’s first-read throws. The Raiders have experience on the back end, yet they’ve allowed too many clean pockets and were carved up by Indy last week. If they can put Tennessee behind the sticks, pressure packages should force quick throws and cap Ridley’s downfield damage; if not, Ward can leverage play-action to stress the flats.

For the Raiders, the friendlier path to points is still there even on the road. Tennessee’s defense has sprung leaks (two 33+ against already) and the run D is vulnerable, setting up Jeanty and play-action targets Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. If Vegas protects the ball and finishes red-zone trips, they can overcome the venue disadvantage — but the setting does narrow the margin.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans Predictions

Raiders -4.5 (-108)
Even in a true road spot, Las Vegas owns the cleaner passing matchups and more reliable drive finishers. With a simplified plan for Smith and favorable routes for Meyers/Bowers, the Raiders have enough to clear a field-goal-and-a-hook.

Over 41.5 (-108)
Both defenses are leaky, and short fields can pile up points. Ward has weapons to answer if Vegas pushes pace, while the Raiders should find explosives off play-action. A 24–20 or 27–17 type game threatens the mid-40s.

Raiders ML (-230)
If you want to mute road variance, the moneyline works as a parlay anchor. QB edge and red-zone options still favor Vegas, even in Nashville.

Bet: Raiders -4.5 (-108), Over 41.5 (-108), Raiders ML (-230)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

The Buccaneers stay on the west coast after a 38–35 shootout win in Seattle in Week 5. Baker Mayfield is dealing right now, fresh off 379 yards with multiple explosives to Emeka Egbuka (7–163–1) and steady chain-moving from Cade Otton and Rachaad White. Tampa Bay’s offense has quietly found a nice blend of quick game and vertical shots, and it’s traveling with confidence.

San Francisco returns home after an overtime win over the Rams, but health remains the storyline. George Kittle is likely out again, Brandon Aiyuk remains sidelined, and all of Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings are questionable after missing last week. With bodies down, the 49ers leaned on Kendrick Bourne (10–142) and Christian McCaffrey (8–82–1) plus a heavy dose of timing throws, and they may need a similar approach if Purdy can’t go and it’s Mac Jones again.

The chess match is Tampa Bay’s surging pass game against a Niners defense that still rallies and tackles, particularly at home. If the Bucs’ line holds up on early downs, Mayfield has enough outlets to keep San Francisco out of its exotic third-down looks. Conversely, Kyle Shanahan will try to slow the game with McCaffrey, screens, and play-action to protect a thinned-out receiver room and avoid long-yardage pass sets.

Levi’s Stadium is a tough venue, but the current form and injury ledger tilt toward Tampa Bay. The Bucs don’t need 35+ to get this done; clean red-zone trips and a modest run fit versus McCaffrey can be enough if San Francisco’s passing weapons remain limited.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions

Buccaneers -3 (-115)
Even on the road, Tampa Bay has the healthier passing game and more ways to finish drives. With Kittle/Aiyuk out and multiple WRs plus Purdy uncertain, the 49ers’ margin for error shrinks. I’ll lay the field goal with the hotter, cleaner offense.

Under 47.5 (-110)
A shorthanded San Francisco likely leans on McCaffrey and clock-draining scripts, which suppresses total plays. Tampa Bay can score, but if the Bucs get ahead they’ve shown a willingness to throttle pace. This profiles as a mid-40s game.

Buccaneers ML (-162)
If you want to mute road-game variance, the moneyline is a reasonable anchor. Tampa Bay’s QB health and receiving depth are the deciding factors against a battered Niners offense at home.

Bet: Buccaneers -3 (-115), Under 47.5 (-110), Buccaneers ML (-162)

Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

The Green Bay Packers come off a bye after that 40–40 thriller in Dallas, and the offense looked the part: Jordan Love pushed the ball vertically (337 yards on 31-of-43) while the run game churned out 164 yards, helping the Packers post 6.1 yards per play. Even more important, the protection held up—just one sack allowed—so the full playbook was available in high-leverage spots.

The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, have been reeling without Joe Burrow. Jake Browning tossed three interceptions in last week’s 37–24 loss to Detroit and generated just 6.3 yards per attempt while the ground game managed 85 yards on 16 carries. The Bengals reportedly swung a deal for Joe Flacco, but all indications are Browning gets the Week 6 start, which keeps the playbook condensed and raises turnover risk behind an O-line that has struggled to create clean pockets or rushing lanes.

Matchup-wise, Green Bay’s defensive front should control early downs. The Packers can rotate bodies and still get pressure with four, which is where Browning has gotten into trouble. With GB’s secondary healthy enough to lean into press and pattern-match rules on the outside, Cincinnati will be forced to string drives together rather than living on explosives—another tilt toward the favorite.

