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NFL Predictions and Picks

Free NFL predictions and picks for every game, every week. Each one sets our number against the spread and the total, and says bet or pass.

2026 season

Upcoming games

Sunday 11 October13 games
NFLSun 11 Oct
San Francisco 49ers
at
Seattle Seahawks
SpreadTotalMoneySF+2.5U 47.5+124SEA-2.5O 47.5-148
Our call

Seattle was 125 points better than San Francisco last season and lays only 3 at home. Take the Seahawks.

49ers at Seahawks · 11 OctSeahawks -3
Kyle ParkerRead the prediction49ers at Seahawks prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Chicago Bears
at
Green Bay Packers
SpreadTotalMoneyCHI-2.5U 45.5-130GB+2.5O 45.5+110
Our call

Take Green Bay +2.5. Last season's rates make the Packers the favourite at home, and the market has them as underdogs.

Bears at Packers · 11 OctPackers +2.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionBears at Packers prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Cincinnati Bengals
at
Miami Dolphins
SpreadTotalMoneyCIN-7U 42.5-345MIA+7O 42.5+275
Our call

Take Miami +7. The market has Cincinnati winning in Miami by more than either season's scores say it should.

Bengals at Dolphins · 11 OctDolphins +7
Tony PhillipsRead the predictionBengals at Dolphins prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Indianapolis Colts
at
Pittsburgh Steelers
SpreadTotalMoneyIND+2.5U 44.5+114PIT-2.5O 44.5-135
Our call

Take the over 44.5. Both seasons' scoring puts this game above the number, and last season's by more than a field goal.

Colts at Steelers · 11 OctOver 44.5
Tony PhillipsRead the predictionColts at Steelers prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
New York Giants
at
Washington Commanders
SpreadTotalMoneyNYG+3U 43.5+140WSH-3O 43.5-166
Our call

Washington lays 3.5 after finishing last season 37 points worse than New York. Take the Giants and the points.

Giants at Commanders · 11 OctGiants +3.5
Kyle ParkerRead the predictionGiants at Commanders prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Denver Broncos
at
Los Angeles Chargers
SpreadTotalMoneyDEN-3.5U 42.5-185LAC+3.5O 42.5+154
Our call

Denver went from getting 2.5 to laying 3.5, and my number is Broncos by 1.6. No bet on this game.

Broncos at Chargers · 11 OctNo bet
Rick AustinRead the predictionBroncos at Chargers prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Detroit Lions
at
Arizona Cardinals
SpreadTotalMoneyDET-4.5U 54.5-225ARI+4.5O 54.5+185
Our call

No bet on Arizona +4.5. The line has moved four points since this page took the Cardinals at +8.5, and the value went with it.

Lions at Cardinals · 11 OctNo bet
Tony PhillipsRead the predictionLions at Cardinals prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Baltimore Ravens
at
Atlanta Falcons
SpreadTotalMoneyBAL-2.5U 45.5-142ATL+2.5O 45.5+120
Our call

Baltimore has come down from 4.5 to 3, and my number is Ravens by 2.4. Still no bet on this game.

Ravens at Falcons · 11 OctNo bet
Rick AustinRead the predictionRavens at Falcons prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Cleveland Browns
at
New York Jets
SpreadTotalMoneyCLE+2.5U 39.5+110NYJ-2.5O 39.5-130
Our call

Take Cleveland +2.5 and the over 39.5. Last season's rates make the Browns half a point better than the Jets, in a game worth about 43 poin…

Browns at Jets · 11 OctBrowns +2.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionBrowns at Jets prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Houston Texans
at
Tennessee Titans
SpreadTotalMoneyHOU-7U 39.5-345TEN+7O 39.5+275
Our call

Take the over 39.5. What Houston and Tennessee scored and allowed last season adds up to 43 points, and every book has 39.5.

Texans at Titans · 11 OctOver 39.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionTexans at Titans prediction
NFLSun 11 Oct
Minnesota Vikings
at
New Orleans Saints
SpreadTotalMoneyMIN-1.5U 42.5-125NO+1.5O 42.5+105
Our call

The total fell from 44.5 to 42, and my number is 40.2. The under is no longer a bet, and neither is the side.

Vikings at Saints · 11 OctNo bet
Rick AustinRead the predictionVikings at Saints prediction
Monday 12 October1 game
NFLMon 12 Oct
Buffalo Bills
at
Los Angeles Rams
SpreadTotalMoneyBUF+2.5U 54.5+130LAR-2.5O 54.5-155
Our call

Take the under 54.5. Last season's scoring and this season's both put this game at about 50 points.

