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Illinois Fighting Illini

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College FootballSat 10 Oct
Illinois Fighting Illini
at
Michigan State Spartans
SpreadTotalMoneyILL-2.5U 47.5-135MSU+2.5O 47.5+114
Our call

Our number has Michigan State by 4.7. The market has it as a 2.5-point underdog. Take Michigan State +2.5.

Illinois at Michigan St · 10 OctMichigan State +2.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionIllinois at Michigan St prediction

Favored eight times in 2025, the Illinois Fighting Illini covered six, pushed once and missed once; only nine FBS teams covered more often as favorites. Getting points was a different team: one cover in four.

Laying points worked

Illinois went 8-4 and covered 7 of 12, with one push. As favorites the Illini went 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 against the spread. Among the covers: 45-19 at Duke, laying 2.5, and 38-0 over Western Michigan at -27.5. The push was 20-13 over Northwestern at -7. The one miss was also the one favorite loss, 10-27 at Wisconsin as 8.5-point favorites at -360.

The Illini 2025 regular season, game by game2025-08-29 v Western Illinois Leathernecks 52-32025-09-06 at Duke Blue Devils 45-192025-09-13 v Western Michigan Broncos 38-02025-09-20 at Indiana Hoosiers 10-632025-09-27 v USC Trojans 34-322025-10-04 at Purdue Boilermakers 43-272025-10-11 v Ohio State Buckeyes 16-342025-10-25 at Washington Huskies 25-422025-11-01 v Rutgers Scarlet Knights 35-132025-11-15 v Maryland Terrapins 24-62025-11-22 at Wisconsin Badgers 10-272025-11-29 v Northwestern Wildcats 20-13Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
8-4 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Home first

We would start any Illinois read at home. The Illini went 6-1 at home and covered five, with the Northwestern push; ten FBS teams had a better home cover rate. Backed on the home moneyline, they returned 1.72 units over six priced games. Away they went 2-3, covered two, and lost 1.9 units over five priced games.

The Illini at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (7)won 6 (85.7%)covered 5 of 6 (83.3%)Away (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 2 of 5 (40.0%)Favorite (8)won 7 (87.5%)covered 6 of 7 (85.7%)Underdog (4)won 1 (25.0%)covered 1 of 4 (25.0%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Getting points

As underdogs Illinois was 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. The win was 34-32 over USC at +200 as 6.5-point underdogs. The losses were 10-63 at Indiana, 16-34 to Ohio State with 15.5 points and 25-42 at Washington. Nine FBS teams had a worse underdog cover rate. Across the 11 priced games, the Illini moneyline closed 0.17 units down.

One unit on the Illini to win, every game0+1+2-0.17 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 11 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

The last four Illinois games all went under, seven unders in total.

The season ended in the Music City Bowl, a 30-28 win over Tennessee.

Questions and answers

Did Illinois cover as a favorite in 2025?

Six times in eight, with one push. Only nine FBS teams covered more often when favored.

Could Illinois win as an underdog in 2025?

Once in four tries, 34-32 over USC, which was also the only underdog cover.

Were the Illini a good home bet in 2025?

5-1-1 against the spread at home, and 1.72 units up on the moneyline.

Past games

  1. Purdue at Illinois · 3 OctOur number has Illinois by 14.2.
  2. Illinois at Ohio State · 26 SepIllinois +27.5.

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