Week 2 has officially concluded, and the third week of the season begins with an AFC East clash as the Miami Dolphins travel to Western New York to battle the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. There’s nothing like an NFL primetime game with the Bills Mafia in attendance.

From there, Week 3 features some intriguing matchups along with a heavyweight fight on Monday Night Football as the Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions.

The semi-main event of the week is an NFC Conference Divisional Round rematch as the Los Angeles Rams return to Philly and try to avenge their January Playoff loss versus the Eagles.

On the undercard of the Lions vs. Ravens are the Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears, and Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings.

Without any further delay, let’s take a look at the NFL Week 3 odds and make our early Week 3 picks. There’s no shame in getting your Week 3 NFL bets in early if you can identify value on the boards, which we have!

NFL Week 3 Schedule 

NFL Week 3 Odds

As of this writing, the early NFL odds for Week 3 tell us a few important things to monitor over the next few months.

First thing we see is that the Bills are the biggest favorites of the week. In fact, the line went as high as 13 points earlier in the week. So, keep an eye on that movement.

The MNF matchup between the Lions and Ravens has the highest total of the week at 51.5 points, which is up two full points since the opening lines. Sports betting sites are expecting this game to be the highest scoring contest of the week.

Surprisingly, the Houston Texans are Underdogs on the road in Week 3 at the Jaguars. Plenty of value on Houston and the Bengals at Minnesota in a battle of backup QBs. Cincy is getting three points.

With that said, if you need even more assistance in these early lines or some last-minute advice leading up to the Week 3 games, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership. Get a Free Trial today and take advantage of elite picks.

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NFL Week 3 Predictions

Let’s take a look at the full slate of NFL Week 3 matchups and make our NFL picks for each game.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

The Buffalo Bills throttled the New York Jets 30–10 on Sunday behind a balanced, mistake-free plan that travels well into a short week. Josh Allen wasn’t asked to be a hero (14/25, 159 yards, 2 TDs) because James Cook and the ground game did the heavy lifting (21 carries, 132 yards), and Buffalo still hit 30. Defensively, the Bills squeezed New York to 179 passing yards total, generated five sacks across the game, and kept explosive plays in front of them. That’s exactly the blueprint you want four days later at home.

The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, fell to 0–2 with a 33–27 home loss to New England. Tua Tagovailoa piled up volume (26/32, 315 yards, 2 TD) but took five sacks and one costly pick, and the Dolphins again struggled to get timely stops. The Patriots went 29-122 on the ground and were ruthlessly efficient through the air (Drake Maye 19/23, 230, 2 TD), a worrying combo when your next opponent boasts a better offensive line, a stronger run game, and a quarterback who punishes soft zones.

The trench matchups tilt Bills. Buffalo just paved lanes for 224 rushing yards and should lean on Cook again vs. a Miami front that allowed 4.2 YPC to New England and couldn’t keep the edge clean. On the other side, Sean McDermott’s rush plan that bothered the Jets’ QBs should translate. Buffalo mixed simulated pressure with four-man heat and rallied to the ball, the same ingredients that gave Miami’s pass pro issues on Sunday.

Situationally, this is friendly to Buffalo: short-week home favorite with superior depth and special teams, plus a defense that’s communicating well early. Miami has the speed to pop explosives, but if the Bills keep Tua on schedule-killer downs (sacks, penalties) and force red-zone field goals, the scoreboard pressure will mount.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

Buffalo can script another balanced start, lean on Cook to set up chunk play-action to Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, and let a humming pass rush pin its ears back once the Dolphins are behind the sticks. Miami will move the ball – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are too good not to – but the mismatch in the run game and red-zone execution favors the Bills.

With the Bills living around the 30-point mark (13 games of 30+ last season; 30 again in Week 2) and Miami’s defense conceding efficiency to both opponents so far, the total has a clear path Over. The safest leg is Buffalo on the moneyline; for the spread, the combination of rushing edge and short-week advantage nudges this toward a cover.

Bet: Buffalo Bills -800 ML, Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-112), Over 49.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

The Green Bay Packers roll into Week 3 looking like a complete, well-coached outfit. Matt LaFleur’s group just handled Washington 27–18 on a short week, and the box score backed up the eye test: Jordan Love went 16-of-22 for 188 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, while the ground game leaned on Josh Jacobs (19 for 66) to keep the chains moving.

The receiving room showed real balance — Tucker Kraft (6 for 124), Dontayvion Wicks (3 for 45) and Romeo Doubs (3 for 28) each produced chunk gains — and the protection allowed only two sacks. Perhaps most encouraging, Green Bay’s defense punched above its weight again, limiting Washington to 51 rushing yards and 179 through the air.

