Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season marks the first week that we have byes. Four NFL teams will have the week off as the rest of the league will take to the gridiron to get a much-needed victory.

The week opens with an NFC West battle as the Los Angeles Rams host intra-state rivals the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. You know it’s going to be a good week when things open up with two strong squads.

And, yet, that’s not even the best game of the week. In fact, there are a handful of matchups that have us excited even before the season has started.

The Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles gets the top billing this week. However, on the undercard there is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers.

Sunday Night Football will punctuate the weekend with a big AFC East showdown as the New England Patriots head to Western New York to take on divisional rival the Buffalo Bills. And, Monday Night Football will feature the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

Without any further delay, let’s take a look at the NFL Week 5 odds and make our early Week 5 picks. There’s no shame in getting your Week 5 NFL bets in early if you can identify value on the boards, which we definitely have!

NFL Week 5 Schedule

NFL Week 5 Odds

The first thing that jumps out when scanning the [NFL odds] for Week 5 is the Detroit Lions carrying the largest spread on the board. Detroit is favored by double digits (-10.5) at home against the winless Bengals, making them the week’s biggest favorite and one of the safer straight-up options for bettors.

They’re not alone, though. The Buffalo Bills also check in as heavy favorites (-8.5) for Sunday Night Football against the Patriots, while the Arizona Cardinals are laying more than a touchdown (-7.5) at home to the Titans. Those three teams stand out as the biggest chalk of the week, but there’s value lurking elsewhere for moneyline hunters.

The rest of the Week 5 board is much tighter. A whopping 10 games have spreads of 4.5 points or fewer, including key matchups like the 49ers at Rams on Thursday night (LAR -7), Vikings at Browns in London (MIN -4.5), and Chiefs at Jaguars on Monday night (KC -3.5). With so many coin-flip lines, this week sets up as one of the most entertaining – and potentially volatile – slates of the season.

Totals are also worth monitoring. Half the board sits between 43 and 47.5, creating opportunities for totals betting if you prefer to play game scripts instead of sides. Whether you’re leaning toward favorites, looking for NFL underdogs, or simply following sharp line moves, Week 5’s board offers a little something for every bettor.

The lines look balanced overall, making this a great week to shop across your favorite sports betting sites for the best price. And if you’re looking for even more insight before firing, don’t forget to check in with the [best handicappers] for expert breakdowns.

With that said, if you would like more assistance on these early NFL betting lines or some last-minute advice when Week 5 arrives, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership. Get a Free Trial today and take advantage of elite NFL picks.

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NFL Week 5 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the full slate of NFL Week 5 matchups and make our NFL picks for each game.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

The Los Angeles Rams remain home riding a 27–20 win over the Colts, a game in which Matthew Stafford piled up 375 yards and three touchdowns despite three interceptions. Puka Nacua dominated with 13 catches for 170 yards and a score, while Tutu Atwell added a game-winning 88-yard touchdown. The Rams’ defense wasn’t airtight, but it limited Indy’s rushing attack to just 85 yards on 21 carries. At 3–1, Los Angeles looks the part of a division contender, especially with its pass game creating consistent chunk plays.

The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction. Already missing George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco lost 26–21 at home to the Jaguars, with Brock Purdy tossing two interceptions in his return from injury. Purdy has already been ruled out for this game with a toe injury, which means Mac Jones will draw another start under center. San Francisco will also be without Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, which leaves the Niners without their top four pass catchers. Could be tough sledding offensively for the visitors in this one.

Even with Christian McCaffrey still producing (92 yards on six receptions last week), the Niners’ offense looks one-dimensional. Their run game averaged just 3.5 yards per carry against Jacksonville, and defenses are crowding the box, knowing there are few explosive threats on the perimeter. Against a Rams secondary that forced two Colts picks and held Jonathan Taylor to just 4.5 yards per carry, it’s difficult to see San Francisco moving the ball consistently.

The situational edge also leans heavily toward Los Angeles. The Rams are at home on a short week, and Sean McVay’s offense has shown balance between Stafford’s downfield shots and Kyren Williams’ steady ground presence. San Francisco, on the other hand, is scrambling to plug roster holes at key skill positions while managing a shaky quarterback situation. With injuries mounting and the Rams surging, this game tilts toward the home side.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions

Rams -5.5 (-110). The 49ers’ injury situation is dire, and whether it’s a banged-up Jones under center, San Francisco lacks the firepower to keep up with Stafford, Nacua, and Davante Adams. Los Angeles’ defensive front should control the line of scrimmage and force third-and-long situations, where the Niners’ depleted pass catchers won’t win often enough.

Under 47 (-110). San Francisco’s offense has scored just 21 points in back-to-back weeks, and with key weapons sidelined, expecting a breakthrough is a stretch. The Rams can put points on the board, but the Niners’ defense should still prevent an outright shootout. A mid-20s to teens type of score fits.

Rams ML (-260). Los Angeles is the safer moneyline play here, as the healthier and more explosive roster. Even if the 49ers’ defense keeps this game closer for a while, the Rams’ playmaking edge eventually shines through.

