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College Basketball

North Carolina Tar Heels

College Basketball

The Tar Heels did not lose at home in 2025-26, 18-0, and a unit on them in each priced home game made 6.31, a sum only five Division I teams topped. Away from Chapel Hill they were 4-6.

18-0, and paid for it

North Carolina won all 18 home games. The moneyline was posted for 15 of them and returned 6.31 units, most of it from two home wins as underdogs: Duke 71-68 on 7 February at +220, and Louisville 77-74 at +160. Against the spread they were 12-6 at home.

The Heels at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (18)won 18 (100.0%)covered 12 of 18 (66.7%)Away (10)won 4 (40.0%)covered 5 of 10 (50.0%)Favorite (21)won 19 (90.5%)covered 12 of 21 (57.1%)Underdog (11)won 5 (45.5%)covered 7 of 11 (63.6%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The underdog record

The Tar Heels were underdogs 11 times, won 5 and covered 7. One unit on them in each returned 3.8. Beside Duke and Louisville, the wins came at Kentucky 67-64 at +245, at Virginia 85-80 at +235, and at Syracuse at +120.

One unit on the Heels to win, every game0+2+4+6+5.28 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 29 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The road

Away from home they were 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread, and the ten priced road games came to 0.18 units, close to nothing either way. The worst stretch was two road games in January: beaten 95-90 at Stanford as -198 favorites, then 84-78 at California at -305, three days apart.

19 covers in 32

Over 32 games North Carolina covered 19 times and missed 13, 59.4%; 44 Division I teams covered more often and seven matched it. December was 7-0 with five covers and 3.4 units, and February 6-2 with 3.6; across all 29 priced games the moneyline made 5.28.

The Heels 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-11-03 v Central Arkansas Bears 94-542025-11-07 v Kansas Jayhawks 87-742025-11-11 v Radford Highlanders 89-742025-11-14 v North Carolina Central Eagles 97-532025-11-18 v Navy Midshipmen 73-612025-11-25 v St. Bonaventure Bonnies 85-702025-11-27 v Michigan State Spartans 58-742025-12-02 at Kentucky Wildcats 67-642025-12-07 v Georgetown Hoyas 81-612025-12-13 v South Carolina Upstate Spartans 80-622025-12-16 v East Tennessee State Buccaneers 77-582025-12-20 v Ohio State Buckeyes 71-702025-12-22 v East Carolina Pirates 99-512025-12-30 v Florida State Seminoles 79-662026-01-03 at SMU Mustangs 83-972026-01-10 v Wake Forest Demon Deacons 87-842026-01-14 at Stanford Cardinal 90-952026-01-17 at California Golden Bears 78-842026-01-21 v Notre Dame Fighting Irish 91-692026-01-24 at Virginia Cavaliers 85-802026-01-31 at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 91-752026-02-02 v Syracuse Orange 87-772026-02-07 v Duke Blue Devils 71-682026-02-10 at Miami Hurricanes 66-752026-02-14 v Pittsburgh Panthers 79-652026-02-17 at NC State Wolfpack 58-822026-02-21 at Syracuse Orange 77-642026-02-23 v Louisville Cardinals 77-742026-02-28 v Virginia Tech Hokies 89-822026-03-03 v Clemson Tigers 67-632026-03-07 at Duke Blue Devils 61-762026-03-12 v Clemson Tigers 79-80Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
24-8 in 32 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The ACC

Clemson split two games with them and the Tar Heels covered both, the second an 80-79 defeat in the ACC tournament quarterfinal as 2.5-point underdogs. Duke also split, and North Carolina covered both of those too.

The total

Seventeen unders and 15 overs in 32 games, while North Carolina scored 79.78 a game and allowed 71.31; the totals gave no lean.

In the NCAA tournament they lost their first game, 82-78 to VCU.

Questions and answers

Did North Carolina lose at home in 2025-26?

No: 18-0, 12-6 against the spread, and 6.31 units on the moneyline from the 15 priced games.

Were the Tar Heels worth backing as underdogs?

In 2025-26, yes: 5-6 straight up, 7 covers in 11, and 3.8 units.

How did North Carolina do on the road?

4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread, with January defeats at Stanford and California as favorites.

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