The Cleveland Browns are still searching for answers after a 41–17 loss in Baltimore. Joe Flacco (25-of-45, 199 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mostly relegated to check-downs while the Browns fell behind, and although Quinshon Judkins flashed (10 carries, 61 yards at 6.1 YPC), game script wiped out the run. The defense had a rough afternoon: the Ravens threw four touchdown passes and averaged 11.8 yards per reception, consistently creating explosives off play-action and misdirection.

The matchup edges point Green Bay’s way at the line of scrimmage. Through two weeks, the Packers have suffocated opposing run games (46 rush yards allowed to Detroit in Week 1, 51 to Washington in Week 2), which puts added pressure on Flacco to win on long downs behind a line that has been leaky. Green Bay’s front of Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness and company has generated heat without blitzing, and Jeff Hafley’s back end has tackled well, limiting YAC and keeping red-zone snaps to a minimum.

Offensively, Green Bay’s multiplicity is a problem for Cleveland. The Browns just surrendered four passing scores despite holding Baltimore to only 45 rushing yards — a sign the secondary is springing leaks when the pass rush doesn’t get home. LaFleur’s condensed splits, motion packages and tight-end seams (see: Kraft’s 6-124) are built to stress linebackers and safeties. If the Packers again stay on schedule with Jacobs and quick game to Wicks/Doubs, they can control tempo and force Cleveland to chase.

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns Predictions

This sets up as another professional, workmanlike win for Green Bay. The Packers’ defense has been excellent early, and the Browns don’t profile as the offense to break them — not with a run game that could be muted by game script and a passing attack that’s been almost exclusively underneath. On the other side, Love’s efficiency combined with LaFleur’s schemed explosives should produce enough scoring drives against a Cleveland unit that just struggled to pass off routes and cover in space.

From a totals perspective, Cleveland’s path to hanging around is to shorten the game with Judkins and hope the defense stiffens in the red zone. The problem is getting there: Green Bay’s run fits have been sharp, and early deficits have forced the Browns into throw-heavy scripts. With the Packers’ defense setting the tone and their offense content to lean on Jacobs once ahead, this more often lands under the low-40s number.

Bet: Green Bay Packers ML (-470), Green Bay Packers -9.5 (-105), Under 42 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

The LA Rams rolled into Nashville and handled business, 33–19, behind a clean, efficient day from Matthew Stafford (23/33, 290 yards, 2 TD) and a deep receiver room. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua combined for 14 catches and 197 yards, and Kyren Williams chipped in as both a runner and receiver. The offense looked multiple and comfortable on early downs, which let Sean McVay stay aggressive in the red zone.

The Philadelphia Eagles improved to 2–0 after a road win at Kansas City. The Eagles didn’t light it up through the air, but they controlled tempo the way they like to: 34 team rushes for 122 yards, with Saquon Barkley carrying 22 times. That profile—ball control, manageable third downs, and red-zone QB run threats—travels, but it’s especially potent back home where Jalen Hurts hasn’t lost in ages.

This matchup comes down to whether L.A.’s pass game can stress the weak spots of Philly’s secondary while keeping Stafford clean. The Rams’ protection just handled a strong Titans front (one sack), and McVay’s quick-game plus play-action got his stars free at intermediate depths. That’s a pain point for the Eagles, who have been excellent at the line but are still tightening the coverage behind it. If Adams/Nacua win outside, the chains will keep moving.

On the other side, the Rams must tackle. Tennessee still popped 109 rushing yards, and Philadelphia is a tier up in run-game design. If the Rams don’t fit the QB run and Barkley’s downhill stuff, Hurts will grind out long, 10–12 play drives that squeeze possessions. Expect Philly to lean into that identity again and dare L.A. to win with efficiency, not explosives alone.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions

Expect a playoff-style script: long Eagles drives versus quick-strike Rams answers. Philadelphia’s ground game is the most reliable unit on the field, which is why the home side is the safer moneyline piece. But from a numbers standpoint, the Rams’ passing ceiling and protection give them plenty of backdoor and outright cover paths at +3.5.

Scoring should land a tick higher than market. Both staffs scheme touchdowns, not field goals, and each offense has a clear leverage point (Eagles on the ground; Rams through the air). With red-zone talent everywhere—Hurts/Barkley for Philly and Adams/Nacua for LA—finishing drives shouldn’t be a problem.

Bet: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-180), Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (-115), Over 44.5 (-110)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Odds

Shane Steichen’s offense looks very “portable” right now: lean on Jonathan Taylor, build play-action off it, and let Daniel Jones distribute efficiently. It worked in the Week 2 win over Denver, where Taylor ripped off 165 yards on 25 carries (6.6 per) and the passing game stacked 300+ yards on just 34 attempts while taking only one sack. When the Colts can live in early down success like that, drives stay on schedule and their red-zone chances climb without needing explosives.