Bet: Rams ML (-260), Rams -5.5 (-110), Under 47 (-110)

Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

London gets a physical matchup between two teams coming off very different Week 4 vibes. The Cleveland Browns were just handled by Detroit, 34–10, in a game where the offense again failed to clear 20 points and protection issues reappeared (two sacks, repeated pressure, little run-after-catch). Kevin Stefanski turns to rookie Dillon Gabriel after Joe Flacco’s rocky start; the rookie inherits a conservative pass game that has leaned on tight-window throws to David Njoku and shot plays to Isaiah Bond/Jerry Jeudy, but the efficiency hasn’t been there.

The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, fell 24–21 to Pittsburgh in Dublin, but the offense moved the ball: Carson Wentz threw for 350 yards with TDs to Jalen Nailor and Zavier Scott, and the receiver room (Justin Jefferson 10/126, Jordan Addison 4/114 consistently separated. The run game is committee-based with Jordan Mason (16/57) and a sprinkle of Carson Wentz keepers, but the Vikings’ pass game has the higher weekly ceiling, even with some volatility from Wentz under pressure.

The trenches and early downs are the swing factors in London. Detroit just limited Cleveland to 3.9 yards per rush and forced third-and-long; when the Browns fell behind the sticks, explosive passes vanished and Flacco’s lack of mobility magnified protection leaks. Gabriel can extend a play here or there, but Minnesota’s front has been better than expected at squeezing pockets and winning at the top of routes. If the Vikings can duplicate Detroit’s first-down success (Cleveland averaged 4.8 YPP in that phase last week), they’ll dictate script.

On the other side, Cleveland’s defense is still a handful at the line of scrimmage (Quinshon Judkins was held to modest efficiency before garbage time; Myles Garrett & Co. continue to collapse edges), but the Browns surrendered multiple explosive plays to Detroit’s WRs and RBs in space. That is a poor omen against Jefferson/Addison/Metcalf, especially on a fast track. Wentz will give you a turnover or two if baited into late throws, yet the Vikings’ ability to stress both sidelines should create more scoring chances than Cleveland’s condensed approach.

Situationally, Minnesota also gets the edge. Special teams and hidden yardage tilted the Dublin game toward Pittsburgh, but the Vikings still posted 200+ passing yards after halftime and showed they can chase when needed. Cleveland’s offense has not demonstrated the ability to match scores or finish red-zone trips (one TD vs. Detroit; 20.0 PPG on the year), and handing a first career start to a rookie QB on overseas travel is a tough ask.

Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings Predictions

Vikings -3.5 (-112). You’re paying a field goal and the hook, but Minnesota owns the more reliable explosive profile with Jefferson/Metcalf plus a QB who can capitalize when protected. Cleveland must string double-digit play drives to keep pace; that’s a poor fit for a unit still sorting out protection with a rookie making his first start.

Under 36.5 (-115). Neutral-site Unders have fared well in sloggy, early-window London games, and both teams bring red-zone warts. Cleveland wants to shorten the game with Judkins and play defense; Minnesota’s defense has been stingier on money downs than its raw yardage suggests. Possessions shrink, finishing lags.

Vikings ML (-195). Even if this drifts into a tight coin flip late, Minnesota owns more outs: the superior WR corps, better special teams, and the more experienced quarterback. With Cleveland unlikely to win a shootout and also unlikely to rip explosives, the Vikings are the side.

Bet: Vikings ML (-195), Vikings -3.5 (-112), Under 36.5 (-115)

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

The New York Giants turn to Jaxson Dart for his second career start after a gritty debut win over the Chargers. That game was carried by the ground game and defense: the Giants ran it 42 times for 161 yards (3.8 YPC) and held L.A. to 18 points. Dart was asked to manage it (13/20, 111 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), which is likely the plan again—especially after the crushing loss of Malik Nabers (ACL). Without their explosive WR1, New York’s pass game shrinks to quick-game throws to Darius Slayton/Theo Johnson and play-action shots off Cam Skattebo/Devin Singletary.

The New Orleans Saints just took one on the chin in Buffalo, but the box score shows a path against the Giants: New Orleans piled up 189 rushing yards on 34 carries (5.6 YPC) with Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller both efficient, while Spencer Rattler played point guard (18/27, 126, 1 TD). That two-headed run approach marries nicely with what the Giants allow; New York just faced 42 Chargers rushes for 161 yards and leaned on long fields to survive. If the Saints stay on schedule and protect Rattler (the Bills got to him for four sacks), they control tempo.

Trench play favors New Orleans. The Giants’ offense becomes more condensed without Nabers—lighter boxes won’t be as easy to punish. New York can still hammer out first downs, but sustaining 10-play drives in the Superdome without explosives is a big ask.

Situationally, this tilts toward the home side: the Saints’ special teams are steadier, their red-zone rushing package is deeper (Kamara/Miller QB-run tags), and their corners can squeeze New York’s outside receivers without rolling as much safety help. If Dart is forced into third-and-longs, Allen’s pressure looks become a problem.