Bills at Rams · 12 OctUnder 54.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionBills at Rams prediction
Thursday 15 October1 game
Sunday 18 October6 games

NFL teams

One page per game

Every NFL game gets its own prediction page. Some go up early in the week with what is already true: the kickoff, the records, the first line. By kickoff each one is the full prediction: the spread and the total, our number for the game, the gap, and the call.

The call is a pick against the spread, a total, or no bet. Watch the first line of the page. That is where the decision sits, so you never have to dig for it.

The NFL year

Preseason fills August. The regular season runs 18 weeks, from early September to early January, 17 games a team. The playoffs fill January, and the Super Bowl is played in early February. In 2025 that came to 272 regular-season games and 13 in the playoffs.

The NFL yearAugSepOctNovDecJanFebPreseasonRegular seasonPlayoffs
Approximate: preseason in August; 18 weeks of regular season from early September to early January; the playoffs through January and the Super Bowl in early February.

Most of the slate is on Sunday. Thursday and Monday nights get one game each most weeks, and late in the season Saturday games join in.

Reading an NFL line

Three prices for every game. The point spread, which is where most NFL money goes. The total, for the combined score. The moneyline, for the winner alone.

The spread is the one to understand first. Books shade it around 3 and 7, the margins NFL games land on most. Look at where the 2025 lines actually sat: only 15 games were posted at exactly 3 and 9 at exactly 7. Of the 282 games with a line, 253 were posted on a half point, where a push cannot happen. Not one NFL spread pushed all season.

NFL spreads, 2025: how many, and how often the favorite covered0%25%50%75%100%27.7%51.3%Under 35.3%40.0%339.4%47.7%3.5 to 6.53.2%77.8%724.5%44.9%7.5 or moreShare of gamesFavorite covered
282 games with a pre-game spread. Games per band: Under 3 78, 3 15, 3.5 to 6.5 111, 7 9, 7.5 or more 69; pushes 0, left out of the cover rate. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Notice the bars for 3 and 7. With 15 games and 9 games, they are too small to read. The bands either side of them, from 3.5 to 6.5 and from 7.5 up, are where the season’s spreads lived, and favorites covered a little under half of both.

Who beat the number

Covering is not winning. Taking the game and beating the number are separate results, and the teams that cover most are not always the best ones. In 2025 Seattle covered 15 times in 20, playoffs included, the best record in the league. Tampa Bay covered 5 in 17, the worst.

Against the spread, 2025: the six best and the six worstSeattle Seahawks75.0% (15-5)Chicago Bears68.4% (13-6)New England Patriots66.7% (14-7)Jacksonville Jaguars66.7% (12-6)Carolina Panthers61.1% (11-7)Los Angeles Rams60.0% (12-8)Dallas Cowboys37.5% (6-10)Kansas City Chiefs37.5% (6-10)Arizona Cardinals35.3% (6-11)Green Bay Packers35.3% (6-11)Baltimore Ravens35.3% (6-11)Tampa Bay Buccaneers29.4% (5-12)
Share of games each team covered, pushes left out, playoffs included; record in brackets. All 32 teams were ranked. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Here is the tell. Chicago, Jacksonville and Carolina sat near the top; Kansas City and Baltimore sat near the bottom. A season of covers shows where the prices and the teams parted company. Next season starts fresh, which is why we read each game’s line on its own.

Thursday, Sunday, Monday

When a game kicks off changes nothing about the rules, and the 2025 results mostly said so. Sunday’s early and late windows split close to even against the spread. Thursday night was the outlier: favorites covered 6 of 17.

By kickoff, 2025: how often the favorite covered, and how often the game went over0%20%40%60%80%35.3%47.1%Thursday51.1%51.8%Sun early48.6%57.1%Sun late45.5%42.9%Sun night54.5%45.5%Monday35.7%62.5%OtherFavorite coveredWent over
Kickoff in Eastern time; Sunday early includes the morning international games; other days are Saturdays, Fridays and holiday afternoons. Games: Thursday night 17, Sunday early 138, Sunday late 70, Sunday night 22, Monday night 22, Other days 16. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Don’t build a system on 17 games. One season of Thursdays is a lean, not a rule. Sunday night and Monday night leaned to the under, 12 of 21 and 12 of 22; the same caution applies.

Betting the total

The NFL total is a forecast of the combined score, and in 2025 overs came in 148 times against 135 unders. Size did not change that much. Totals under 40 went over 14 times in 31; totals of 52 and up, 7 times in 12.

How often the over came in, by size of total, 20250%20%40%60%80%45.2%Under 4053.6%40 to 43.552.4%44 to 47.552.8%48 to 51.558.3%52 or moreOver
Pushes left out. Games per band: Under 40 31, 40 to 43.5 84, 44 to 47.5 103, 48 to 51.5 53, 52 or more 12. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Scoring moved through the season more than the totals did. The first week and the last were the lowest-scoring of the year: 41.3 points a game in week 1, 39.2 in week 18. The weeks between swung from 42 to 50.