The Tennessee Titans‘ defense didn’t have many answers for Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford completed 23 of 33 for 298 yards with a clean pocket most of the afternoon, and the Rams still ran it well enough (149 yards) to keep the Titans out of their comfort zone. The coverage busts down the field and the lack of consistent pressure are real concerns here against a Colts attack that just hit chunk plays to Josh Downs/Alec Pierce and kept the chains moving with Taylor.

There is a path for Brian Callahan’s team to grind this into their kind of game. Tony Pollard ran hard in Week 2 (92 yards on 20 carries), and Indianapolis just allowed 118 rushing yards at 4.9 per rush to Denver. If the Titans can lean into Pollard, mix in Cam Ward’s keepers and the quick game to Calvin Ridley, they can shorten this contest and keep Indy’s play-action explosives to a minimum. Tennessee’s special teams also flipped the field a few times last week; hidden yards matter in divisional coin-flip spots.

Ultimately, though, the Colts have the cleaner operation right now. They’re protecting the football, creating balance, and winning the trench battle on early downs. If Taylor again threatens 25 touches, Steichen will get the matchups he wants on the perimeter—and that’s where the Titans have been leakiest.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Predictions

From a side perspective, the matchup favors the home team straight up. Indy’s offensive line has been the steadier unit, and Taylor’s form gives them a reliable baseline. Tennessee’s defensive front is still dangerous, but without consistent back-end support they’ve struggled to close games when forced to defend all 53⅓ yards.

Against the number, divisional dogs in this range have fared well—and Tennessee’s run game plus pace profile keeps a field-goal margin firmly in play. Expect Vrabel to slow this thing down, punt when he has to, and make Indy string together long drives rather than give them freebies over the top.

With both teams comfortable handing off and playing field position, the total trends a shade lower than the market. Fewer total drives and red-zone attempts should pull scoring down toward the low-40s.

Bet: Indianapolis Colts ML (-185), Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-112), Under 43.5 (-110)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

The Carolina Panthers finally put some points on the board in Week 2, but it came via a pass-heavy scramble. Bryce Young aired it out 55 times for a career-high 328 yards and three scores in Arizona, while the ground game mustered just 49 yards and never really tilted the math back in Carolina’s favor. That run/pass split isn’t just noise — it’s becoming a trend for a Panthers offense that’s leaning on volume to move the ball, not explosives, and that exposes a young line to negative plays over four quarters.

Across the field, the Atlanta Falcons looked exactly like they want to look: physical, efficient, and run-first. Bijan Robinson ripped off 143 rushing yards, Tyler Allgeier added chunk gains behind him, and Atlanta piled up 200+ on the ground while asking Michael Penix Jr. to make quick, low-risk throws. That identity travels, but it also plays at home: when the Falcons are on schedule on early downs, Atlanta can live in the play-action and shot concepts that create clean, high-percentage opportunities for Drake London and Kyle Pitts without putting Penix in obvious passing situations.

Just as encouraging for Atlanta was the defensive performance. Minnesota never found rhythm, and once the Falcons squeezed the run on early downs, J.J. McCarthy was forced into longer yardage where the pass rush and coverage tightened. Carolina brings a very different style — more quick game, more RPO, more targets to tight ends and backs — but it’s still a unit that’s struggled to protect consistently and to generate explosives on the ground.

Matchup-wise, the hinge point is whether the Panthers can keep Robinson and Allgeier from controlling tempo. Arizona held up reasonably well against the run last week, but the Falcons’ offensive line is a different test, and Atlanta layers the rushing attack with motions and formations that force linebackers to declare early. If Carolina can’t win first down, its defense will spend too much time on the field and Bryce Young will be asked to play catch-up again — never a great recipe against a team that shortens games.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

Given the trajectories, Atlanta has the cleaner path. The Falcons’ rushing edge combined with a low-variance passing plan reduces turnover risk and shortens the game — exactly how you want to play as a favorite at home. Carolina’s best counter is Young’s quick game and a red-zone spike from the tight ends, but sustaining 10–12 play drives repeatedly while also holding up against the run is a narrow needle to thread.

I lean Falcons to get out in front behind the ground game and let the defense squeeze a Panthers attack that still relies on volume over explosives. With Atlanta comfortable playing slow and Carolina’s run game still searching for answers, this sets up as a lower-scoring script unless short fields show up. Falcons to win and cover in a game that trends under the key totals corridor.

Bet: Atlanta Falcons -225 ML, Atlanta Falcons -5.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-112)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders Odds

The Las Vegas Raiders head east for an early-window kick after a long Monday night that ended with only nine points and just over 200 total yards in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Protection and efficiency were the culprits: drives stalled, explosives were scarce, and the offense spent too much time behind the sticks. That’s a tough way to live on a short week, especially with a cross-country trip against a defense that’s been fast and organized through two games.