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions

Saints -3.5 (-110). New Orleans’ rushing edge plus the Giants’ loss of Nabers shifts the explosives and the leverage downs to the home team. Saints win by one score.

Under 41.5 (-110). Both teams want to live in the run game, both quarterbacks are in caretaker mode, and the Saints’ defense tightens in the red zone. Fewer possessions, longer drives.

Saints ML (-180). Even if it’s a slog, the Saints have more finishing paths (Kamara/Miller, short-field pressure, special teams) and the cleaner passing answers.

Bet: Saints ML (-180), Saints -3.5 (-110), Under 41.5 (-110)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a gut-punch 25–24 loss to Chicago that ended with a blocked 48-yard field goal at the horn. Despite the final, the Raiders moved it consistently: Geno Smith went 14/21 for 117 yards with 2 TDs (no sacks), and the ground game churned out 240 yards at 7.7 YPC behind Ashton Jeanty (21-138-1) and Raheem Mostert (4-62). The explosive element also showed up downfield with Brock Bowers (5-46-1) and Jakobi Meyers (4-35) picking on soft zones.

The Indianapolis Colts just fell 27–20 in Los Angeles, but the offense looked functional. Daniel Jones (24/33, 262, 1/2) worked the quick game, Adonai Mitchell ripped a 96-yard day, and the Colts posted 262 receiving yards while allowing only two sacks. The run game was muted (21-85-1), yet Jonathan Taylor still flashed efficiency on early downs (17-76). Indy got no help from Adonai Mitchell, who dropped what would’ve been a crucial TD just before crossing the goal line in the third quarter of their eventual defeat.

The swing matchup is Indy’s front against a Raiders run game that’s suddenly a problem to solve. Chicago won the LOS with movement runs and gap schemes; the Colts were just gashed for 5.0 YPC by the Rams and now face a sturdier, more diverse Raiders rushing tree (Jeanty outside/Mostert explosives, QB keepers off zone read, plus Tre Tucker end-around looks). If the Raiders stay ahead of the sticks, Geno’s RPO/quick game can live in second-and-medium where he’s most comfortable.

On the other side, the Colts’ passing script travels: short throws to Mitchell/Kyren Williams (RB) and screens to Tyler Warren at TE leveraged L.A.’s off coverage last week. The Raiders’ defense gives cushion by design and just allowed 73% completions to Caleb Williams. That sets up Jones for a high-percentage day so long as Maxx Crosby doesn’t wreck drives—Indy’s tackles held up reasonably well (2 sacks; pressure better when they played on schedule).

Situationally, this tilts toward a tight, late-possession game. Las Vegas is a live dog with the ground edge and special-teams volatility (they just got a kick blocked). Indianapolis counters with red-zone weapons (Taylor + Mitchell isolations) and the more reliable down-to-down passing success.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

Raiders +3 (-110). Las Vegas owns the clearest path—rushing success against an Indy front that has been springy the last two weeks—and protects Geno with second-and-shorts. With both offenses leaning efficient, three feels rich for the home side in a game that profiles within one score either way.

Under 45.5 (-110). Both teams prefer to live underneath. Indy’s passing game is more chain-moving than explosive, and the Raiders’ run-heavy tilt bleeds clock. Red-zone drives (Taylor hammers vs. goal-line Jeanty) can yield short FGs rather than TDs. 23–20 or 24–21 lands often.

Raiders ML (+140). If the script is slow and run-weighted, variance shifts to special teams and one or two explosives. The Raiders have more paths (Jeanty/Mostert burst, Bowers seams, Geno legs) to steal it late.

Bet: Raiders +3 (-110), Raiders ML (+140), Under 45.5 (-110)

Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

The Denver Broncos just put together its most complete game of the season, smashing Cincinnati 28–3 at home. The Broncos’ offense finally had balance: Bo Nix hit explosives off play-action (326 yards on 29/42) while J.K. Dobbins and the committee churned out 186 rushing yards. Defensively, Vance Joseph’s group feasted on passing downs (four sacks, constant pressure) and allowed only 125 net passing yards with a long of 19. That’s the formula Denver needs: stay ahead of the sticks, leverage Marvin Mims’ vertical speed, and let a deep, active front pin its ears back.

The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, handled business 31–25 at Tampa Bay. It wasn’t perfect—Tampa still found explosives to Chris Godwin and Cade Otton—but Philly controlled the trenches: 288 total yards on just 54 snaps with Saquon Barkley adding 78 scrimmage yards and Jalen Hurts picking spots as a runner (62 yards on nine carries) and distributor (130 yards, 2 TD). Sean Desai’s defense again leaned on its pass rush (four sacks) and red-zone leverage to close it out.

This matchup tilts toward a lower-variance script. Denver’s defense is quietly top-tier in explosive-play prevention and just strangled Cincinnati to 3.5 yards/play. The Broncos can muddy Hurts’ first read with pattern-match looks, then force long drives where Joseph will heat up protections. On the other side, Philly’s front can crowd inside zones, making Dobbins/Nix earn everything on early downs; that keeps Denver in manageable, methodical possession football.