Points per game, week by week, 202501530456041150246349449542645750849946104411431243135014491549164517391844PPoints per game
Both teams combined, regular-season weeks 1 to 18 and the playoffs (P). Season average 46.0. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

So read a total with the week in mind. Late in the season, check who is playing before you take an over, and expect the weather to matter in the open-air parks.

Long shots that landed

In 2025 the favorite won 185 NFL games outright and the underdog 96, with one tie. Most came at short prices: 64 of the 92 with a moneyline paid less than +200. The long ones were rare, and they paid like it.

The longest prices that won, 2025Panthers over Packers, wk 9 (+600, 16-13, as 13.5-pt dog)Panthers over Rams, wk 13 (+425, 31-28, as 10-pt dog)Vikings over Lions, wk 9 (+400, 27-24, as 9.5-pt dog)Dolphins over Bills, wk 10 (+360, 30-13, as 8.5-pt dog)Titans over Cardinals, wk 5 (+340, 22-21, as 7.5-pt dog)Browns over Bengals, wk 18 (+340, 20-18, as 8.5-pt dog)
Underdogs (by the spread) that won outright, by their pre-game moneyline; 92 of the season's outright underdog wins carried a moneyline price. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The biggest was Carolina over Green Bay in week 9, 16-13 while getting 13.5 points, at +600. Carolina did it again in week 13, over the Rams at +425. Seven underdogs won at +340 or longer all season, the six on the chart among them.

How our NFL number is built

Our full NFL predictions build their number from last season: each team’s points scored and allowed per game, set against each other into a margin for the game. That margin goes beside the market’s spread, and a projected score beside its total.

How an NFL call is madeLast season: each team'spoints for and againstSet against each other:our margin for the gameBeside the market'sspread or total2 points or moreapart: bet
Less than 2 points apart is no bet. Stated on our full NFL predictions.

Two points or more apart is a bet; less is no bet. In September our number leans entirely on the season before, and each prediction says which season it uses.

NFL futures and the primetime games

The season-long markets have their own pages: Super Bowl odds and the awards, from the NFL MVP to Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and the top rookie. The primetime games have theirs too: Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

NFL betting tips, the short list

  • Shop the hook. A half point either side of 3 is the most valuable half point in the sport. Take 3.5 over 3 on an underdog when the price allows.
  • Wait for Friday. The official injury reports run from Wednesday to Friday. A line set before them is a line set before the news.
  • Read the late-season totals with care. The last week of 2025 was its lowest-scoring week.
  • Distrust a team’s record against the spread. Last season’s best cover team starts this season at zero.
  • Pass more than you play. Two points of daylight is the bar. Most games do not clear it.

Every team, every game

Each of the 32 teams has its own page, linked on this page, with its schedule and its predictions. Find a team, find its next game, and start with the first line.

Questions and answers

Do NFL spreads push?

Rarely, and in 2025 not once: none of the 282 games with a pre-game spread landed on it. Only 15 lines sat at exactly 3 and 9 at exactly 7; 253 of the 282 were posted on a half point.

How often do NFL underdogs win outright?

In 2025, 96 times against 185 favorite wins, about one game in three, with one tie.

Which NFL team covered the spread most often in 2025?

Seattle, 15 times in 20 with the playoffs, on the way to winning the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay covered least, 5 times in 17.