The Washington Commanders arrive with extra rest off Thursday night. Even in defeat at Green Bay, the front seven was disruptive and the coverage structure forced long drives. That formula plays well against a Raiders offense that has struggled to finish possessions. Washington also gets the scheduling edge: mini-bye vs. short week and a 1 p.m. ET body-clock game for Vegas.

Injuries reshape the Commanders’ offense. Austin Ekeler’s season-ending Achilles tear removes a chunk of the screen game and a reliable outlet, so expect a slightly more conservative approach built around quick throws to the tight ends and perimeter targets, plus downhill runs with Jacory Croskey-Merritt. At quarterback, Jayden Daniels is day-to-day; if he can’t go, Marcus Mariota’s experience and mobility keep the playbook intact enough to manage the game and avoid the big mistake.

Put it together and the matchup leans toward Washington’s defense and game script. Dan Quinn’s group has the speed to squeeze check-downs, the edge rush to bother Geno Smith, and the depth to hold up even if the offense plays keep-away rather than chase explosives. Vegas needs a sudden jump in pass efficiency or hidden-yardage wins on special teams to flip this.

Raiders vs. Commanders Predictions

With the rest advantage and a friendlier script for their defense, Washington should control tempo and field position. Whether it’s Daniels or Mariota, a low-variance plan is good enough if the defense forces the Raiders to string together 10-play drives again.

The injury to Ekeler and the possible move to Mariota point to Under as the safer totals side. Fewer designed quarterback runs and a heavier dose of underneath throws shorten the game, while Washington’s pass rush can keep Vegas in the teens.

Bet: Washington Commanders -185 ML, Washington Commanders -3.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just walked out of Houston with a gutsy 20–19 win on Monday night, capped by Baker Mayfield’s composed two-minute drill and a goal-line finish from Rachaad White. That drive felt like a proof-of-concept for this offense: a veteran quarterback who’ll take what’s there, two downhill backs (White and rookie Bucky Irving) that keep the script balanced, and just enough chain-moving from Mike Evans and the supporting cast to tilt close games. Underneath it all, the run game mattered—Tampa churned out 169 rushing yards on 30 attempts, which is exactly the way you protect a lead and protect a defense on a short week.

New York is hunting for stability after a 30–10 home loss to Buffalo. The score looks lopsided, but there were glimmers. Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor combined for only 83 passing yards, yet the Jets still popped a couple of explosives on the ground—Fields scrambled for 49 and Breece Hall remains one cut from flipping a drive. That mobility element is the wild card for Tampa’s front; if the edge loses contain or the Bucs live in man on third down, Fields can punish them with legs even when the timing isn’t there through the air.

The trenches likely decide it. Buffalo mauled New York for 224 rushing yards at 5.2 per carry, and now the Jets draw a Bucs line that just moved people in Houston. If Todd Bowles can again lean on duo and pin-pull to keep Mayfield in advantageous down-and-distance, Tampa will be able to play from ahead, turn the pass rush loose, and force New York to chase. That’s not the Jets’ comfort zone yet.

There is a scheduling wrinkle: Tampa is coming off a road MNF game and turns around on a short week; the Jets get the extra day and the heat/humidity tax in Florida can turn this into a fourth-quarter attrition test. If this number pushes the Bucs out to a full touchdown, that rest advantage plus the quarterback run game gives the Jets a path to keep it inside the number even if Tampa controls most of the day.

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Macro picture: Tampa Bay is the safer side to win at home. They’re better-coached situationally right now, they’re multiple in the run game, and Mayfield is playing clean, mistake-averse football. In a league where avoiding disasters is half the battle, that profile travels—and it wins at home.

Against the spread, though, New York has live-dog traits at +7. Fields’ rushing threat is a pressure valve on third down, and the Jets’ defense—while humbled by Buffalo—still rallies and tackles well enough to force field goals if the red-zone calls are sharp. Add the Bucs’ short week and the likelihood both offenses stay run-leaning, and you have a game that compresses possessions and creates back-door routes for the underdog.

Total-wise, both recent box scores point to the Under. Tampa’s last two games have played slow and balanced, and the Jets are still searching for a passing identity beyond play-action shots to Garrett Wilson. If explosives are sporadic and both staffs are content to punt from midfield, 44.5 is a tall ask.

Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -355 ML, New York Jets +7 (-102), Under 44.5 (-112)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ offense has yet to find its rhythm, and it showed in the home loss to Seattle. Aaron Rodgers threw for 203 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions while taking three sacks, and the run game topped out at 72 yards. The bright spot was explosive plays from Jaylen Warren (86 receiving yards) and Calvin Austin (22-yard TD), but sustaining drives was an issue as Pittsburgh finished with just two offensive touchdowns.