Situationally, the points have value. Denver’s special teams are trending up, and the Broncos’ down-to-down defensive consistency travels. Philly still owns the highest ceiling thanks to Hurts/Barkley and the pass-catchers, but in a game that profiles as field-position heavy with third-down weight, +4.5 captures the key outcomes.

Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions

Broncos +4.5 (-110). The number gives you both a tight Eagles win and Denver’s live upset path. The Broncos’ defense just erased Cincinnati and has the rush/coverage marriage to squeeze Philly’s explosives. If Denver runs at a neutral script and Nix avoids negative plays, possessions shorten and the points matter.

Under 44 (-110). Both defenses are better than the raw box scores: Denver ranks strong in explosive-pass rate allowed and just forced 14 Bengals drives into 3 points; Philly’s front four remains a problem on passing downs. With both teams comfortable leaning on the run and red-zone drives likely to stretch, 20–17 / 23–20 sits on the median.

Eagles ML (-210). In a coin-flip style script, Philadelphia’s late-down edges—Hurts’ legs, Barkley’s short-yardage finishing, and a deeper pass-rush rotation—are worth the straight-up nod at home even if the spread is rich.

Bet: Eagles ML (-210), Broncos +4.5 (-110), Under 44 (-110)

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

The Houston Texans roll in off a dominant 26–0 win over Tennessee that showcased balance and control. C.J. Stroud was sharp to the intermediate areas (22/28, 233 yards) while the Texans leaned on a committee run game with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb grinding out early-down success. The biggest step, though, came on defense: Houston allowed just 3.7 yards per play, pitched a red-zone shutout, and smothered the Titans’ quick-game looks on the perimeter with Nico Collins (4/79) and Dalton Schultz (5/30) doing the heavy lifting on offense once drives crossed midfield.

The Baltimore Ravens are navigating a tougher week. Lamar Jackson exited the loss at Kansas City with a hamstring issue and is not expected to play, which likely turns this offense over to Cooper Rush. The drop-off in designed QB run and second-reaction explosives is real. Rush can operate the structure, but Baltimore’s pass game already leans on Isaiah Likely/Zay Flowers winning over the middle; without Lamar’s legs widening run fits, the Ravens will be far more methodical and easier to compress between the 20s.

Trench play tilts Houston’s way. The Texans just held Tennessee to 3.7 yards per carry on 35 attempts and consistently won early downs, while their front created long fields by limiting explosives (Titans’ long rush: 11 yards). Baltimore’s ground game versus Kansas City needed Lamar’s 122 rushing yards to function; with Rush, the Ravens must lean on Derrick Henry and Justice Hill to create on schedule, and Houston’s downhill LBs have been sound fitting inside-out.

Situationally, this is a favorable road script for DeMeco Ryans. If Houston plays from in front, Stroud’s efficiency and the Texans’ pass-pro improvement allow them to live in the quick game to Collins/Schultz and bleed clock with Marks/Chubb. On the other side, Baltimore’s margin narrows without QB run; red-zone trips become tougher, and third-and-medium asks Rush to throw into a defense that just closed windows all afternoon against Tennessee. Texans’ balance and the injury context nudge this to the road side.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions

Texans -3 (-110). With Lamar likely out, the more complete offense and healthier roster is on the Houston sideline. Stroud’s efficiency plus a sturdier run D give the Texans the down-to-down edge.

Under 43.5 (-110). Baltimore’s explosive rate sinks without Jackson, and Houston has shown a willingness to sit on leads with a clock-chewing run mix. Fewer short fields and more field goals point Under.

Texans ML (-148). Even if Baltimore’s defense keeps this close, Houston owns the cleaner path to 20+ behind Stroud’s intermediate accuracy and a mistake-averse plan.

Bet: Texans ML (-148), Texans -3 (-110), Under 43.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets Odds

The Dallas Cowboys come in off a wild 40–40 overtime draw with Green Bay in which Dak Prescott threw for 319 yards and three scores while the run game again leaned on a committee. The headline this week, though, is that CeeDee Lamb is expected to miss another game. Without his WR1, Dallas’ pass game shifts from isolation explosives to a more spread/ball-out approach that relies on George Pickens and the backs in the flats.

The New York Jets just pushed Miami to the wire in a 27–21 loss, and the offense flashed the shape we expected in August: Justin Fields’ designed runs (81 yards on seven carries), Breece Hall’s chunk gains (5.8 YPC), and verticals to Garrett Wilson. That dual-threat stress is a tough fit for a Dallas defense that just surrendered 164 rushing yards to the Packers and has been vulnerable on the edges when the QB is a running threat.

Trench play tilts subtly toward the Jets. New York’s front four has been winning with four (six sacks of Tua across the last two meetings and steady pressure again last week), and the Cowboys’ OL—minus their top separator at receiver—has to live in longer down-and-distance if the early downs stall. If the Jets can keep Dallas behind the chains and force throw-and-catch to secondary targets, they can compress red-zone efficiency and keep this in a one-score script late.