The other edge for Green Bay: short fields and hidden yards. The Packers’ special teams have quietly been solid, and Cincinnati has been leaky in coverage phases. If GB is playing on a compressed field and Cincinnati is playing behind the sticks, this sets up for a methodical Packers cover rather than a shootout—especially in a hostile Lambeau-adjacent environment for a QB making another spot start on the road.

Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions

Packers -14 (-110). The gap at quarterback and along the lines is massive. Green Bay can win both trenches, keep Jordan Love clean, and lean on a multi-back run plan to salt away a lead. With Browning prone to mistakes when forced past his first read, one or two short-field possessions should be enough for GB to clear two touchdowns.

Under 44.5 (-112). This leans more on Cincinnati’s side of the ledger: if the Bengals don’t contribute 20+, it’s hard for this to jump the mid-40s. Green Bay can play from ahead with a slower second-half pace and a run-heavy script, while the Packers’ pass rush keeps Cincy’s early downs in check. A 27–13 or 30–14 type of game fits.

Packers ML (-950). It’s a steep price but a viable parlay anchor. Green Bay owns the cleaner offense, better defense, and the turnover-worthy QB is on the other sideline. Barring a catastrophic special-teams play or turnover avalanche, GB takes care of business.

Bet: Packers -14 (-110), Under 44.5 (-112), Packers ML (-950)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Odds

Here we go — Sunday night sets up as a heavyweight bout that could pass for a February preview. Detroit returns home off a statement win over Cincinnati, where the defense bent early but adjusted and the offense kept stacking first downs. The Lions’ OL has been outstanding in pass protection and on combo blocks for the run game, which allows the offense to stay balanced and execute its favorite play-action and motion looks. That’s bad news for a Kansas City front that just got stretched horizontally by Jacksonville and again showed leakiness on the perimeter.

For the Chiefs, it’s still Patrick Mahomes… but the margin for error has shrunk. Protection remains week-to-week, and when the pocket muddied versus the Jags he took more hits and the offense went through longer empty stretches. Kansas City can still generate explosives (Tyquan Thornton flashed last week, Travis Kelce is Kelce), yet the run game is largely a committee of light boxes and QB scrambles. If KC falls behind the sticks, Steve Spagnuolo’s group has to win this game — and that’s a lot to ask on the road against Detroit’s tempo.

Detroit’s defense has quietly become more multiple. Aaron Glenn is toggling between quarters/robber looks and timely five-man pressures; it confused Jake Browning and took away his first read. The matchup swing here is Aidan Hutchinson & Co. against KC’s tackles — if the Lions can get home with four and keep a robber on Kelce’s crossers, they force Mahomes to hold it just long enough for negative plays to show up.

Pace and red-zone efficiency both point upward. Dan Campbell stays aggressive on fourth downs, and the Chiefs won’t sit on punts either. With two top-10 red-zone play callers and elite QB play on one sideline (and top-10 QB play from Goff at home on the other), sustained drives should turn into points, not field goals.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

Spread — Lions +2.5. Detroit’s offensive balance and pass-pro advantage offset Mahomes’ edge at QB. KC’s tackles vs. Hutchinson/Detroit stunts is the hinge — and it favors the home dog. I’ll take the points with a live moneyline sprinkle.

Moneyline — Lions +114. Home crowd, healthier line play, and better sequencing offensively tilt a tight game. If the Lions get even a draw on special teams/turnovers, their efficiency on early downs carries them across the finish line.

Total — Over 51.5. Both staffs are ultra-aggressive and both offenses are top-tier in the red zone. Detroit’s play-action/shot menu plus Mahomes’ scramble-drill explosives give us multiple paths to the 50s; late-game tempo is a bonus.

Bet: Lions +2.5 (-112), Over 51.5 (-115), Lions ML (+114)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

We get our first Monday Night Football matchup of Week 6 as the Bills host the Falcons at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo is coming off a 23-20 home loss to New England in which the offense struggled to find rhythm, while Atlanta enters off a bye following a strong 34-27 win over Washington.

The Falcons’ offense finally showed signs of balance before the break, with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. completing 20 of 26 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson combined for nearly 220 yards through the air, while Robinson and Tyler Allgeier powered a 128-yard ground attack. That efficiency across both phases will be critical in attacking a Buffalo defense that’s been surprisingly soft on early downs this season.

Buffalo’s passing offense remains a work in progress. Josh Allen averaged just 8.2 yards per attempt last week and was sacked eight times, again highlighting protection issues when forced into longer drives. While the Bills have weapons in Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, their lack of a true vertical threat has compressed the field, and the Falcons’ aggressive press coverage could make that even tougher.

