Alabama St Hornets

One game held up the Hornets’ 2025-26 moneyline: a 77-74 win at UAB on 11 November at +1500, worth 15 units. Over 30 priced games the season still finished 1.27 down.

The UAB night

Alabama State were 19.5-point underdogs at UAB and won by three. That single result made November an 11.3-unit month despite a 3-5 record. Every month after it lost money: December 0-5 and 4 units, January 3.81, February 1.76 and March 3.

Without the UAB game the season’s moneyline would have finished 16.27 units down, over the other 29 priced games.

Favorites who lost

The Hornets were favored 13 times and won only 6. Backing them each time cost 4.55 units; 17 Division I teams lost more as favorites and one lost the same. The last three games of the season were all defeats as favorites: Southern 71-64 at -115, Grambling 65-63 at -142, both at home, and Alcorn State 77-65 at -375 in the SWAC tournament’s first round.

As underdogs they won 3 of 18 and the 17 priced games made 3.28; without UAB they would have lost 11.72.

Home and away

On the road they were 4-15 and covered 8 of 19, yet the 18 priced road games made 2.96 units, again the UAB game. At home they were 5-4, covered 4 of 8, and lost 2.52.

13 covers in 31

Alabama State’s cover rate was 41.9%, with 58 teams below it. As big road underdogs they covered at UAB, New Mexico and Missouri, and missed by wide margins at Florida State, 101-64 getting 24.5, at Cincinnati, 88-51 getting 21.5, and at Mississippi State, 94-56 getting 17.5.

The SWAC

Bethune-Cookman, Grambling and Southern each won both meetings, and Alabama State covered one of the six. Mississippi Valley State lost twice, both covered.

Questions and answers