Situationally, the matchup sets up for a home pop. Fields’ scrambling plus Hall’s zone run game attacks Dallas horizontally, while Robert Saleh’s defense is built to play a lot of single-high and squeeze dig routes—exactly where Prescott likes to live without Lamb. With short fields less likely for Dallas and New York’s offense finding more explosives, the underdog has live-dog vibes.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets Predictions

Jets +2.5 (-108). The Lamb absence narrows Dallas’ explosive ceiling, while New York’s QB run game and Hall’s cuts stress the Cowboys’ linebackers. Home field and the pass rush keep this inside a field goal.

Over 47.5 (-115). Both teams carry rushing explosives (Hall/Fields; Dallas’ scheme runs and YAC) and red-zone weapons (Ferguson, Garrett Wilson). A 27–24 type game is very live.

Jets ML (+120). If this turns into late-game coin-flip football, Fields’ legs and Hall’s finishing power give New York more paths—especially with Dallas down its alpha receiver.

Bet: Jets ML (+120), Jets +2.5 (-108), Over 47.5 (-115)

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

The Carolina Panthers walk into Miami with the offense sputtering and the pressure rising on Bryce Young. Last week’s 42–13 loss in New England underlined the issues: pass protection broke down (four sacks, multiple hits), the run game never stabilized drives, and short fields snowballed against the defense. Young finished 18/30 for 150 yards with a TD and a pick, while the Panthers’ ground game was held to 3.6 yards per carry and failed repeatedly in the red area.

The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, beat the Jets 27–21 behind a sturdy defensive effort and a productive ground game. De’Von Achane ripped off 99 yards and a score on 20 carries, and the Dolphins’ defense limited explosives while winning on third down. The big news, of course, is Tyreek Hill’s season-ending knee injury; Miami’s passing ceiling dips without its premier field-tilter, placing more on Jaylen Waddle and the tight end seams to create chunk gains.

This matchup still tilts Miami’s way in the trenches. Carolina’s offensive line has struggled with stunts and interior pressure, which has been a hallmark of Vic Fangio’s fronts. If the Dolphins can again control early downs with Achane and light boxes, they can keep Young in longer passing situations where Miami’s rush/coverage can compress windows. The Panthers’ defense also just surrendered 104 rushing yards and three rushing TDs to New England; that’s a red flag against Miami’s motion/run game.

Without Hill, expect Mike McDaniel to lean into run-action, screens, and Waddle’s in-breakers rather than constant vertical stress. That skews this toward a more methodical script, which actually matches what Carolina wants: shorten the game, limit possessions, and hope for a couple of short-field chances off mistakes. The Panthers’ best path is a ball-control day from Chuba Hubbard and a few designed keepers for Young to slow Miami’s rush—still a tough task if they’re chasing.

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Dolphins -6.5 (-110): Even with Tyreek Hill out, Miami grades better across the board: more consistent rushing, stronger pass defense, and a clear edge in early-down success. Carolina’s offense hasn’t traveled and continues to lag in EPA/play; Miami’s floor should be enough to clear a one-score number.

Under 44.5 (-110): Hill’s absence removes a chunk-play engine, and Miami likely leans run-heavy and possession-oriented. Carolina’s offense has scored 17 or fewer in three of four and just put up 13; their route to staying close is also via pace suppression. Fewer total possessions favor the Under.

Dolphins ML (-260): Miami’s defense plus the run game sets a stable floor at home. Carolina needs turnovers and short fields to spring the upset; Miami has been cleaner with the ball and can dictate script without forcing explosives.

Bet: Dolphins ML (-260), Dolphins -6.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans Odds

The Arizona Cardinals exit a narrow 23–20 loss to Seattle where the defense quietly held up after halftime and the offense moved the ball in spurts despite two red-zone stalls. Kyler Murray still created explosives with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, and the Cardinals’ front kept Sam Darnold uncomfortable enough to force a one-dimensional finish. The backfield is thin, though: with James Conner and Trey Benson sidelined, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter are likely to handle the work, pushing Arizona toward more quick game, option looks, and Murray-led designed keepers.

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a 26–0 shutout in Houston, a game that underscored ongoing issues along the offensive line and in pass protection. Cam Ward took four sacks and averaged 4.2 yards per attempt, while sustained drives were rare outside of Tony Pollard’s chunk runs. The Titans’ best hope remains a defense that’s been stingy in the red zone and decent on early downs, but it’s been stressed by short fields and three-and-outs.

The matchup tilts to Arizona’s passing edge. Tennessee’s corners have allowed efficient short-area completion chains; that’s where McBride and Harrison feast. If the Cards can stay on schedule with RPOs and perimeter screens, Murray’s legs become the tiebreaker against a Titans front that’s tougher between the tackles than on the edges.

Game flow favors a lower total. Arizona’s RB injuries point to a pass-rate over expectation spike but with a quick-tempo, short-throw script that keeps the clock moving. Tennessee’s offense still leans run-run-pass and has struggled to finish possessions; that plays into a grindy, field-goal heavy script.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans Predictions

Cardinals -2.5 (-110): Arizona owns the more dynamic quarterback and healthier perimeter weapons, and the scheme answers Tennessee’s base looks with quick-game/RPOs. With the Titans’ offense still searching, a late Cardinals drive (or short field) is the difference.