The real edge here may be on the ground. Atlanta’s physical front seven, led by Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata, should limit James Cook’s impact between the tackles. The Bills are just 1–3 this season when failing to reach 100 rushing yards, while the Falcons have held opponents to under 4.0 yards per carry in three of their last four. This could set up another grind-it-out game — one that favors the points and the underdog to keep it close late.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Spread — Falcons +4.5 (-105):
Atlanta’s offensive rhythm under Penix has been encouraging, and the bye week should only help. The Falcons can sustain drives through the air while keeping Allen under pressure — enough to cover this number on the road.

Moneyline — Bills -230:
Buffalo should still find a way to win at home, but the matchup isn’t ideal for them to separate. Expect a narrow Bills win, but Atlanta’s improvement makes the upset worth a small sprinkle at +190.

Total — Under 49.5 (-105):
Both defenses are better than they’ve shown on paper, and the Bills’ recent trend toward short, clock-draining drives points toward fewer possessions overall. With both teams preferring balanced playcalling, 49.5 looks a bit high.

Bet: Falcons +4.5 (-105), Under 49.5 (-105), Bills ML (-230)

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears Odds

We get a rematch of last season’s unforgettable finish — the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary to Noah Brown that stunned Soldier Field — as the Bears host the Commanders on Monday Night Football. This time, Chicago returns from its bye after a 25-24 road win over the Raiders, while Washington comes in hot following a 27-10 victory over the Chargers.

The Bears’ offense continues to show flashes of growth under Caleb Williams, who’s doing enough to keep Chicago in games despite limited downfield production. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas, while D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combined for 51 rushing yards and another score. Rome Odunze has emerged as Williams’ most reliable target, and the offensive line has looked steadier over the past two outings. Off a bye, that extra week of preparation should help Williams handle Washington’s heavy-pressure looks.

Washington’s offense, meanwhile, looks balanced and efficient. Jayden Daniels is coming off a 231-yard performance with one touchdown and no turnovers, while Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 111 yards and two scores in the win over Los Angeles. Deebo Samuel and Luke McCaffrey continue to form one of the most dangerous WR tandems in the NFC, giving Daniels plenty of help after the catch. Defensively, the Commanders have quietly improved, holding three straight opponents under 24 points while generating steady pressure from their front four.

The key here will be whether Chicago’s defense can stop the run. The Bears rank 28th in rushing DVOA, which could again be a problem against Croskey-Merritt and Daniels’ designed runs. However, the Bears’ pass rush, led by Montez Sweat and Tremaine Edmunds, is capable of forcing Daniels into longer down-and-distance situations — especially if the crowd noise plays a factor in primetime. Expect a scrappy, lower-scoring game where the home team hangs around.

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears Predictions

Spread — Bears +4.5 (-105):
Chicago is healthier off the bye and playing at home, which should help them stay within striking distance. Williams has avoided major mistakes, and with the crowd behind him, this feels like a live-dog spot.

Moneyline — Commanders -230:
Washington has the more complete roster and the steadier quarterback right now. Even on the road, their offensive balance and pass rush should ultimately carry them to another close win.

Total — Under 50.5 (-115):
Both teams prefer to play through their ground games, and neither has been explosive in the red zone. Expect sustained drives and long possessions that keep this total under 50.

Bet: Bears +4.5 (-105), Under 50.5 (-115), Commanders ML (-230)

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

The following are my three favorite bets for Week 6:

• Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns (-115)
• Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons (-115)
• Green Bay Packers -14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-110)

Pittsburgh comes in off a bye while Cleveland just started rookie Dillon Gabriel in his debut and now has to deal with the NFL’s most efficient pass rush. With extra prep and a meaningful edge at QB/HC, the Steelers should control field position and win by a touchdown.

Atlanta’s fresh off a bye, but the Falcons’ defense still leaks explosives through the air and Josh Allen rarely strings two quiet games together. Buffalo’s pass-game weapons versus Atlanta’s middling pressure is the key mismatch; a clean pocket tilts this by more than a field goal.

Green Bay returns to Lambeau after a recharge and faces a Bengals offense that’s sputtered behind Jake Browning (and only just added Joe Flacco). The Packers’ front should overwhelm Cincy’s protection again, giving Jordan Love short fields and room to separate.

If you roll these three into an NFL parlay at approximate prices of -115, -115, and -110, the combined odds land around +567. A $100 wager would return about $667 total ($567 profit). For more parlay bets, check out our best NFL parlays for each and every week. For the NCAAF fans, we also have some enticing College Football parlays of the week.