The New England Patriots arrive with surprising momentum after beating Miami. Drake Maye was poised and efficient (19-of-23 for 230 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), the staff mixed in Rhamondre Stevenson as a receiver (88 yards), and the defense compressed the pocket on Tua Tagovailoa, piling up five sacks even while allowing chunk plays to Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. That’s the blueprint the Patriots will try to replicate: keep everything in front on defense, win situational downs on offense, and avoid giveaways.

The trench matchup is the fulcrum. Pittsburgh’s protection must hold up against a New England front that just harassed Miami, or Mike Tomlin will again be chasing the game script. Conversely, the Steelers’ pass rush gets a friendlier setup than it had versus Seattle and should be able to force Maye into longer third downs. If Pittsburgh can keep the Patriots one-dimensional and limit yards after the catch, field position tilts back toward the home team.

This also profiles as a possessions-limited game. Both teams have leaned on underneath throws and backs in the passing game, and neither has consistently produced explosive runs. With red-zone drives likely to be deliberate, the total asks a lot unless turnovers turn into short fields.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Predictions

Small number, home edge, and a defensive bounce-back steer me to Pittsburgh. Rodgers should be cleaner against a secondary that can be nicked outside if the pass pro cooperates, and the Steelers’ front is capable of muddying Maye’s reads enough to steal a possession or two.

Given the way both offenses are operating, I’m also leaning Under. New England’s plan on defense is designed to force long drives, while Pittsburgh’s defense tends to tighten in the red zone at home. Unless we get multiple short fields, this total is a touch high.

Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -122 ML, Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-108)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Life without Joe Burrow begins in earnest for the Cincinnati Bengals, and Zac Taylor’s first draft of the plan looked like this: keep Jake Browning’s plate small and let the stars do the heavy lifting. Against Jacksonville, Cincinnati leaned on quick-game throws to Ja’Marr Chase (a monstrous target magnet) and a steady dose of Chase Brown on the ground.

It worked well enough to squeeze out a road win, but Browning still finished with modest volume and a couple of dicey moments when forced beyond his first read. Expect a similarly managed script here, especially in a loud building against a pressure-heavy front.

The Minnesota Vikings just took their lumps against Atlanta, where the offense never found rhythm and protection issues snowballed. Now it’s Carson Wentz under center with J.J. McCarthy sidelined, and Jordan Mason stepping into a larger role with Aaron Jones Sr. out.

The immediate directive for Kevin O’Connell is clear: protect the quarterback with the run game and a quicker tempo, and let Justin Jefferson tilt the field when the look is right. Minnesota’s defense, meanwhile, has shown teeth—Atlanta needed 39 rushes to finish the job—so Brian Flores should feel emboldened to heat up Browning and test Cincinnati’s communication.

Stylistically, this sets up as a field-position game. Cincinnati wants to live in manageable second/third downs and avoid obvious passing situations; Minnesota wants to shorten the game, lean on Mason, and take selective shots to Jefferson. Both paths funnel toward conservative decision-making in the red zone, more punts than fireworks, and a total that struggles to escape the low 40s.

If there’s a hinge point, it’s pass protection. The Vikings can create free runners with Flores’ simulated pressures, and Browning was far less comfortable when Jacksonville pushed the pocket. On the other side, Wentz is volatile, but a defined, play-action-heavy plan can keep him out of the hero-ball traps—especially at home with the crowd on his side.

Bengals vs. Vikings Predictions

Minnesota as a short home underdog is appealing in a backup-QB matchup where the Vikings have the better pass rush and the best offensive player on the field in Jefferson. With Wentz taking the controls of a trimmed-down script and Mason helping control tempo, Minnesota has the profile to win a rock fight or stay inside one score late. Lean Vikings against the spread.

Given the way both staffs are likely to call it—run rate up, explosives limited, and a premium on avoiding the catastrophic mistake—the number looks a touch high. My favorite angle is the Under, with a smaller position on Minnesota + points in what should be a possession-by-possession game.

Bet: Minnesota Vikings (-166), Vikings -3 (-118), Under 41.5 (-110)

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ offense looked far more balanced in the loss at Cincinnati. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns (two picks) and spread the ball to Parker Washington and a deep receiver room, while Travis Etienne ran efficiently and gave the Jaguars a real play-action threat. Even in defeat, Jacksonville protected well (only one sack allowed) and finished drives, a good sign with a retooling Houston defense coming to town.

The Houston Texans’ defense has been the story—sound structure, rally tackling, and limited explosives in coverage. Even so, the Texans were on the field a lot on Monday night and now turn around on a short week. They also bled chunk gains on the ground versus Tampa Bay, which opens the door for Jacksonville to lean on Etienne and their RPO/quicks to keep CJ Stroud and a struggling Texans offense pinned to the sideline.

That Texans offense is the concern. Through two games, the third-year quarterback has not had much help up front or at the skill spots. Against Tampa Bay, Houston mustered 19 points with modest success rates on early downs and too many empty possessions. On the road against a Jaguars front that can heat up in passing situations, sustaining long drives again will be a challenge.