Under 41.5 (-115): Injuries in Arizona’s backfield cap explosives on the ground, while Tennessee’s pace and red-zone inefficiency suppress scoring. Both defenses are stronger on early downs than the final scorelines suggest.

Cardinals ML (-135): If it turns into a close, fourth-quarter coin flip, Murray’s scramble/out-of-structure advantage plus better pass catchers swings it Arizona’s way.

Bet: Cardinals ML (-135), Under 41.5 (-115), Cardinals -2.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive in Seattle shorthanded at the skill spots and searching for answers after falling 31–25 to the Eagles. Without Mike Evans (hamstring) the offense leaned on Chris Godwin and Sterling Shepard to move the chains and asked Rachaad White to wear two hats — early-down grinder and primary check down.

That kept the Bucs competitive, but it also narrowed their explosiveness profile: Baker Mayfield finished with 289 yards on 40 attempts, and Tampa’s only “splash” plays came on YAC-heavy underneath throws. The likely absence of Bucky Irving further concentrates the backfield to White with Sean Tucker spelling; that’s functional volume, not fireworks.

The Seattle Seahawks continue to feel different with Sam Darnold piloting the offense. The Seahawks just went into Arizona and won a trench game 23–20, and what stood out was how easily they manufactured chunk gains without forcing the issue. Darnold averaged 9.3 yards per attempt and found clean windows for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while the staff dialed up play-action and boot to keep protections sane. They didn’t need a runaway rushing day to control pace — just enough Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet to keep linebackers honest and the Cardinals out of their pressure looks.

Matchup-wise, this leans toward Seattle’s receivers and tight ends controlling the middle of the field. Todd Bowles’ defense is ferocious when it can blitz into long down-and-distance; it’s more ordinary when opponents live on first-down efficiency and win the quick game. Seattle’s passing script does exactly that: early down play-action, high-percentage crossers to JSN and Cooper Kupp, then the occasional shot off a max-protect look. If Bowles responds by spinning safety help to the slots, Seattle can pivot to heavier sets and run at light boxes; the Bucs just allowed 104 rushing yards to Philadelphia despite playing from behind for most of the afternoon.

On the other side, Tampa Bay’s best offensive path is methodical and mistake-free. White and Tucker can probe a Seattle front that prefers to rush with four and squeeze windows behind it, but without Evans there’s less gravity on the boundary to scare the corners out of press. That puts a lot on Godwin to win on digs and overs and on Cade Otton to convert third-and-medium. Mayfield’s legs are a wild card — a couple of chain-moving scrambles showed up last week — yet the pressure rate should climb at Lumen Field where Seattle’s crowd noise regularly creates free yards in false starts and elongated third downs.

Hidden-yardage leans Seahawks. Seattle’s coverage units have been sharp to start the year, and the Bucs’ return phase loses some juice without Evans stressing punt coverage as a gunner decoy. Short fields are more likely to break Seattle’s way, and with their red-zone package finally comfortable (tight end screens and designed QB keepers off orbit motion), three trips probably turn into two touchdowns instead of a field-goal parade.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions

Seahawks -3 (-110): Seattle’s early-down pass efficiency neutralizes Tampa Bay’s pressure, and the Bucs’ offense shrinks without its premier field-tilter in Evans and with Bucky Irving likely out. Seattle’s multiple ways to win (quick-game success, play-action shots, and a credible run plan into light boxes) make the favorite the right side of a one-score spread.

Over 44.5 (-110): Tampa Bay still moves the ball: Godwin is a volume beater against zone, and White’s involvement as a receiver keeps drives alive. Combine that with Seattle’s layered pass game and a handful of short-field opportunities created by special teams and penalties, and you get a script with enough possessions to clear the mid-40s.

Seahawks ML (-185): If this tightens late, Seattle owns the leverage spots: better red-zone design, a home-field pass rush that shows up on third down, and more trustworthy perimeter weapons to finish drives.

Bet: Seahawks ML (-185), Seahawks -3 (-110), Over 44.5 (-110)

Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

The Detroit Lions throttled Cleveland 34–10, and the box score told a familiar story: clean, efficient Jared Goff (16/27, 168 yards, 2 TD) working off a sturdy ground game (Jahmyr Gibbs 15–91–1) and a defense that swarmed. The Lions allowed just 79 rushing yards on 27 Browns attempts and forced Joe Flacco into a rough, inefficient day. Ben Johnson’s offense didn’t need fireworks—short fields and steady success rate were enough—with Amon-Ra St. Brown (7/70) and Sam LaPorta (3/39/1) constantly available on schedule.

The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, were overwhelmed in Denver, 28–3. With Joe Burrow still sidelined (toe), Jake Browning finished 14/25 for 125 yards and the Bengals never found traction. The run game managed only 53 yards on 15 carries and Cincinnati produced a single explosive play all afternoon. More worrying: Lou Anarumo’s defense surrendered 326 passing yards to Bo Nix and 186 rushing yards on 38 attempts—sustained, methodical drives that wore the front down.

