Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions April 29th 2025

Bucks vs Pacers Game 5: Milwaukee’s Backs Are Against the Wall

Things just got real for the Milwaukee Bucks.

Down 3-1 in their Eastern Conference first-round series against the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee now finds itself without its star guard Damian Lillard—out for the season with a torn Achilles. It’s a brutal blow that leaves Milwaukee scrambling for answers ahead of Tuesday’s Game 5 showdown in Indianapolis.

Lillard’s absence isn’t just a roster change—it’s a seismic shift. The Bucks were already in trouble after getting steamrolled 129-103 in Game 4. Then, halfway through the first quarter, Lillard hit the floor in pain. Hours later, the team confirmed the worst: a complete tear of his left Achilles tendon.

He’ll undergo surgery and is officially out for the remainder of the playoffs.

Doc Rivers Tasked with Reviving the Team’s Spirit

Bucks coach Doc Rivers was visibly shaken after Game 4, not just by the loss, but by the energy vacuum left in Lillard’s absence.

“My job over the next 40 hours is to get us upright again and try to win one game at Indiana and get it back here,” Rivers told reporters. And that’s the mindset Milwaukee needs if it wants to climb back into this series.

This playoff run was meant to be the redemption arc of the Giannis-Lillard era. Last season’s early exit felt like a fluke. Now? It’s threatening to become a pattern.

Lillard’s Setback a Crushing Blow, But Not the End

For Lillard, it’s been a season of highs and health scares. After missing the end of the regular season due to a blood clot in his leg, he returned mid-series—only to suffer a far worse fate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had nothing but praise for his co-star and his resilience.

“He’s one of the mentally toughest guys I’ve ever been around,” Antetokounmpo said. “He’s going to overcome this like he’s overcome everything else.”

And that’s the spirit Milwaukee’s going to have to channel.

Indiana’s Game Plan Is Running on All Cylinders

Indiana’s confidence couldn’t be higher. They’re not just winning—they’re dominating. The Pacers shot a scorching 60.2% from the field in Game 4 and had eight players hit double digits.

Leading the charge was Myles Turner with 23 points, while Tyrese Haliburton delivered an all-around masterclass: 17 points, 15 assists, and eight rebounds. His playmaking is carving up Milwaukee’s defense, and his command of the offense has helped turn Indiana into a well-oiled, fast-paced machine.

“We’re holding each other accountable,” Haliburton said. “That’s a big step for a young team, and we’re taking it.”

Coach Carlisle’s High-Octane Blueprint Is Working

Pacers coach Rick Carlisle made it clear early in the series—if Indiana wanted to beat Milwaukee, they’d need to run. And run they have.

From quick outlet passes to relentless pace, Indiana’s transition game is giving the Bucks fits. Carlisle emphasized the need to “make Giannis run,” saying, “We have to try to wear them down.”

It’s a strategy that’s paid off. And now that Milwaukee is without Lillard, fatigue becomes an even bigger factor.

A Glimmer of Hope: Porter Jr. Steps Up

Kevin Porter Jr. gave Milwaukee a much-needed spark off the bench in Game 4. He dropped 23 points, including five 3-pointers, and added six assists and five boards. It was one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise dark game for the Bucks.

“We just got to keep believing in who we are,” Porter said. “If any team can come back from 3-1, it’s this one.”

It’s the kind of statement you’d expect from a team that still believes in its core. But it’s going to take more than belief—Milwaukee needs a flawless performance in Game 5.

NBA Insider Access

Join for Winning Predictions

Get Free Trial

What About Giannis?

As always, all eyes are on Giannis. The MVP finalist has shown up, but he’s faced double-teams, traps, and now, the added responsibility of carrying the load without Lillard.

Milwaukee needs vintage Giannis—maybe even supercharged Giannis—to steal one in Indy. If he can rally the troops, there’s hope for a comeback story. But the mountain is steep.

Bennedict Mathurin’s Status Could Impact Game 5

One factor worth watching: Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin was sidelined for Game 4 with a bruised abdomen. He’s officially questionable for Game 5.

If he returns, the Pacers get an even deeper rotation and another perimeter threat. If not, expect more minutes for veterans like Buddy Hield and Andrew Nembhard.

Either way, Indiana isn’t short on scorers, and their chemistry is peaking at the right time.

What Milwaukee Needs to Force Game 6

Let’s break it down. To survive Game 5, the Bucks must:

• Slow the game down and control the tempo
• Keep Haliburton from dictating the pace
• Avoid defensive lapses in transition
• Get another breakout game from Porter or Middleton
• Get MVP-caliber play from Giannis for 48 minutes

That’s a tall order, especially without their floor general in Lillard.

Game 5 Matchup Breakdown

FAQs

What happened to Damian Lillard? Lillard suffered a torn left Achilles tendon in Game 4 and will miss the rest of the postseason.

Can the Bucks still win without Lillard? It’s possible but incredibly difficult. Milwaukee must win three straight games, starting with Game 5.

How did Indiana dominate Game 4? They shot 60% from the field, had 36 assists, and limited turnovers, overwhelming Milwaukee with speed and execution.

Who stepped up for Milwaukee in Lillard’s absence? Kevin Porter Jr. delivered 23 points off the bench in Game 4 and will have an expanded role moving forward.

What’s the key for the Bucks to stay alive? Giannis must play at an MVP level, the team must slow the tempo, and role players must contribute offensively.

What’s the status of Bennedict Mathurin? Mathurin missed Game 4 due to a bruised abdomen and is listed as questionable for Game 5.