Past games

  1. Buccaneers at Cowboys · 8 OctBuccaneers +8.5
  2. Falcons at Saints · 5 OctTake the under 47.5 in Falcons at Saints.
  3. Broncos at 49ers · 4 OctSan Francisco is laying 2.5 to a team that had the better season last year.
  4. Cardinals at Giants · 4 OctGive me the Giants +2.5 and the over 44.5, one unit each.
  5. Chargers at Seahawks · 4 OctGive me the Seahawks at -7, one unit, nothing on the total.
  6. Chiefs at Raiders · 4 OctTake the under 47.5 in Chiefs at Raiders.
  7. Colts at Commanders · 4 OctGive me the Colts at -3.5, one unit, nothing on the total.
  8. Cowboys at Texans · 4 OctGive me the Texans at -3, one unit, nothing on the total.
  9. Dolphins at Vikings · 4 OctThe pick is Miami +10.5.
  10. Jaguars at Bengals · 4 OctJacksonville is getting 2.5 in Cincinnati.
Show all 64 past predictions
  1. Jets at Bears · 4 OctTake the over 43, and Chicago -3.5.
  2. Lions at Panthers · 4 OctThe pick is under 51.
  3. Packers at Buccaneers · 4 OctNo bet on Packers at Buccaneers.
  4. Patriots at Bills · 4 OctThe pick is New England +7 where it is dealt, and +6.5 is still a bet.
  5. Rams at Eagles · 4 OctThe pick is Philadelphia +3, with over 43.5 as the second bet.
  6. Titans at Ravens · 4 OctBaltimore has gone from 8.5 to 11.5, and that is too close to my number.
  7. Steelers at Browns · 1 OctPittsburgh is laying 3 in Cleveland.
  8. Eagles at Bears · 28 SepPick the Bears +4.5.
  9. Bengals at Steelers · 27 SepI want Pittsburgh and the points, at +3.5.
  10. Cardinals at 49ers · 27 SepPick: Cardinals +8.5.
  11. Chargers at Bills · 27 SepPick: Chargers +7.5.
  12. Chiefs at Dolphins · 27 SepDolphins +11.5.
  13. Jets at Lions · 27 SepPick: Lions -6.5.
  14. Panthers at Browns · 27 SepGive me Cleveland and the points, and the under alongside it.
  15. Patriots at Jaguars · 27 SepGive me New England and the three.
  16. Raiders at Saints · 27 SepGive me the under 43.5, and nothing else on this game.
  17. Rams at Broncos · 27 SepBroncos +2.5.
  18. Ravens at Cowboys · 27 SepPick the over 52.5.
  19. Seahawks at Commanders · 27 SepPick: Over 40.
  20. Texans at Colts · 27 SepPick the Colts +2.5.
  21. Titans at Giants · 27 SepGive me the Giants and the three, and the over alongside it.
  22. Vikings at Buccaneers · 27 SepBuccaneers +1.5.
  23. Falcons at Packers · 24 SepGreen Bay has come down from 7 to 5.5.
  24. Giants at Rams · 21 SepLos Angeles won 28-6.
  25. Bengals at Texans · 20 SepCincinnati won 20-6 in Houston.
  26. Browns at Buccaneers · 20 SepCleveland won 23-19 in Tampa.
  27. Colts at Chiefs · 20 SepKansas City won 33-30 in overtime.
  28. Commanders at Cowboys · 20 SepDallas won 37-20.
  29. Dolphins at 49ers · 20 SepSan Francisco won 35-13.
  30. Eagles at Titans · 20 SepPhiladelphia won 24-20.
  31. Jaguars at Broncos · 20 SepDenver won 20-13.
  32. Packers at Jets · 20 SepGreen Bay won 20-17 in overtime.
  33. Panthers at Falcons · 20 SepCarolina won 34-3 in Atlanta.
  34. Raiders at Chargers · 20 SepLas Vegas won 26-14.
  35. Saints at Ravens · 20 SepNew Orleans won 24-17 in Baltimore.
  36. Seahawks at Cardinals · 20 SepSeattle won 31-7 in Arizona.
  37. Steelers at Patriots · 20 SepNew England won 20-3.
  38. Vikings at Bears · 20 SepMinnesota won 9-3 in Chicago.
  39. Lions at Bills · 17 SepThe Bills vs Lions recap starts with Josh Allen taking control before Detroit could settle into Thursday night.
  40. Lions at Bills · 17 SepBuffalo was -3 on Sunday night and is -5.5 now.
  41. Broncos at Chiefs · 14 SepStart with the picks worth reviewing.
  42. Bears at Panthers · 13 SepThe Bears vs Panthers recap became an offensive avalanche.
  43. Bills at Texans · 13 SepThe Bills vs Texans recap came down to Josh Allen doing what elite quarterbacks are paid to do.
  44. Browns at Jaguars · 13 SepThe Browns vs Jaguars recap validated Jacksonville’s status as a substantial favorite.
  45. Buccaneers at Bengals · 13 SepThe Buccaneers vs Bengals recap was decided by possession value.
  46. Cardinals at Chargers · 13 SepThe Cardinals vs Chargers recap delivered one of Week 1’s biggest market shocks.
  47. Commanders at Eagles · 13 SepThe Commanders vs Eagles recap delivered a Philadelphia win without a Philadelphia cover.
  48. Cowboys at Giants · 13 SepThe Cowboys vs Giants recap closed Sunday with another favorite going down outright.
  49. Dolphins at Raiders · 13 SepThe Dolphins vs Raiders recap rewarded Las Vegas favorite bettors and anyone expecting Miami’s offense to struggle.
  50. Falcons at Steelers · 13 SepThe Falcons vs Steelers recap belonged to Pittsburgh’s defense.
  51. Jets at Titans · 13 SepThe Jets vs Titans recap rewarded anyone willing to challenge the home favorite.
  52. Saints at Lions · 13 SepThe Lions vs Saints recap produced the clearest distinction between winning a football game and covering a spread.
  53. Packers at Vikings · 13 SepThe Packers vs Vikings recap turned dramatically in the final quarter.
  54. Ravens at Colts · 13 SepThe Ravens vs Colts recap delivered one of Sunday’s cleanest favorite performances.