This matchup tilts toward Detroit in the trenches. The Lions’ front four just limited Cleveland to 3.0 yards per carry and generated consistent early-down wins; that’s problematic for a Bengals offense that needs run success to keep Browning out of long third downs.

On the other side, Detroit’s rushing duo of Gibbs/David Montgomery against a Bengals front that was gashed by Denver sets up favorable down-and-distance and the full weight of the Lions’ play-action/RPO menu. If Cincinnati can’t flip field position with explosives or special teams, possessions will look a lot like last week: long Lions drives, short Bengals drives, and a cumulative time-of-possession squeeze.

Even if Cincinnati gets Tee Higgins/Ja’Marr Chase going on isolation shots, Detroit has answers on third down and in the red zone, and Aaron Glenn has been comfortable bringing pressure versus backup quarterbacks when his run defense holds serve. With Browning at the controls and the Bengals’ pace slowing to protect him, the total leans lower unless Detroit single-handedly pushes this into the high 40s.

Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions

Lions -4.5 (-110): Detroit’s profile (top-10 rushing efficiency, strong early-down defense, plus a clean QB) matches perfectly against a Bengals team that has struggled to create explosives and protect in obvious passing situations. The Lions should control script and field position.

Under 44.5 (-110): Cincinnati’s offense has scored 10, 23, 3 points in its last three games and now faces a defense that just capped the Browns at 10 while bleeding clock with the run. Detroit’s comfort living in 12 personnel and the Bengals’ conservative approach with Browning both point to fewer total possessions.

Lions ML (-210): If you prefer to reduce variance, Detroit’s floor (defense + run game) is notably higher right now, and the Bengals’ path to an upset requires explosive plays we haven’t seen with Browning.

Bet: Lions ML (-210), Lions -4.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Commanders Odds

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off an ugly 21-18 loss to the Giants, where Justin Herbert looked rattled behind constant pressure (23/41, 203 yards, 2 INTs, 5.0 YPA). The run game was solid thanks to Omarion Hampton’s 128-yard day, though Los Angeles stalled repeatedly in the red zone. Despite piling up 152 rushing yards, inefficiency on third down and poor protection left points on the board. Brandon Staley’s defense gave up 161 rushing yards to a middling Giants offense, showing cracks in the front seven.

The shorthanded Washington Commanders dropped a 34-27 shootout against Atlanta, with Marcus Mariota forced into another start. Mariota managed 156 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs, but the offense still leaned on explosive plays from Deebo Samuel (6/72/1) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (7/59, 8.4 YPC). The Commanders’ defense was shredded through the air, allowing 313 yards to Michael Penix Jr., but still created turnovers to keep them in the game. If rookie Jayden Daniels returns from his two-game absence, it would provide a major spark against a vulnerable Chargers secondary. If not, Mariota will need to survive in a shootout again.

The matchup tilts on quarterback play and trench consistency. Los Angeles’ offensive line is giving up sacks at a concerning rate, while Washington’s defensive front has been opportunistic. Conversely, Washington’s pass defense is prone to deep shots, which could allow Herbert to get Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston going if protection holds up. With both teams sitting at 2–2, this feels like a pivot game for playoff relevance.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Commanders Predictions

Chargers -3 (-110): Even with Herbert’s struggles last week, Los Angeles has the quarterback edge and more consistent skill talent. Washington has been too leaky in coverage, and if Daniels doesn’t return, Mariota isn’t likely to keep pace against Herbert’s arm talent.

Under 42.5 (-110): Both teams have leaned on inefficient, turnover-heavy games. Washington wants to slow tempo with the run and short passing, while Los Angeles hasn’t been sharp in the red zone. Unless Daniels returns and the Commanders’ offense suddenly clicks, the safer lean is the Under.

Chargers ML (-165): If you’d rather reduce variance, Los Angeles is the more stable side with Herbert at quarterback and multiple offensive playmakers. The Commanders’ upset path requires Daniels playing and immediately elevating an offense that has stalled without him.

Bet: Chargers ML (-165), Chargers -3 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday night as one of the few undefeated teams left in the AFC, and they’ve now rattled off four straight wins behind an efficient mix of Josh Allen’s dual-threat playmaking and a surprisingly sturdy defense. Buffalo handled New Orleans 31–19 last week by leaning on James Cook’s 117 rushing yards and timely chunk plays through the air. Even though Allen wasn’t flawless, the Bills dictated the game’s pace, controlled the trenches, and eventually wore down the Saints. That same script has carried them to a 4–0 start despite occasional turnover scares.

The New England Patriots’ situation is far different. The Patriots dismantled Carolina 42–13 in Week 4, but that came with caveats. Drake Maye looked the part, throwing for over 200 yards with two touchdowns, yet the Panthers’ pass rush hardly pressured him and their defensive backs couldn’t keep up with Buffalo’s receiving speed equivalents.

New England’s defense did force mistakes and capitalize on short fields, but against a Bills team that thrives on explosive plays and red-zone efficiency, that bend-but-don’t-break profile may not hold up. The Patriots’ defense just allowed 104 rushing yards and multiple scores to New England’s backfield rotation, which mirrors the Bills’ Cook-led ground attack.

