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NHL Predictions

NHL predictions for every regular-season game, each on its own page before puck drop: the moneyline, our number, the gap between them, and the pick, or no bet when the gap is under five points.

Upcoming games

Wednesday 7 October3 games
NHLWed 7 Oct
Edmonton Oilers
at
Anaheim Ducks
Our call

The Ducks won 24 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 56.1%: bet Anaheim at -104 or better, Edmonton at +158 or better.

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionOilers at Ducks prediction
Thursday 8 October10 games
NHLThu 8 Oct
Dallas Stars
at
Buffalo Sabres
Our call

We make Buffalo 52.4% against Dallas, close to a coin flip. Neither side is a bet as the favourite: the Sabres need +111 or better, the Sta…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionStars at Sabres prediction
Friday 9 October4 games
Saturday 10 October14 games
NHLSat 10 Oct
Minnesota Wild
at
Florida Panthers
SpreadTotalMoneyWIL+1.5U 6.5+130PAN-1.5O 6.5-155
Our call

Our number makes this a coin flip, and the price makes the Wild a 42.8% underdog. Take the Wild at +124.

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionWild at Panthers prediction
Sunday 11 October3 games
Monday 12 October3 games

NHL teams

How a prediction is built

Every NHL regular-season game gets a prediction on this site, posted on its own page before the game. The upcoming games above list today’s predictions alongside the rest of the slate, and each page is free to read. A prediction states four things: the line, our number, the gap between them, and the call.

The number is a win probability for the home team. We take the home team’s win rate at home and average it with the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A win in overtime or in a shootout counts as a win. If the home side wins 60% of its home games and the visitor loses 50% of its road games, the number is 55%.

That number is then set against the moneyline with the sportsbook’s margin removed. The rule is fixed: a gap of five points or more is a bet. Under five points, the page says no bet and gives the reason in the same flat terms. A pass is a result too. It means the price already holds what the team results know.

Reading the moneyline without the margin

Hockey is low scoring, so most NHL betting starts with the moneyline. A price with a minus sign is what you risk to win $100. A price with a plus sign is what a $100 bet wins. Our guide to the moneyline covers the conversions in full.

Each price implies a probability. At -150 the favorite implies 60.0%; at +130 the underdog implies 43.5%. Those add to 103.5%, and the 3.5 points over 100 is the book’s margin, often called the vig. Scale both sides down so they sum to 100 and you get 58.0% and 42.0%. That fair price is what our number is measured against.

So if our number has the favorite at 63.5%, the gap is 5.5 points and the page names the bet. At 61.0% the gap is 3.0 points and the page says no bet. The threshold is printed before the pick, on every page.

The puck line and the total

The puck line is hockey’s point spread, and it is almost always set at 1.5 goals. Take the favorite at -1.5 and they must win by two or more. Take the underdog at +1.5 and the bet wins if they win outright or lose by one.

Many NHL games are decided by a single goal, and an empty net late in a game can turn a one-goal lead into two. That is why the favorite’s puck line usually pays more than its moneyline, and the underdog’s pays less. The total is the combined goals of both teams, and you bet over or under it.

At most US sportsbooks the moneyline, the puck line and the total all include overtime and the shootout. House rules differ, and some books also sell a 60-minute line where a tie after regulation is its own outcome. Check how your book grades a game past 60 minutes before you bet. Our concise guide to hockey betting has more.

What counts as a bet

On this site, a bet is any game where the gap reaches five points. The count on any night is whatever the numbers give, and it can be zero.

Every prediction here shows its number and the price it was set against, so the reasoning can be checked line by line. The pick is never rewritten after the game. It stays on its page as published, win or lose.

The number is built from team results only. It does not know who starts in goal, so starting goalies and late lineup news are worth checking against the price yourself before you bet.

Sizing a bet and where to go next

A gap of five points is a threshold, not a promise. A common way to size bets is the same stake on every play, one unit, which our guide to units in betting explains. New to it all? Start with sports betting for beginners.

For the rest of the sport, the hockey predictions hub is one level up. If you are thinking of paying for picks elsewhere, our handicapper site reviews look at those services one by one.

Questions and answers

Do you publish a prediction for every NHL game?

Every regular-season game, each on its own page before puck drop. The upcoming games above show today’s predictions as they go up.

How is the NHL number calculated?

