Missouri St Bears

The Bears covered 9 of 13 road spreads in 2025-26 while winning three of those games; only 27 Division I teams covered more often away. February was the clearest case: seven defeats, four covers.

Road games

Missouri State’s road record was 3-10. Its road cover record was 9-4, 69.2%. Backed to win, the 13 road moneylines lost 6.16 units, so the points paid and the price did not.

February shows it. The Bears lost all seven games and still covered four, three of them on the road by small margins: 79-76 at Liberty getting 9.5, 70-67 at Florida International getting 3.5, 86-81 at Sam Houston getting 6.5.

At home

At home it reversed: 11-7 straight up but 7 covers in 15. February’s home losses came as favorites, 79-78 to Louisiana Tech at -205 and 76-67 to Delaware at -440.

The season

January was the best month: 6-4, seven covers in ten and 1.61 units, with an 84-75 win at New Mexico State at +230 and both New Mexico State and UTEP beaten twice, at home and on the road, with a cover each time. Over 34 games the Bears went 16-18 and beat the number 18 times in 31, 58.1%. As underdogs they covered 9 of 13; 33 Division I teams had a better underdog rate. One unit on all 31 priced games lost 6.2.

Opponents

Louisiana Tech won all three meetings by a combined six points, the last 69-66 in the Conference USA semifinal. Florida International lost two of three and Missouri State covered all three. In that tournament the Bears also beat Liberty 77-69 at +200.

The total

Nineteen overs and 12 unders, 61.3%. Four teams shared that over rate and 29 topped it, which makes the over a modest lean for Missouri State games.

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