The matchup likely hinges on whether New England can create turnovers and shorten the game. Buffalo’s offensive line has been stable, keeping Allen clean enough to hit receivers like Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir downfield. Without consistent disruption, the Patriots’ defense could find itself chasing from behind. On the other side, Maye will face one of his toughest tests yet. The Bills rank near the top of the league in pressure rate, and their secondary, led by Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, has excelled at limiting explosive pass plays. For a rookie quarterback, that combination of disguised coverages and relentless pressure is a steep climb.

Still, divisional games tend to tighten margins. The Pats have historically schemed well to slow down Buffalo’s tempo, forcing longer drives and testing Allen’s patience. If the Patriots can sustain the run with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson while avoiding obvious passing downs, they can keep the game within striking distance. But if Buffalo scores quickly and dictates pace early, Maye may be forced into higher-risk throws that swing momentum heavily in the Bills’ favor.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Bills -9.5 (-110): Buffalo has the better roster across the board, from quarterback experience to line play. The Patriots’ offense is too inconsistent to trust against a defense that thrives on forcing errors.

Under 44.5 (-110): With Buffalo comfortable slowing the tempo once ahead and New England likely playing conservatively with a rookie QB, this game skews toward fewer possessions.

Bills ML (-460): The safer side of the market. Buffalo’s combination of balance and explosive potential should be more than enough at home in prime time.

Bet: Bills ML (-460), Bills -9.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars head into Arrowhead after outlasting San Francisco 26–21, riding a 124-yard effort from Travis Etienne Jr. and a defense that held the 49ers under 3.5 yards per carry. Trevor Lawrence avoided turnovers and found just enough explosive plays to secure the win. Jacksonville now faces a Kansas City Chiefs team that looked far more like itself in a 37–20 rout of Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns, while Kansas City’s pass rush harassed Lamar Jackson into multiple sacks and forced a costly interception.

This matchup brings contrasting strengths into focus. Jacksonville’s run game has been the engine, averaging over 130 yards per contest with Etienne’s blend of power and burst. That formula will be tested by a Kansas City front that just bottled up Derrick Henry and limited Baltimore to 3.7 yards per rush. If the Chiefs can force Lawrence into consistent third-and-longs, Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive coverage packages could collapse the pocket against a shaky Jaguars offensive line. Conversely, if Jacksonville establishes Etienne early, they can shorten the game and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

The bigger concern for Jacksonville lies in the secondary. The Jags gave up 309 passing yards to Brock Purdy last week and now face Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and a resurgent wideout group led by Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Kansas City’s passing attack clicked into rhythm against Baltimore, producing five different players with catches of 15+ yards. Lawrence may need to push the ball vertically to keep pace, but his receiving corps has been inconsistent outside of Christian Kirk. Efficiency in the red zone will be critical — field goals won’t cut it against Mahomes at Arrowhead.

Ultimately, this game likely comes down to pace and possessions. Kansas City’s defense is more consistent than Jacksonville’s, and Mahomes is entering one of his patented midseason grooves. The Jaguars’ best path is riding Etienne, generating turnovers, and cashing in on short fields. But in a straight shootout, the Chiefs hold the clear advantage with Mahomes’ ability to extend plays and exploit coverage breakdowns. Unless Jacksonville forces multiple mistakes, Kansas City should dictate flow and cover the number at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Chiefs -3.5 (-110): Kansas City has the stronger overall roster, the better passing attack, and a defense built to neutralize Jacksonville’s biggest strength. Arrowhead at night tilts the balance further toward Mahomes.

Under 48.5 (-110): Both defenses trend stronger than the perception. Jacksonville will try to slow tempo with Etienne, and Kansas City’s defense has held three of four opponents under 21 points.

Chiefs ML -195: If you want to reduce variance, the straight moneyline remains a solid play.

Bet: Chiefs ML (-195), Chiefs -3.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

The following is our best bets for NFL Week 5:

• Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-110)
• Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)
• Under 44.5 Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins (-110)

The Lions are rolling, and their defense has quietly been one of the league’s best at shutting down explosive plays. With Cincinnati trotting out Jake Browning again, Detroit should be able to control this game in the trenches and win by more than a touchdown.

Kansas City finally looked like its old self last week, with Patrick Mahomes firing four touchdown passes and the defense harassing Lamar Jackson all afternoon. Back at Arrowhead on Monday night, the Chiefs should keep the momentum rolling against a Jacksonville team that has struggled to protect Trevor Lawrence.

Carolina continues to sputter offensively, and now they have to face a Dolphins defense that just held the Jets in check. With Tyreek Hill out for the year, Miami’s passing ceiling has taken a major hit as well. This sets up as a lower-scoring game where both sides lean heavily on the run.

If you follow our NFL best bets for Week 5 and put all three wagers into a parlay, then at the combined odds of roughly +595, you would turn a $100 bet into about $695 total payout ($595 profit). For more parlay bets, check out our best NFL parlays for each and every week. For the NCAAF fans, we also have some enticing College Football parlays of the week.