It averages the home team’s home win rate with the visitor’s road loss rate, counting overtime and shootout wins as wins. That probability is set against the moneyline with the sportsbook’s margin removed.

When does a prediction become a bet?

When our number sits five points or more from the fair price. Under that, the page says no bet.

What is the puck line?

The NHL’s point spread, set at 1.5 goals in almost every game. The favorite has to win by two; the underdog covers by winning or by losing by one.

Are the NHL picks free?

Yes. Every prediction on this site is free to read, and it stays on its page after the game exactly as it was published.

Past games

Tuesday 6 October9 games
NHLTue 6 Oct
New York Islanders
at
New York Rangers
SpreadTotalMoneyISL+1.5U 5.5+130RAN-1.5O 5.5-155
Our call

Take the Islanders on the moneyline at +130. Our number gives them 58.5%, and the price gives them 41.7%; they stay a bet at any price of -…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionIslanders at Rangers prediction
NHLTue 6 Oct
Utah Mammoth
at
New Jersey Devils
SpreadTotalMoneyMAM+1.5U 5.5+114DEV-1.5O 5.5-135
Our call

Our number makes this a coin flip, and the price makes the Mammoth a 44.9% underdog. Take the Mammoth at +114; it stays a bet at +113, and…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionMammoth at Devils prediction
Monday 5 October4 games
NHLMon 5 Oct
Ottawa Senators
at
Boston Bruins
Our call

The Bruins won 29 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 59.8%: bet the Bruins at -121 or better, the Senators at +184 or better.

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionSenators at Bruins prediction
NHLMon 5 Oct
San Jose Sharks
at
Dallas Stars
Our call

The Stars won 26 of 41 at home and the Sharks lost 23 of 41 on the road. Our number makes Dallas 59.8%: bet the Stars at -121 or better, Sa…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionSharks at Stars prediction
Sunday 4 October5 games
NHLSun 4 Oct
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Vancouver Canucks
SpreadTotalMoneyKNI-1.5U 6.5-230CAN+1.5O 6.5+190
Our call

The Canucks won 9 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes the Golden Knights 62.2%: bet the Golden Knights at -133 or better, the Canuc…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionKnights at Canucks prediction
NHLSun 4 Oct
Winnipeg Jets
at
Detroit Red Wings
SpreadTotalMoneyJET+1.5U 5.5-105WIN-1.5O 5.5-115
Our call

The Jets lost 25 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes the Red Wings 56.1%: bet the Red Wings at -104 or better, the Jets at +157…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionJets at Wings prediction
NHLSun 4 Oct
Utah Mammoth
at
New York Rangers
SpreadTotalMoneyMAM+1.5U 5.5+114RAN-1.5O 5.5-135
Our call

The Rangers won 14 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes the Mammoth 58.5%: bet the Mammoth at -115 or better, the Rangers at +174 or…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionMammoth at Rangers prediction
Saturday 3 October13 games
NHLSat 3 Oct
Seattle Kraken
at
Edmonton Oilers
Our call

The Kraken lost 26 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes the Oilers 58.5%: bet the Oilers at -115 or better, the Kraken at +174 o…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionKraken at Oilers prediction
Friday 2 October5 games
NHLFri 2 Oct
St Louis Blues
at
Dallas Stars
SpreadTotalMoneyBLU+1.5U 5.5+170STA-1.5O 5.5-205
Our call

The Stars are the right favourite, and -205 is about the right price. No bet.

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionBlues at Stars prediction
NHLFri 2 Oct
Washington Capitals
at
Carolina Hurricanes
SpreadTotalMoneyCAP+1.5U 6.5+124HUR-1.5O 6.5-148
Our call

The Hurricanes won 29 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 63.4%: bet the Hurricanes at -140 or better, the Capitals at +216 or…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionCapitals at Hurricanes prediction
NHLFri 2 Oct
Anaheim Ducks
at
Vegas Golden Knights
SpreadTotalMoneyDUC+1.5U 6.5+154KNI-1.5O 6.5-185
Our call

The Ducks lost 22 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes the Golden Knights 51.2%: bet the Golden Knights at +117 or better, the D…

Tyler WilliamsRead the predictionDucks at Knights prediction
Thursday 1 October8 games
Wednesday 30 September3 games
Tuesday 29 September5 games