Put together: rest/spot favors the home side, Jacksonville can stress Houston’s run fits, and the Texans’ current offensive ceiling makes a shootout less likely unless short fields pop up.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

Jacksonville should control game flow with the run game and quick passing, forcing Houston to play left-handed on second/third-and-long. If the Jags stay ahead of the chains, they’ll get the better looks they want for Lawrence while keeping their defense fresh.

Houston’s defense is good enough to keep this close, but the short week and the Texans’ red-zone/third-down issues tilt the margin. Expect Jacksonville to grind out a lower-tempo win with Etienne featured and a few timely play-action shots.

Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -110 ML, Jacksonville Jaguars -0.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-112)

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds

The New Orleans Saints head to the Pacific Northwest off a 26–21 loss to San Francisco in which Spencer Rattler was efficient (25/34, 207 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) and Alvin Kamara handled 21 carries for 99 yards. That balance kept the Saints within a score, but they still finished with just 207 passing yards and 121 rushing yards, and they allowed four sacks on Rattler. Now they face a Seattle front that just harassed Pittsburgh and picked off Aaron Rodgers twice.

The Seattle Seahawks bounced back in style at Pittsburgh, winning 31–17 behind 295 yards from Sam Darnold and an explosive ground game (Kenneth Walker: 13 carries, 105 yards, TD). Eight different Seahawks caught passes, led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/103) and Cooper Kupp (7/90), underscoring how versatile this offense can be when protection holds up. Defensively, Seattle kept the Steelers to 195 passing yards and 72 rushing yards and tightened in the red zone.

Matchup-wise, Seattle’s ability to win on early downs should tilt the time of possession. The Saints are leaning on Kamara and a short passing game; that plays into the hands of a Seahawks defense that just limited Pittsburgh’s backs to 3.4 yards per carry and created negative plays. Cross-country travel and the Lumen Field environment also raise the degree of difficulty for a young New Orleans quarterback.

On the other side, Seattle can stress New Orleans horizontally with Walker and vertically with Kupp/JSN shot plays off play-action. The Saints’ defense is sound, but long, methodical Seattle drives plus a muted Saints pace point to fewer total possessions.

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions

Seattle has the cleaner offensive floor and the better turnover profile. With the crowd behind them, expect the Seahawks to control the script with the run and put Rattler into must-throw downs. New Orleans can move the ball, but stringing together 10-play drives in this building is a tall order.

Given Seattle’s preference to lean on Walker when leading and the Saints’ conservative approach, the total still sits a touch high. A grindy, field-position game favors the home chalk and the Under.

Bet: Seattle Seahawks -380 ML, Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-112)

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds

The Los Angeles Chargers return home at 2-0 with a defense that just bullied Las Vegas, holding the Raiders to nine points and 150 passing yards while Justin Herbert operated mistake-free. Jim Harbaugh’s group looks organized: clean pockets more often, fewer penalties, and a secondary that’s limiting explosives and tackling well in space. Even without a dominant run game, the Chargers are stringing together efficient, balanced drives and finishing in the red zone.

The Denver Broncos are coming off a gut-punch loss at Indianapolis, but the offense showed plenty of competence with Bo Nix spreading it around and J.K. Dobbins giving them real juice on early downs. The problem was on the other side: Denver’s front seven got gashed by Jonathan Taylor (165 yards) and gave up 316 through the air to Daniel Jones. That combination—leaky run fits and soft zones behind them—won’t fly against Herbert’s patience and ball placement.

Matchup-wise, Los Angeles has edges at quarterback, along the offensive line, and in the secondary. The Chargers’ corners jammed and rerouted Las Vegas’ wideouts all night; if they force Denver into long down-and-distance, Nix will be dealing with a disguised pressure package that just frustrated a veteran in Geno Smith. Expect Harbaugh to lean on tempo control and a quick-game script that neutralizes Denver’s pass rush and keeps the defense fresh.

Pace also points to a lower total. Los Angeles are methodical under Harbaugh, and Denver’s best path is to protect Nix with Dobbins and the screen game. Fewer explosives + more sustained drives = fewer possessions.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

The lean is Chargers -2.5. Los Angeles are playing the cleaner football, Herbert is the best player on the field, and Denver’s defensive issues in the middle of the field are tailor-made for LA’s option routes and tight-end usage. Add in the Chargers’ defensive cohesion and home field, and this is a fair number I’m willing to lay.

For the total, I prefer the Under 45.5. The Chargers’ defense is tackling at a high level and forcing opponents to string together long drives, while Harbaugh’s offense is happy to win the field-position game. Denver should move it a bit, but finishing drives will be tougher against this red-zone unit.

