Fresno St Bulldogs

Fresno State covered 21 of 30 spreads in 2025-26 while winning 13 of 32 games; three Division I teams beat that cover rate, none matched it. Backing the Bulldogs to win lost 9.98 units.

Covering without winning

Fresno State’s 70% cover rate sat behind only three teams in Division I. Its record was 13-19, and the 30 priced games lost 9.98 units; 50 teams lost more. The covers kept coming in defeat: 89-87 at Cal State Northridge getting 3.5, 66-65 at home to Nevada getting 4.5, 91-78 at Utah State getting 21.5, 80-78 at home to New Mexico getting 9.5.

February was the purest case: 2-6 straight up, six covers in eight, 4.88 units lost on the moneyline.

At home

At home the Bulldogs beat the number in 12 of 16, 75%, behind seven Division I teams and level with four. Home underdog wins paid: 75-74 over Utah Valley at +165, 79-69 over Colorado State at +164 and 80-78 over Stephen F. Austin at +125. The 16 home moneylines made 0.98.

Away it was 2-10, and the 12 road moneylines lost 8.96; 27 teams lost more.

Favorite and underdog

As favorites they covered 7 of 9, a rate 11 teams beat. As underdogs, 21 games, they won 5 and covered 14, while the underdog moneylines lost 9.05.

Mountain West opponents

Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State each beat Fresno State twice and failed to cover either time. Colorado State won two of three, the last 67-63 in the Mountain West tournament, and Fresno covered all three. Air Force lost both meetings, by 17 and 30.

The total

Nineteen unders and 12 overs, 61.3%, with 41 Division I teams ahead of that under rate and six level with it. The lean came from road and neutral games, 11 unders in 15; at home it was 8 and 8.

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