If you want a moneyline to anchor parlays, tie in Chargers -142.

Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -142 ML, Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-105)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Odds

The Chicago Bears limp into Week 3 off a 52–21 defeat in Detroit, a game where the defense was gashed at every level. Chicago surrendered 334 passing yards and 177 rushing yards (5.9 YPC), and the front couldn’t get off the field. There were a few bright spots — Caleb Williams pushed the ball to Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet and the Bears found chunks on the ground at times — but protection broke down (four sacks allowed) and the offense wasn’t efficient enough to chase from behind.

The Dallas Cowboys come home after a 40–37 overtime win over the Giants. Dak Prescott piled up 361 passing yards, leaning on CeeDee Lamb and a deep group of pass-catchers, while the ground game did its part with 97 rushing yards from Javonte Williams. Even with the scoreboard chaos in New York, Dallas’ offense looked multiple and comfortable, mixing tempo, play-action and quick game to keep the chains moving.

This matchup leans toward Dallas’ passing edge against a Bears secondary that just got stretched vertically and horizontally by Detroit. If Jaylon Johnson can’t go or is limited, that’s a major problem against Lamb and Jake Ferguson over the middle. On the other side, the Cowboys’ pass rush should create the kind of muddy pocket that gives a rookie quarterback trouble — especially behind a line that just yielded four sacks.

Chicago can absolutely score — Williams is fearless and OC Shane Waldron will dial up answers — but the cleaner operation, better protection plan, and higher-end weapons live on the Dallas sideline. Add in the coaching and special-teams edge at home, and the Cowboys have multiple paths to victory.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Predictions

Dallas has the more stable offense, the superior pass rush, and the matchup advantages on the perimeter. If you prefer the spread, laying the short number with the Cowboys is reasonable, but the moneyline keeps you covered in a one-score grinder.

Lean Under if this tilts toward a Cowboys script (front four heat, run game, fewer possessions). Chicago’s defense just gave up explosives, but Dallas is comfortable winning methodically when ahead, and that tends to squeeze total plays.

Bet: Dallas Cowboys ML (+100), Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-112), Under 49.5 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

The San Francisco 49ers just went on the road and handled New Orleans 26–21, led by a clean, controlled passing day from Mac Jones (279 yards, 3 TD) and a classic “move-the-chains” outing from Christian McCaffrey (110 scrimmage yards with a score). The defense tilted the game by generating three interceptions and three sacks, and it tightened up in the red zone when it had to. That’s the 49ers’ blueprint: limit explosives, make quarterbacks be accurate for four quarters, and let their diverse skill group finish drives.

The Arizona Cardinals are also 2–0 after beating Carolina 27–22. Kyler Murray was efficient (17/25, 220 yards, TD) and added designed-run value, while Trey McBride again looked like a weekly mismatch (6/78/1). The Cards’ defense, though, surrendered 328 passing yards on 55 attempts to Bryce Young and allowed Carolina to live on quick-game completions. Arizona stopped the run (49 rush yards allowed), but the secondary was softened by volume.

Matchup-wise, this sets up well for San Francisco’s passing script. The Panthers peppered the middle of the field and underneath windows against Arizona; that’s where the 49ers thrive with McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall on option routes and crossers. If the Cards tilt coverage toward Marvin Harrison Jr.-like threats on offense, the Niners’ pass rush can pin its ears back and hunt obvious downs—exactly how they got to Spencer Rattler last week. Arizona’s best counter is Murray’s legs plus James Conner’s downhill game to stay ahead of the sticks and feature McBride against zone.

Pace and finishing drives point slightly lower. San Francisco operates methodically, and Arizona’s run emphasis shortens games. Both teams just played totals of 47 and 49 points respectively, but those came with short fields created by turnovers; if giveaways regress, possessions shrink.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions

I lean to the home side. San Francisco is playing cleaner football on both lines, and its coverage looks better equipped to disguise and rally than Carolina’s was. The 49ers’ offense also presents more answers if Arizona loads the box—McCaffrey in the pass game and layered route concepts that punish spot-drop zones.

For the total, Under 44.5 is live. The Niners are comfortable stringing together long drives, and Arizona’s best path is to run and take the air out of the game. If San Francisco’s red-zone defense carries over, we can trade a couple of touchdowns for field goals and still stay under.

Bet: San Francisco 49ers -135 ML, San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs arrive at 0–2 after another grind-it-out loss, this time 20–17 to Philadelphia. The defense has quietly done its job—holding Jalen Hurts to 101 passing yards while allowing 3.6 yards per rush—but the offense hasn’t hit its explosive gear. Patrick Mahomes went 16/29 for 187 yards with a TD and INT, and the biggest chunk plays came with his legs (7 rushes for 66 yards). With fewer freebies downfield, Kansas City has leaned on Travis Kelce underneath and a controlled tempo.

The New York Giants just played a 40–37 overtime thriller in Dallas and showed how dangerous their passing game can be. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards (30/41) with three scores, and Malik Nabers/Wan’Dale Robinson combined for 309 yards. The flip side: New York still allowed 343 passing yards to Dak Prescott and 232 scrimmage yards to Dallas’ top trio (Prescott/Javonte Williams/CeeDee Lamb). Explosive offense kept them in it, but the secondary and tackling in space remain red flags.

Matchup-wise, Kansas City’s pressure and man coverage are a different ask than Dallas’ zone-heavy looks. Steve Spagnuolo will make Wilson decode pressure, hot routes, and single coverage all night; if those boundary shots aren’t there, the Giants may have to be patient and drive the long way. Offensively, the Chiefs should find friendlier matchups for Kelce on third down and can stress New York’s linebackers with Kareem Hunt/Isiah Pacheco in the screen and option game—without needing a full-on shootout.

Pace and style also lean modestly. Kansas City’s offense has been methodical through two weeks, and the defense has done enough to squeeze possessions. If the Giants’ protection wobbles under blitz, drives turn into field goals and punts instead of 60-yard haymakers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Predictions

On a neutral, this number looks fair, but the defensive edge—and coaching edge—tilts toward Kansas City. The Chiefs’ rush/pressure packages should limit New York’s explosives and force Wilson into a quick-game script. That’s where Kansas City’s tackling and third-down defense shine.

Offensively, Kansas City doesn’t need a fireworks show to separate. Expect Mahomes-to-Kelce to control the middle, a few designed runs to punish man coverage, and enough red-zone efficiency to put this away in the fourth.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -285 ML, Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-105), Under 45.5 (-112)

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

The Detroit Lions smashed the Bears 52–21 and looked like the top-five offense we expected: clean pockets for Jared Goff, a steady diet of quick-game rhythm, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ burst stressing second-level defenders. The concern is the step up in class. Baltimore is a different animal up front and can muddy Goff’s picture with disguise and simulated pressure, even if a couple of key pieces on the back end are still working through bumps and bruises.

The Baltimore Ravens rolled Cleveland 41–17, but the box score was louder than the underlying play. Short fields (blocked punt, takeaways) did a lot of the scoring heavy lifting, and the offense finished with modest yardage. That said, Lamar Jackson looks extremely comfortable in Todd Monken’s system. Against man coverage and blitz—Detroit leans into both—Jackson has been lethal, and the downfield pairings with Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins give Baltimore true explosive capacity.

Detroit’s defense is hyper-aggressive and wants to win with pressure and man. That’s great… unless the QB is Jackson, who punishes single-high looks and converts chaos into chunk plays. On the other side, Detroit’s spacing game travels; if Baltimore’s secondary isn’t 100%, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gibbs can string together explosives on crossers, angle routes, and screens.

Both teams are comfortable operating with tempo when necessary and are sharp in the red zone. If either side jumps ahead early, this can turn into a volley of explosives rather than a grind-fest.

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions

Numbers-wise, the spread feels a tick inflated after those Week 2 scorelines. Baltimore owns the higher defensive ceiling and the best player on the field (Jackson), so the moneyline leans Ravens. But Detroit’s offense is built to keep this within one score, and the matchup dynamics point to points.

Bet: Baltimore Ravens -225 ML, Detroit Lions +4.5 (-108), Over 51.5 (-115)

NFL Week 3 Best Bets

The following is our best bets for NFL Week 3:

• Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Giants (-105)
• Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Broncos (-110)
• Lions vs. Ravens Over 51.5 (-115)

Kansas City has been methodical on offense but elite on defense, and this matchup flips in their favor compared to Dallas’ zone-heavy looks the Giants just shredded. Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure + man coverage should force Russell Wilson into quick-game, where KC can cap explosives. Mahomes-to-Kelce plus screen/option looks against NYG linebackers is enough to clear the number.

Los Angeles is simply cleaner right now. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are protecting the ball, winning at the line, and sitting on opponents in the red zone. Denver’s run fits/leaky zones were exposed, and Justin Herbert’s patience should punish the soft spots. With edges at QB, OL, and secondary cohesion, -2.5 is fair.

Detroit–Baltimore has shootout ingredients. Lamar Jackson is thriving against man/blitz and Todd Monken is unlocking verticals; Detroit’s offense speaks for itself after a 52-point explosion in Week 2. If the Ravens’ secondary isn’t fully healthy, Amon-Ra/Gibbs add YAC juice. Both sides have red-zone chops—points, please.

If you follow our NFL best bets for Week 3 and put all three wagers into a parlay, then at the combined odds of about +596, you would turn a $100 bet into roughly $696 total payout ($596 profit). Also, take a look at our College Football parlay of the week for more multi-bet action.